KMSP / Fri Sep 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST32%Sep 13 · 03:21 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

48%

35%

31%

19%

14%

Consensus

32%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 30.9¢Risks 30.90u

ICONNO 69.1¢Risks 69.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +69.10u · ICON −69.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.9%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	30.1%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	16.9%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	14.6%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	11.2%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	8.4%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	7.2%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	7.1%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	9.8%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	2.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	27.2%	—	—	—	—	13.0%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	5.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	0.0%	—	—	6.5%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	51.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	76.4%	—	16.4%	8.5%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	56.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	6.2%	0.1%	0.0%	—	—	17.6%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	5.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	27.5%	3.3%	—	21.4%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	41.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	21.0%	—	22.6%	37.1%	—	10.3%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	17.4%	—	42.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	42.4%	13.8%	—	5.8%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	13.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	29.5%	29.5%	—	6.2%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	3.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	14.8%	—	3.9%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	0.7%	—	—	4.5%
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	81.0%	26.2%	—	7.7%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	6.0%	8.8%	1.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	3.4%	2.6%	—	0.8%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	1.5%	4.4%	0.4%	—	—	0.3%
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.6%	0.4%	4.0%	—	0.1%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.2%	0.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.0%	0.3%	3.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.0%	0.2%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.3%	0.9%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.9%	0.5%	—	0.0%
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.6%	0.8%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.4%	—	0.0%
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.3%	—	0.0%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.3%	—	0.0%
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	53%	77.0°F	5.8°F	2026-09-12 14:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	48%	76.3°F	4.5°F	2026-09-12 12:00	Pending
National Blend	45%	75.5°F	7.7°F	2026-09-12 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	35%	74.0°F	6.7°F	2026-09-12 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	31%	75.0°F	3.0°F	2026-09-12 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	19%	71.8°F	5.4°F	2026-09-12 18:00	Pending
ICON	14%	69.1°F	6.7°F	2026-09-12 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260918-TMAX-GE77
Opened Sep 12 · 15:20 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 77°F · Fri Sep 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗