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KMSP / Fri Sep 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST32%Sep 13 · 03:21 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
48%
HRES
35%
EPS
31%
AIFS
19%
ICON
14%
Consensus
32%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 30.9¢Risks 30.90u
VS
ICONNO 69.1¢Risks 69.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +69.10u · ICON −69.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 45.5% · 2026-09-12T15:20:11+00:00AIFS Single: 45.5% · 2026-09-12T16:05:22+00:00AIFS Single: 45.5% · 2026-09-12T16:50:27+00:00AIFS Single: 45.5% · 2026-09-12T17:35:33+00:00AIFS Single: 45.5% · 2026-09-12T18:20:42+00:00AIFS Single: 45.5% · 2026-09-12T19:05:46+00:00AIFS Single: 22.8% · 2026-09-12T19:50:51+00:00AIFS Single: 22.8% · 2026-09-12T20:35:58+00:00AIFS Single: 22.8% · 2026-09-12T21:21:03+00:00AIFS Single: 22.8% · 2026-09-12T22:06:08+00:00AIFS Single: 22.8% · 2026-09-12T22:51:14+00:00AIFS Single: 22.8% · 2026-09-12T23:36:20+00:00AIFS Single: 22.8% · 2026-09-13T00:21:26+00:00AIFS Single: 22.8% · 2026-09-13T01:06:33+00:00AIFS Single: 19.0% · 2026-09-13T01:51:43+00:00AIFS Single: 19.0% · 2026-09-13T02:36:53+00:00AIFS Single: 19.0% · 2026-09-13T03:21:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 27.4% · 2026-09-12T15:20:11+00:00IFS Ensemble: 27.4% · 2026-09-12T16:05:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 27.4% · 2026-09-12T16:50:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 27.4% · 2026-09-12T17:35:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 27.4% · 2026-09-12T18:20:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 27.4% · 2026-09-12T19:05:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 27.4% · 2026-09-12T19:50:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 27.4% · 2026-09-12T20:35:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 27.4% · 2026-09-12T21:21:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 27.4% · 2026-09-12T22:06:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 27.4% · 2026-09-12T22:51:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 30.9% · 2026-09-12T23:36:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 30.9% · 2026-09-13T00:21:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 30.9% · 2026-09-13T01:06:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 30.9% · 2026-09-13T01:51:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 30.9% · 2026-09-13T02:36:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 30.9% · 2026-09-13T03:21:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 47.3% · 2026-09-12T15:20:11+00:00WeatherNext 2: 47.3% · 2026-09-12T16:05:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 47.3% · 2026-09-12T16:50:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 49.1% · 2026-09-12T17:35:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 49.1% · 2026-09-12T18:20:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 49.1% · 2026-09-12T19:05:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 49.1% · 2026-09-12T19:50:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 49.1% · 2026-09-12T20:35:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 49.1% · 2026-09-12T21:21:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 49.1% · 2026-09-12T22:06:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 49.1% · 2026-09-12T22:51:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 48.2% · 2026-09-12T23:36:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 48.2% · 2026-09-13T00:21:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 48.2% · 2026-09-13T01:06:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 48.2% · 2026-09-13T01:51:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 48.2% · 2026-09-13T02:36:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 48.2% · 2026-09-13T03:21:58+00:00IFS HRES: 3.4% · 2026-09-12T15:20:11+00:00IFS HRES: 3.4% · 2026-09-12T16:05:22+00:00IFS HRES: 3.4% · 2026-09-12T16:50:27+00:00IFS HRES: 3.4% · 2026-09-12T17:35:33+00:00IFS HRES: 3.4% · 2026-09-12T18:20:42+00:00IFS HRES: 3.4% · 2026-09-12T19:05:46+00:00IFS HRES: 3.4% · 2026-09-12T19:50:51+00:00IFS HRES: 3.4% · 2026-09-12T20:35:58+00:00IFS HRES: 3.4% · 2026-09-12T21:21:03+00:00IFS HRES: 3.4% · 2026-09-12T22:06:08+00:00IFS HRES: 35.3% · 2026-09-12T22:51:14+00:00IFS HRES: 35.3% · 2026-09-12T23:36:20+00:00IFS HRES: 35.3% · 2026-09-13T00:21:26+00:00IFS HRES: 35.3% · 2026-09-13T01:06:33+00:00IFS HRES: 35.3% · 2026-09-13T01:51:43+00:00IFS HRES: 35.3% · 2026-09-13T02:36:53+00:00IFS HRES: 35.3% · 2026-09-13T03:21:58+00:00ICON: 41.8% · 2026-09-12T15:20:11+00:00ICON: 41.8% · 2026-09-12T16:05:22+00:00ICON: 41.8% · 2026-09-12T16:50:27+00:00ICON: 41.8% · 2026-09-12T17:35:33+00:00ICON: 41.8% · 2026-09-12T18:20:42+00:00ICON: 41.8% · 2026-09-12T19:05:46+00:00ICON: 13.6% · 2026-09-12T19:50:51+00:00ICON: 13.6% · 2026-09-12T20:35:58+00:00ICON: 13.6% · 2026-09-12T21:21:03+00:00ICON: 13.6% · 2026-09-12T22:06:08+00:00ICON: 13.6% · 2026-09-12T22:51:14+00:00ICON: 13.6% · 2026-09-12T23:36:20+00:00ICON: 13.6% · 2026-09-13T00:21:26+00:00ICON: 13.6% · 2026-09-13T01:06:33+00:00ICON: 13.6% · 2026-09-13T01:51:43+00:00ICON: 13.6% · 2026-09-13T02:36:53+00:00ICON: 13.6% · 2026-09-13T03:21:58+00:0009-12 15:2009-12 21:2109-13 03:21
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-09-13T03:21:58+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-09-12T15:20:11+00:0045.5%27.4%47.3%3.4%41.8%
2026-09-12T16:05:22+00:0045.5%27.4%47.3%3.4%41.8%
2026-09-12T16:50:27+00:0045.5%27.4%47.3%3.4%41.8%
2026-09-12T17:35:33+00:0045.5%27.4%49.1%3.4%41.8%
2026-09-12T18:20:42+00:0045.5%27.4%49.1%3.4%41.8%
2026-09-12T19:05:46+00:0045.5%27.4%49.1%3.4%41.8%
2026-09-12T19:50:51+00:0022.8%27.4%49.1%3.4%13.6%
2026-09-12T20:35:58+00:0022.8%27.4%49.1%3.4%13.6%
2026-09-12T21:21:03+00:0022.8%27.4%49.1%3.4%13.6%
2026-09-12T22:06:08+00:0022.8%27.4%49.1%3.4%13.6%
2026-09-12T22:51:14+00:0022.8%27.4%49.1%35.3%13.6%
2026-09-12T23:36:20+00:0022.8%30.9%48.2%35.3%13.6%
2026-09-13T00:21:26+00:0022.8%30.9%48.2%35.3%13.6%
2026-09-13T01:06:33+00:0022.8%30.9%48.2%35.3%13.6%
2026-09-13T01:51:43+00:0019.0%30.9%48.2%35.3%13.6%
2026-09-13T02:36:53+00:0019.0%30.9%48.2%35.3%13.6%
2026-09-13T03:21:58+00:0019.0%30.9%48.2%35.3%13.6%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
NWS forecast53%77.0°F5.8°F2026-09-12 14:00Pending
WeatherNext 248%76.3°F4.5°F2026-09-12 12:00Pending
National Blend45%75.5°F7.7°F2026-09-12 06:00Pending
IFS HRES35%74.0°F6.7°F2026-09-12 12:00Pending
IFS Ensemble31%75.0°F3.0°F2026-09-12 00:00Pending
AIFS Single19%71.8°F5.4°F2026-09-12 18:00Pending
ICON14%69.1°F6.7°F2026-09-12 12:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260918-TMAX-GE77
Opened Sep 12 · 15:20 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 77°F · Fri Sep 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗