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KMSP / Mon Sep 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 72°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST34%Sep 14 · 10:12 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
75%
ICON
37%
WN2
32%
HRES
17%
AIFS
6%
Consensus
34%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 40.6¢Risks 40.65u
VS
AIFSNO 59.4¢Risks 59.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +59.35u · AIFS −59.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 6.0% · 2026-09-14T07:56:54+00:00AIFS Single: 6.0% · 2026-09-14T08:42:09+00:00AIFS Single: 6.0% · 2026-09-14T09:27:14+00:00AIFS Single: 6.0% · 2026-09-14T10:12:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 75.3% · 2026-09-14T07:56:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 75.3% · 2026-09-14T08:42:09+00:00IFS Ensemble: 75.3% · 2026-09-14T09:27:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 75.3% · 2026-09-14T10:12:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 31.8% · 2026-09-14T07:56:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 31.8% · 2026-09-14T08:42:09+00:00WeatherNext 2: 31.8% · 2026-09-14T09:27:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 31.8% · 2026-09-14T10:12:19+00:00IFS HRES: 16.9% · 2026-09-14T07:56:54+00:00IFS HRES: 16.9% · 2026-09-14T08:42:09+00:00IFS HRES: 16.9% · 2026-09-14T09:27:14+00:00IFS HRES: 16.9% · 2026-09-14T10:12:19+00:00ICON: 36.8% · 2026-09-14T07:56:54+00:00ICON: 36.8% · 2026-09-14T08:42:09+00:00ICON: 36.8% · 2026-09-14T09:27:14+00:00ICON: 36.8% · 2026-09-14T10:12:19+00:0009-14 07:5609-14 09:2709-14 10:12
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-09-14T10:12:19+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-09-14T07:56:54+00:006.0%75.3%31.8%16.9%36.8%
2026-09-14T08:42:09+00:006.0%75.3%31.8%16.9%36.8%
2026-09-14T09:27:14+00:006.0%75.3%31.8%16.9%36.8%
2026-09-14T10:12:19+00:006.0%75.3%31.8%16.9%36.8%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble75%74.1°F3.8°F2026-09-13 00:00Pending
National Blend55%72.4°F7.7°F2026-09-14 00:00Pending
ICON37%68.2°F9.8°F2026-09-14 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 232%69.1°F5.1°F2026-09-13 18:00Pending
IFS HRES17%65.6°F6.2°F2026-09-14 00:00Pending
AIFS Single6%62.9°F5.5°F2026-09-14 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 72°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260921-TMAX-GE72
Opened Sep 14 · 07:56 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 72°F · Mon Sep 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗