KMSP / Fri Sep 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST35%Sep 15 · 15:34 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

85%

53%

22%

Consensus

35%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 44.7¢Risks 44.70u

HRESNO 55.3¢Risks 55.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +55.30u · HRES −55.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	6.3%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	53.7%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	—	—	—	38.5%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	30.1%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	17.1%	—	—	—	—	20.0%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	4.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	18.1%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	13.0%	—	—	—	—	18.5%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	24.0%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	8.2%	—	7.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	30.2%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	21.1%	—	16.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	0.1%	—	—	18.9%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	75.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	91.5%	—	37.2%	23.6%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	19.4%	—	79.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	19.4%	1.1%	0.0%	—	—	40.0%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	61.6%	—	17.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	58.4%	—	54.2%	13.0%	—	46.5%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	69.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	47.1%	—	49.3%	65.7%	—	29.7%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	71.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	21.1%	—	71.7%	37.2%	—	21.1%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	16.4%	—	37.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	13.6%	—	60.3%	60.3%	—	23.0%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	29.0%	—	15.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	19.5%	—	—	41.7%	—	17.8%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	7.0%	—	5.4%	—	—	20.1%
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	20.2%	—	96.1%	59.6%	—	29.1%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	25.7%	32.6%	8.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	9.0%	—	18.4%	15.4%	—	6.6%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	11.3%	22.4%	4.2%	—	—	3.6%
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	2.7%	5.9%	4.6%	21.8%	—	1.6%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	2.5%	3.4%	7.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	2.5%	1.1%	4.4%	19.7%	—	0.9%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	3.5%	0.8%	3.0%	—	—	0.8%
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	0.5%	4.5%	9.9%	0.1%	0.5%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.5%	10.7%	7.9%	—	0.3%
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.4%	9.0%	11.0%	0.0%	0.1%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.2%	0.7%	7.0%	—	0.1%
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%	6.7%	—	0.1%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.3%	0.1%	6.8%	—	0.0%
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	2.2%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.5%	—	0.0%
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	85%	75.5°F	2.9°F	2026-09-15 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	73.0°F	3.9°F	2026-09-15 03:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	53%	72.8°F	3.7°F	2026-09-15 00:00	Pending
National Blend	34%	68.8°F	9.2°F	2026-09-15 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	22%	69.1°F	4.4°F	2026-09-15 06:00	Pending
ICON	6%	66.5°F	3.9°F	2026-09-15 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	4%	64.8°F	4.5°F	2026-09-15 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260918-TMAX-GE73
Opened Sep 12 · 03:17 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 73°F · Fri Sep 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗