KMSP / Mon Sep 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST54%Sep 20 · 14:33 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

80%

29%

11%

10%

Consensus

54%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 54.5¢Risks 54.50u

HRESNO 45.5¢Risks 45.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +45.50u · HRES −45.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	11.8%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	90.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	60.0%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	93.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	—	—	—	72.6%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	64.5%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	56.4%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	81.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	68.4%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	92.7%	—	—	—	—	65.0%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	95.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	98.6%	—	—	—	—	80.3%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	97.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	75.7%	—	—	—	—	73.1%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	61.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	60.3%	—	—	—	—	73.3%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	63.7%	—	17.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	48.3%	—	—	—	—	76.2%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	40.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	51.8%	—	—	—	—	84.8%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	65.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	82.3%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	43.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	89.3%	—	—	—	—	84.7%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	86.6%	—	18.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	87.0%	—	—	—	—	86.3%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	52.6%	—	26.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	23.8%	—	—	76.7%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	25.6%	—	43.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	46.5%	—	—	64.4%	—	77.0%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	50.7%	—	79.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	25.4%	—	6.6%	92.9%	—	75.1%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	26.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	18.4%	42.4%	27.0%	86.7%	—	64.2%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	20.6%	—	4.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	16.4%	18.4%	3.4%	72.6%	—	62.5%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	17.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	1.9%	45.0%	14.3%	83.8%	—	47.5%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	3.3%	42.4%	13.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	15.6%	90.6%	29.9%	77.2%	—	50.0%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	32.6%	67.4%	4.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	16.6%	73.4%	53.7%	76.3%	—	50.9%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	19.0%	28.4%	14.8%	—	—	40.6%
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	12.1%	66.1%	10.7%	60.6%	—	42.3%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	3.2%	34.4%	38.2%	—	—	33.5%
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	12.3%	81.7%	83.0%	83.7%	—	33.0%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	8.8%	81.0%	81.0%	—	—	27.1%
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	3.3%	68.9%	72.7%	52.2%	45.6%	23.0%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	3.8%	56.7%	31.5%	3.5%	—	23.1%
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	2.2%	47.7%	57.0%	14.7%	22.4%	19.9%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	2.7%	58.4%	8.2%	47.6%	—	15.2%
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	2.1%	18.2%	7.5%	46.3%	—	15.1%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	4.3%	2.8%	16.6%	—	10.3%
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	2.8%	24.0%	0.7%	16.5%	15.7%	7.9%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	3.2%	13.9%	0.3%	3.2%	—	4.3%
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	2.7%	1.0%	0.4%	13.8%	5.1%	8.3%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	0.2%	1.1%	7.5%	—	3.4%
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	0.1%	22.6%	15.2%	31.7%	1.0%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	0.6%	26.7%	26.7%	—	3.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	98%	69.7°F	2.8°F	2026-09-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	80%	66.8°F	3.9°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	64.0°F	3.1°F	2026-09-20 02:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	63.0°F	3.6°F	2026-09-20 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	29%	61.2°F	4.1°F	2026-09-20 06:00	Pending
ICON	11%	59.2°F	3.5°F	2026-09-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	10%	58.8°F	3.8°F	2026-09-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260921-TMAX-GE64
Opened Sep 17 · 15:00 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 64°F · Mon Sep 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗