KMSP / Fri Sep 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST35%Sep 15 · 15:34 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

85%

53%

22%

Consensus

35%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 44.7¢Risks 44.70u

HRESNO 55.3¢Risks 55.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +55.30u · HRES −55.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-15T15:34:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-12T03:17:45+00:00	88.8%	62.7%	78.2%	42.3%	74.3%
2026-09-12T04:02:55+00:00	88.8%	62.7%	78.2%	42.3%	74.3%
2026-09-12T04:48:00+00:00	88.8%	62.7%	78.2%	42.3%	74.3%
2026-09-12T05:33:06+00:00	88.8%	62.7%	89.6%	42.3%	74.3%
2026-09-12T06:18:14+00:00	88.8%	62.7%	89.6%	42.3%	74.3%
2026-09-12T07:03:19+00:00	88.8%	62.7%	89.6%	42.3%	74.3%
2026-09-12T07:48:31+00:00	76.7%	62.7%	89.6%	11.2%	65.0%
2026-09-12T08:33:45+00:00	76.7%	62.7%	89.6%	11.2%	65.0%
2026-09-12T09:18:50+00:00	76.7%	62.7%	89.6%	11.2%	65.0%
2026-09-12T10:03:55+00:00	76.7%	62.7%	89.6%	11.2%	65.0%
2026-09-12T10:49:00+00:00	76.7%	62.7%	89.6%	11.2%	65.0%
2026-09-12T11:34:07+00:00	76.7%	71.1%	79.7%	11.2%	65.0%
2026-09-12T12:19:16+00:00	76.7%	71.1%	79.7%	11.2%	65.0%
2026-09-12T13:04:22+00:00	76.7%	71.1%	79.7%	11.2%	65.0%
2026-09-12T13:49:30+00:00	73.7%	71.1%	79.7%	11.2%	65.0%
2026-09-12T14:35:00+00:00	73.7%	71.1%	79.7%	16.9%	65.0%
2026-09-13T17:39:51+00:00	61.0%	75.9%	71.1%	24.2%	18.0%
2026-09-13T18:25:00+00:00	61.0%	75.9%	71.1%	24.2%	18.0%
2026-09-13T19:10:04+00:00	61.0%	75.9%	71.1%	24.2%	18.0%
2026-09-13T19:55:10+00:00	49.2%	75.9%	71.1%	11.2%	18.0%
2026-09-13T20:40:15+00:00	49.2%	75.9%	71.1%	11.2%	18.0%
2026-09-13T21:25:20+00:00	49.2%	75.9%	71.1%	11.2%	18.0%
2026-09-13T22:10:24+00:00	49.2%	75.9%	71.1%	11.2%	18.0%
2026-09-13T22:55:29+00:00	49.2%	73.4%	70.3%	11.2%	18.0%
2026-09-13T23:40:34+00:00	49.2%	73.4%	70.3%	11.2%	18.0%
2026-09-14T00:25:40+00:00	49.2%	73.4%	70.3%	11.2%	18.0%
2026-09-14T01:10:47+00:00	49.2%	73.4%	70.3%	11.2%	18.0%
2026-09-14T01:55:52+00:00	30.8%	73.4%	70.3%	11.2%	18.0%
2026-09-14T02:40:57+00:00	30.8%	73.4%	70.3%	11.2%	18.0%
2026-09-14T03:26:02+00:00	30.8%	73.4%	70.3%	11.2%	18.0%
2026-09-14T15:28:39+00:00	60.9%	78.8%	85.1%	48.4%	81.2%
2026-09-14T16:13:51+00:00	60.9%	78.8%	85.1%	48.4%	81.2%
2026-09-14T16:58:57+00:00	60.9%	78.8%	85.1%	48.4%	81.2%
2026-09-14T17:44:02+00:00	60.9%	78.8%	62.1%	48.4%	81.2%
2026-09-14T18:29:11+00:00	60.9%	78.8%	62.1%	48.4%	81.2%
2026-09-14T19:14:15+00:00	60.9%	78.8%	62.1%	48.4%	81.2%
2026-09-14T19:59:21+00:00	37.5%	78.8%	62.1%	17.7%	28.4%
2026-09-14T20:44:27+00:00	37.5%	78.8%	62.1%	17.7%	28.4%
2026-09-14T21:29:32+00:00	37.5%	78.8%	62.1%	17.7%	28.4%
2026-09-14T22:14:37+00:00	37.5%	78.8%	62.1%	17.7%	28.4%
2026-09-14T22:59:42+00:00	37.5%	75.7%	59.1%	17.7%	28.4%
2026-09-14T23:44:51+00:00	37.5%	75.9%	59.1%	17.7%	28.4%
2026-09-15T00:29:57+00:00	37.5%	75.9%	59.1%	17.7%	28.4%
2026-09-15T01:15:04+00:00	37.5%	75.9%	59.1%	17.7%	28.4%
2026-09-15T02:00:10+00:00	42.4%	75.9%	59.1%	17.7%	28.4%
2026-09-15T02:45:15+00:00	42.4%	75.9%	59.1%	17.7%	28.4%
2026-09-15T03:30:26+00:00	42.4%	75.9%	59.1%	17.7%	28.4%
2026-09-15T04:15:40+00:00	42.4%	75.9%	59.1%	17.7%	28.4%
2026-09-15T05:00:45+00:00	42.4%	75.9%	59.1%	17.7%	28.4%
2026-09-15T05:45:51+00:00	42.4%	75.9%	57.1%	17.7%	28.4%
2026-09-15T06:30:59+00:00	42.4%	75.9%	57.1%	17.7%	28.4%
2026-09-15T07:16:04+00:00	42.4%	75.9%	57.1%	17.7%	28.4%
2026-09-15T08:01:24+00:00	21.5%	75.9%	57.1%	4.5%	6.1%
2026-09-15T08:46:42+00:00	21.5%	75.9%	57.1%	4.5%	6.1%
2026-09-15T09:31:47+00:00	21.5%	75.9%	57.1%	4.5%	6.1%
2026-09-15T10:16:53+00:00	21.5%	75.9%	57.1%	4.5%	6.1%
2026-09-15T11:02:06+00:00	21.5%	85.0%	53.3%	4.5%	6.1%
2026-09-15T11:47:17+00:00	21.5%	85.0%	53.3%	4.5%	6.1%
2026-09-15T12:32:22+00:00	21.5%	85.0%	53.3%	4.5%	6.1%
2026-09-15T13:17:27+00:00	21.5%	85.0%	53.3%	4.5%	6.1%
2026-09-15T14:02:37+00:00	22.2%	85.0%	53.3%	4.5%	6.1%
2026-09-15T14:48:53+00:00	22.2%	85.0%	53.3%	11.8%	6.2%
2026-09-15T15:34:00+00:00	22.2%	84.9%	53.3%	4.5%	6.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	85%	75.5°F	2.9°F	2026-09-15 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	73.0°F	3.9°F	2026-09-15 03:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	53%	72.8°F	3.7°F	2026-09-15 00:00	Pending
National Blend	34%	68.8°F	9.2°F	2026-09-15 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	22%	69.1°F	4.4°F	2026-09-15 06:00	Pending
ICON	6%	66.5°F	3.9°F	2026-09-15 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	4%	64.8°F	4.5°F	2026-09-15 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260918-TMAX-GE73
Opened Sep 12 · 03:17 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 73°F · Fri Sep 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗