KMSP / Mon Sep 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 72°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST34%Sep 14 · 10:12 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

75%

37%

32%

17%

Consensus

34%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 40.6¢Risks 40.65u

AIFSNO 59.4¢Risks 59.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +59.35u · AIFS −59.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	1.2%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	24.4%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	18.2%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	27.9%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	72.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	87.2%	—	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	81.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	32.5%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	21.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	20.0%	—	—	—	—	31.5%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	22.1%	—	2.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	11.9%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	8.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	12.9%	—	—	—	—	44.1%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	21.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	13.3%	—	—	—	—	38.6%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	8.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	—	—	—	40.7%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	43.0%	—	1.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	42.9%	—	—	—	—	41.6%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	2.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	1.9%	—	—	26.5%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	6.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	6.7%	—	—	14.9%	—	25.2%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	7.8%	—	27.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	0.1%	50.0%	—	21.5%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	1.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	4.2%	1.6%	33.7%	—	12.2%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	0.6%	0.0%	15.9%	—	10.0%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	3.6%	0.3%	24.5%	—	4.1%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	2.8%	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	33.0%	1.1%	15.6%	—	3.9%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	8.8%	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	11.0%	3.9%	12.9%	—	3.4%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	0.7%	0.2%	—	—	1.6%
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	6.2%	0.1%	4.6%	—	1.6%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.8%	1.1%	—	—	0.8%
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	12.3%	13.4%	13.9%	—	0.6%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	10.6%	10.6%	—	—	0.3%
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	4.5%	5.6%	1.6%	1.1%	0.2%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.8%	0.3%	0.0%	—	0.1%
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.8%	1.5%	0.0%	0.1%	0.1%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.4%	0.0%	0.7%	—	0.0%
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.5%	—	0.0%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	75%	74.1°F	3.8°F	2026-09-13 00:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	72.4°F	7.7°F	2026-09-14 00:00	Pending
ICON	37%	68.2°F	9.8°F	2026-09-14 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	32%	69.1°F	5.1°F	2026-09-13 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	17%	65.6°F	6.2°F	2026-09-14 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	6%	62.9°F	5.5°F	2026-09-14 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 72°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260921-TMAX-GE72
Opened Sep 14 · 07:56 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 72°F · Mon Sep 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗