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KMSP / Mon Sep 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≤ 56°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Sep 21 · 10:06 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
69%
HRES
19%
AIFS
3%
WN2
<1%
EPS
<1%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 34.5¢Risks 34.50u
VS
EPSNO 65.5¢Risks 65.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +65.50u · EPS −65.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 7.8% · 2026-09-21T04:51:11+00:00AIFS Single: 7.8% · 2026-09-21T05:36:18+00:00AIFS Single: 7.8% · 2026-09-21T06:21:23+00:00AIFS Single: 7.8% · 2026-09-21T07:06:31+00:00AIFS Single: 2.7% · 2026-09-21T07:51:36+00:00AIFS Single: 2.7% · 2026-09-21T08:36:41+00:00AIFS Single: 2.7% · 2026-09-21T09:21:46+00:00AIFS Single: 2.7% · 2026-09-21T10:06:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.0% · 2026-09-21T04:51:11+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.0% · 2026-09-21T05:36:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.0% · 2026-09-21T06:21:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.0% · 2026-09-21T07:06:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.0% · 2026-09-21T07:51:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.0% · 2026-09-21T08:36:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.0% · 2026-09-21T09:21:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.0% · 2026-09-21T10:06:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.4% · 2026-09-21T04:51:11+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.4% · 2026-09-21T05:36:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.4% · 2026-09-21T06:21:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.4% · 2026-09-21T07:06:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.4% · 2026-09-21T07:51:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.4% · 2026-09-21T08:36:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.4% · 2026-09-21T09:21:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.4% · 2026-09-21T10:06:50+00:00IFS HRES: 18.9% · 2026-09-21T04:51:11+00:00IFS HRES: 18.9% · 2026-09-21T05:36:18+00:00IFS HRES: 18.9% · 2026-09-21T06:21:23+00:00IFS HRES: 18.9% · 2026-09-21T07:06:31+00:00IFS HRES: 18.9% · 2026-09-21T07:51:36+00:00IFS HRES: 18.9% · 2026-09-21T08:36:41+00:00IFS HRES: 18.9% · 2026-09-21T09:21:46+00:00IFS HRES: 18.9% · 2026-09-21T10:06:50+00:00ICON: 69.0% · 2026-09-21T04:51:11+00:00ICON: 69.0% · 2026-09-21T05:36:18+00:00ICON: 69.0% · 2026-09-21T06:21:23+00:00ICON: 69.0% · 2026-09-21T07:06:31+00:00ICON: 69.0% · 2026-09-21T07:51:36+00:00ICON: 69.0% · 2026-09-21T08:36:41+00:00ICON: 69.0% · 2026-09-21T09:21:46+00:00ICON: 69.0% · 2026-09-21T10:06:50+00:0009-21 04:5109-21 07:5109-21 10:06
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-09-21T10:06:50+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-09-21T04:51:11+00:007.8%0.0%0.4%18.9%69.0%
2026-09-21T05:36:18+00:007.8%0.0%0.4%18.9%69.0%
2026-09-21T06:21:23+00:007.8%0.0%0.4%18.9%69.0%
2026-09-21T07:06:31+00:007.8%0.0%0.4%18.9%69.0%
2026-09-21T07:51:36+00:002.7%0.0%0.4%18.9%69.0%
2026-09-21T08:36:41+00:002.7%0.0%0.4%18.9%69.0%
2026-09-21T09:21:46+00:002.7%0.0%0.4%18.9%69.0%
2026-09-21T10:06:50+00:002.7%0.0%0.4%18.9%69.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
ICON69%54.8°F3.4°F2026-09-21 00:00Pending
IFS HRES19%59.8°F3.8°F2026-09-20 12:00Pending
NWS forecast13%59.0°F2.2°F2026-09-21 02:00Pending
National Blend11%62.0°F4.4°F2026-09-21 00:00Pending
AIFS Single3%62.4°F3.0°F2026-09-21 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 2<1%66.8°F3.9°F2026-09-17 12:00Pending
IFS Ensemble<1%68.8°F3.0°F2026-09-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 56°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260921-TMAX-LE56
Opened Sep 21 · 04:51 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 56°F · Mon Sep 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗