KMSP / Mon Sep 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST42%Sep 17 · 02:57 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

83%

41%

35%

29%

Consensus

42%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 44.3¢Risks 44.30u

AIFSNO 55.7¢Risks 55.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +55.70u · AIFS −55.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-17T02:57:18+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-16T03:36:17+00:00	24.5%	81.3%	64.0%	16.8%	44.1%
2026-09-16T04:21:33+00:00	24.5%	81.3%	64.0%	16.8%	44.1%
2026-09-16T05:06:38+00:00	24.5%	81.3%	66.5%	16.8%	44.1%
2026-09-16T05:51:46+00:00	24.5%	81.3%	66.5%	16.8%	44.1%
2026-09-16T06:36:55+00:00	24.5%	81.3%	66.5%	16.8%	44.1%
2026-09-16T07:22:11+00:00	24.5%	81.3%	66.5%	16.8%	44.1%
2026-09-16T08:07:30+00:00	19.4%	81.3%	66.5%	23.7%	14.2%
2026-09-16T08:52:40+00:00	19.4%	81.3%	66.5%	23.7%	14.2%
2026-09-16T09:37:50+00:00	19.4%	81.3%	66.5%	23.7%	14.2%
2026-09-16T10:23:00+00:00	19.4%	81.3%	66.5%	23.7%	14.2%
2026-09-16T11:08:07+00:00	19.4%	82.6%	57.6%	23.7%	14.2%
2026-09-16T11:53:16+00:00	19.4%	82.6%	57.6%	23.7%	14.2%
2026-09-16T12:38:21+00:00	19.4%	82.6%	57.6%	23.7%	14.2%
2026-09-16T13:23:27+00:00	19.4%	82.6%	57.6%	23.7%	14.2%
2026-09-16T14:09:46+00:00	5.0%	82.6%	57.6%	23.6%	14.2%
2026-09-16T14:54:55+00:00	5.0%	82.6%	57.6%	23.6%	14.2%
2026-09-16T15:40:08+00:00	5.0%	81.8%	57.6%	23.6%	14.2%
2026-09-16T16:25:14+00:00	5.0%	81.8%	57.6%	28.7%	34.2%
2026-09-16T17:10:20+00:00	5.0%	81.8%	51.9%	28.7%	34.2%
2026-09-16T17:55:36+00:00	5.0%	81.8%	51.9%	28.7%	34.2%
2026-09-16T18:40:46+00:00	5.0%	81.8%	51.9%	28.7%	34.2%
2026-09-16T19:25:51+00:00	5.0%	81.8%	51.9%	28.7%	34.2%
2026-09-16T20:10:57+00:00	2.8%	81.8%	51.9%	33.5%	34.2%
2026-09-16T20:56:01+00:00	2.8%	81.8%	51.9%	33.5%	34.2%
2026-09-16T21:41:06+00:00	2.8%	81.8%	51.9%	33.5%	34.2%
2026-09-16T22:26:11+00:00	2.8%	81.8%	51.9%	33.5%	34.2%
2026-09-16T23:11:19+00:00	2.8%	83.4%	41.4%	29.2%	34.8%
2026-09-16T23:56:28+00:00	2.8%	83.4%	41.4%	29.2%	34.8%
2026-09-17T00:41:34+00:00	2.8%	83.4%	41.4%	29.2%	34.8%
2026-09-17T01:26:50+00:00	5.2%	83.4%	41.4%	29.2%	34.8%
2026-09-17T02:12:07+00:00	5.2%	83.4%	41.4%	29.2%	34.8%
2026-09-17T02:57:18+00:00	5.2%	83.4%	41.4%	29.2%	34.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	83%	70.7°F	3.3°F	2026-09-16 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	68.0°F	5.1°F	2026-09-16 14:00	Pending
National Blend	47%	67.0°F	6.6°F	2026-09-16 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	41%	66.6°F	4.2°F	2026-09-16 12:00	Pending
ICON	35%	65.2°F	5.9°F	2026-09-16 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	29%	64.3°F	5.8°F	2026-09-16 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	5%	59.4°F	5.0°F	2026-09-16 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260921-TMAX-GE68
Opened Sep 16 · 03:36 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 68°F · Mon Sep 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗