KMSP / Mon Sep 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST54%Sep 20 · 14:33 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

80%

29%

11%

10%

Consensus

54%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 54.5¢Risks 54.50u

HRESNO 45.5¢Risks 45.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +45.50u · HRES −45.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-20T14:33:35+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-17T15:00:50+00:00	67.3%	99.5%	87.1%	76.2%	94.1%
2026-09-17T15:46:03+00:00	67.3%	99.6%	87.1%	76.2%	94.1%
2026-09-17T16:31:12+00:00	67.3%	99.6%	87.1%	76.2%	80.6%
2026-09-17T17:16:20+00:00	67.3%	99.6%	82.9%	76.2%	80.6%
2026-09-17T18:01:25+00:00	67.3%	99.6%	82.9%	76.2%	80.6%
2026-09-17T18:46:34+00:00	67.3%	99.6%	82.9%	76.2%	80.6%
2026-09-17T19:31:39+00:00	50.0%	99.6%	82.9%	76.2%	80.6%
2026-09-17T20:16:44+00:00	50.0%	99.6%	82.9%	76.2%	80.6%
2026-09-17T21:01:49+00:00	50.0%	99.6%	82.9%	76.2%	80.6%
2026-09-17T21:46:54+00:00	50.0%	99.6%	82.9%	76.2%	80.6%
2026-09-17T22:31:59+00:00	50.0%	99.6%	82.9%	76.2%	80.6%
2026-09-17T23:17:05+00:00	50.0%	99.7%	80.2%	76.2%	80.6%
2026-09-18T00:02:10+00:00	50.0%	99.7%	80.2%	76.2%	80.6%
2026-09-18T00:47:17+00:00	50.0%	99.7%	80.2%	76.2%	80.6%
2026-09-18T01:32:23+00:00	54.3%	99.7%	80.2%	76.2%	80.6%
2026-09-18T02:17:28+00:00	54.3%	99.7%	80.2%	76.2%	80.6%
2026-09-18T03:02:44+00:00	54.3%	99.7%	80.2%	76.2%	80.6%
2026-09-18T03:48:04+00:00	54.3%	99.7%	80.2%	76.2%	80.6%
2026-09-18T04:33:08+00:00	54.3%	99.7%	80.2%	76.2%	71.5%
2026-09-18T05:18:14+00:00	54.3%	99.7%	80.2%	76.2%	71.5%
2026-09-18T06:03:19+00:00	54.3%	99.7%	80.2%	76.2%	71.5%
2026-09-18T06:48:27+00:00	54.3%	99.7%	80.2%	76.2%	71.5%
2026-09-18T07:33:44+00:00	45.5%	99.7%	80.2%	74.7%	71.5%
2026-09-18T08:19:07+00:00	45.5%	99.7%	80.2%	74.7%	71.5%
2026-09-18T09:04:15+00:00	45.5%	99.7%	80.2%	74.7%	71.5%
2026-09-18T09:49:20+00:00	45.5%	99.7%	80.2%	74.7%	71.5%
2026-09-18T10:34:39+00:00	45.5%	99.7%	80.2%	74.7%	71.5%
2026-09-18T11:20:05+00:00	45.5%	99.9%	80.2%	74.7%	71.5%
2026-09-18T12:05:15+00:00	45.5%	99.9%	80.2%	74.7%	71.5%
2026-09-18T12:50:20+00:00	45.5%	99.9%	80.2%	74.7%	71.5%
2026-09-18T13:35:26+00:00	24.8%	99.9%	80.2%	74.7%	71.5%
2026-09-18T14:21:55+00:00	24.8%	99.9%	80.2%	74.7%	71.4%
2026-09-18T15:07:11+00:00	24.8%	99.9%	80.2%	74.7%	71.4%
2026-09-18T15:52:25+00:00	24.8%	99.9%	80.2%	74.7%	71.4%
2026-09-18T16:37:31+00:00	24.8%	99.9%	80.2%	74.7%	84.8%
2026-09-18T17:22:37+00:00	24.8%	99.9%	80.2%	74.7%	84.8%
2026-09-18T18:07:41+00:00	24.8%	99.9%	80.2%	74.7%	84.8%
2026-09-18T18:52:51+00:00	24.8%	99.9%	80.2%	74.7%	84.8%
2026-09-18T19:37:55+00:00	48.2%	99.9%	80.2%	74.7%	84.8%
2026-09-18T20:23:00+00:00	48.2%	99.9%	80.2%	74.7%	84.8%
2026-09-18T21:08:05+00:00	48.2%	99.9%	80.2%	74.7%	84.8%
2026-09-18T21:53:09+00:00	48.2%	99.9%	80.2%	74.7%	84.8%
2026-09-18T22:38:16+00:00	48.2%	99.9%	80.2%	56.2%	84.8%
2026-09-18T23:23:21+00:00	48.2%	99.9%	80.2%	56.2%	84.8%
2026-09-19T00:08:25+00:00	48.2%	99.9%	80.2%	56.2%	84.8%
2026-09-19T00:53:33+00:00	48.2%	99.9%	80.2%	56.2%	84.8%
2026-09-19T01:38:38+00:00	41.9%	99.9%	80.2%	56.2%	84.8%
2026-09-19T02:23:43+00:00	41.9%	99.9%	80.2%	56.2%	84.8%
2026-09-20T03:14:49+00:00	30.1%	99.0%	80.2%	33.1%	43.2%
2026-09-20T04:00:04+00:00	30.1%	99.0%	80.2%	33.1%	43.2%
2026-09-20T04:45:09+00:00	30.1%	99.0%	80.2%	33.1%	11.2%
2026-09-20T05:30:15+00:00	30.1%	99.0%	80.2%	33.1%	11.2%
2026-09-20T06:15:20+00:00	30.1%	99.0%	80.2%	33.1%	11.2%
2026-09-20T07:00:27+00:00	30.1%	99.0%	80.2%	33.1%	11.2%
2026-09-20T07:45:47+00:00	28.7%	99.0%	80.2%	10.5%	11.2%
2026-09-20T08:31:13+00:00	28.7%	99.0%	80.2%	10.5%	11.2%
2026-09-20T09:16:18+00:00	28.7%	99.0%	80.2%	10.5%	11.2%
2026-09-20T10:01:22+00:00	28.7%	99.0%	80.2%	10.5%	11.2%
2026-09-20T10:46:27+00:00	28.7%	99.0%	80.2%	10.5%	11.2%
2026-09-20T11:31:35+00:00	28.7%	98.6%	80.2%	10.5%	11.2%
2026-09-20T12:16:52+00:00	28.7%	98.6%	80.2%	10.5%	11.2%
2026-09-20T13:01:57+00:00	28.7%	98.6%	80.2%	10.5%	11.2%
2026-09-20T13:47:04+00:00	28.7%	98.6%	80.2%	10.5%	11.2%
2026-09-20T14:33:35+00:00	28.7%	98.5%	80.1%	10.5%	11.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	98%	69.7°F	2.8°F	2026-09-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	80%	66.8°F	3.9°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	64.0°F	3.1°F	2026-09-20 02:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	63.0°F	3.6°F	2026-09-20 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	29%	61.2°F	4.1°F	2026-09-20 06:00	Pending
ICON	11%	59.2°F	3.5°F	2026-09-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	10%	58.8°F	3.8°F	2026-09-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260921-TMAX-GE64
Opened Sep 17 · 15:00 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 64°F · Mon Sep 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗