KMSP / Mon Sep 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST42%Sep 17 · 02:57 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

83%

41%

35%

29%

Consensus

42%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 44.3¢Risks 44.30u

AIFSNO 55.7¢Risks 55.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +55.70u · AIFS −55.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	4.3%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	39.0%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	83.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	52.7%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	35.4%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	47.9%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	82.1%	—	—	—	—	44.2%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	87.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	95.2%	—	—	—	—	62.5%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	92.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	53.2%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	39.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	38.6%	—	—	—	—	52.8%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	41.7%	—	6.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	55.7%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	20.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	29.3%	—	—	—	—	67.0%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	41.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	30.8%	—	—	—	—	62.5%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—	65.3%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	67.9%	—	6.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	68.2%	—	—	—	—	67.0%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	27.5%	—	10.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	8.2%	—	—	52.0%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	19.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	21.4%	—	—	36.9%	—	51.4%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	24.2%	—	54.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	8.2%	—	1.3%	76.8%	—	47.8%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	8.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	4.8%	16.9%	8.4%	63.5%	—	34.4%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	5.4%	—	0.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	3.8%	4.5%	0.4%	42.1%	—	31.6%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	3.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	16.8%	2.8%	55.8%	—	18.4%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	14.7%	2.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	2.9%	67.0%	8.0%	44.8%	—	19.0%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	8.8%	32.6%	0.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	2.9%	38.2%	20.3%	41.8%	—	18.4%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	3.4%	6.4%	2.3%	—	—	11.8%
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	28.7%	1.3%	24.0%	—	12.1%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	8.0%	9.6%	—	—	7.6%
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	1.4%	44.9%	46.9%	47.9%	—	7.1%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	42.6%	42.6%	—	—	4.7%
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	27.3%	31.1%	14.9%	11.4%	3.3%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	16.8%	5.4%	0.2%	—	3.1%
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	11.0%	16.0%	1.3%	2.7%	2.2%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	16.0%	0.5%	10.2%	—	1.3%
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	1.6%	0.4%	8.9%	—	1.1%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.1%	1.2%	—	0.5%
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	2.0%	0.0%	1.0%	0.9%	0.3%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.7%	0.0%	0.1%	—	0.1%
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.5%	0.1%	0.2%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	—	0.0%
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	1.0%	0.4%	2.0%	0.0%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	1.1%	1.1%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	83%	70.7°F	3.3°F	2026-09-16 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	68.0°F	5.1°F	2026-09-16 14:00	Pending
National Blend	47%	67.0°F	6.6°F	2026-09-16 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	41%	66.6°F	4.2°F	2026-09-16 12:00	Pending
ICON	35%	65.2°F	5.9°F	2026-09-16 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	29%	64.3°F	5.8°F	2026-09-16 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	5%	59.4°F	5.0°F	2026-09-16 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260921-TMAX-GE68
Opened Sep 16 · 03:36 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 68°F · Mon Sep 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗