KMSP / Sun Sep 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 74°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST33%Sep 13 · 10:53 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

58%

34%

32%

21%

16%

Consensus

33%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 37.1¢Risks 37.15u

HRESNO 62.9¢Risks 62.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +62.85u · HRES −62.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.8%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	24.4%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	13.4%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	17.2%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	9.6%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	26.0%	—	—	—	—	20.3%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	43.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	31.0%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	28.0%	—	—	—	20.4%	22.5%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	20.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	26.8%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	40.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	21.0%	—	—	—	—	23.3%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	25.9%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	82.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	22.1%	—	50.0%	—	—	21.2%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	16.3%	—	79.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	18.9%	—	—	26.0%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	15.0%	—	12.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	6.0%	—	—	1.0%	—	21.9%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	3.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	0.7%	23.2%	—	20.4%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	14.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	34.4%	—	12.5%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	33.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	6.9%	1.2%	0.2%	35.2%	—	9.3%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	1.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	17.3%	13.4%	0.9%	32.2%	—	6.6%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	11.1%	0.9%	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	5.7%	0.6%	2.2%	36.3%	—	8.3%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	6.6%	5.2%	19.6%	—	—	0.2%
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	2.5%	1.0%	28.9%	38.2%	—	13.4%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	4.6%	8.4%	6.1%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	7.2%	42.3%	25.5%	31.3%	—	12.6%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	5.4%	19.7%	18.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	6.1%	31.2%	24.3%	27.6%	—	11.8%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	3.0%	25.3%	19.0%	—	—	7.6%
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	1.4%	23.0%	23.0%	30.1%	—	6.6%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	1.7%	12.3%	16.8%	0.0%	—	4.8%
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	1.8%	17.5%	11.0%	27.0%	6.1%	5.7%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	1.3%	16.7%	0.1%	19.1%	—	3.5%
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	10.6%	2.8%	11.2%	7.5%	3.3%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	1.5%	7.7%	5.6%	13.5%	—	4.0%
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	4.0%	7.9%	11.3%	3.2%	3.0%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	2.7%	6.7%	9.2%	—	1.8%
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	5.1%	6.3%	10.8%	3.2%	1.3%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	5.1%	1.4%	5.1%	—	0.7%
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.2%	1.6%	1.8%	1.0%	0.2%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.2%	0.2%	0.2%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	58%	74.5°F	4.8°F	2026-09-12 00:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	74.4°F	6.7°F	2026-09-13 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	34%	71.4°F	5.1°F	2026-09-12 12:00	Pending
ICON	32%	69.0°F	9.8°F	2026-09-13 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	21%	69.0°F	5.5°F	2026-09-13 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	16%	67.4°F	6.2°F	2026-09-13 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 74°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260920-TMAX-GE74
Opened Sep 13 · 07:52 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 74°F · Sun Sep 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗