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KMSP / Sun Sep 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 74°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST33%Sep 13 · 10:53 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
58%
WN2
34%
ICON
32%
AIFS
21%
HRES
16%
Consensus
33%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 37.1¢Risks 37.15u
VS
HRESNO 62.9¢Risks 62.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +62.85u · HRES −62.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 20.8% · 2026-09-13T07:52:53+00:00AIFS Single: 20.8% · 2026-09-13T08:38:12+00:00AIFS Single: 20.8% · 2026-09-13T09:23:17+00:00AIFS Single: 20.8% · 2026-09-13T10:08:23+00:00AIFS Single: 20.8% · 2026-09-13T10:53:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 58.2% · 2026-09-13T07:52:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 58.2% · 2026-09-13T08:38:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 58.2% · 2026-09-13T09:23:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 58.2% · 2026-09-13T10:08:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 58.2% · 2026-09-13T10:53:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 34.0% · 2026-09-13T07:52:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 34.0% · 2026-09-13T08:38:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 34.0% · 2026-09-13T09:23:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 34.0% · 2026-09-13T10:08:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 34.0% · 2026-09-13T10:53:31+00:00IFS HRES: 16.1% · 2026-09-13T07:52:53+00:00IFS HRES: 16.1% · 2026-09-13T08:38:12+00:00IFS HRES: 16.1% · 2026-09-13T09:23:17+00:00IFS HRES: 16.1% · 2026-09-13T10:08:23+00:00IFS HRES: 16.1% · 2026-09-13T10:53:31+00:00ICON: 32.3% · 2026-09-13T07:52:53+00:00ICON: 32.3% · 2026-09-13T08:38:12+00:00ICON: 32.3% · 2026-09-13T09:23:17+00:00ICON: 32.3% · 2026-09-13T10:08:23+00:00ICON: 32.3% · 2026-09-13T10:53:31+00:0009-13 07:5209-13 09:2309-13 10:53
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-09-13T10:53:31+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-09-13T07:52:53+00:0020.8%58.2%34.0%16.1%32.3%
2026-09-13T08:38:12+00:0020.8%58.2%34.0%16.1%32.3%
2026-09-13T09:23:17+00:0020.8%58.2%34.0%16.1%32.3%
2026-09-13T10:08:23+00:0020.8%58.2%34.0%16.1%32.3%
2026-09-13T10:53:31+00:0020.8%58.2%34.0%16.1%32.3%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble58%74.5°F4.8°F2026-09-12 00:00Pending
National Blend55%74.4°F6.7°F2026-09-13 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 234%71.4°F5.1°F2026-09-12 12:00Pending
ICON32%69.0°F9.8°F2026-09-13 00:00Pending
AIFS Single21%69.0°F5.5°F2026-09-13 00:00Pending
IFS HRES16%67.4°F6.2°F2026-09-13 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 74°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260920-TMAX-GE74
Opened Sep 13 · 07:52 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 74°F · Sun Sep 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗