KMSP / Mon Sep 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≤ 56°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Sep 21 · 10:06 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

69%

19%

<1%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 34.5¢Risks 34.50u

EPSNO 65.5¢Risks 65.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +65.50u · EPS −65.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	89.0%	—	—	—	—	60.0%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	11.8%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—	6.3%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	9.6%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	13.7%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	7.9%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	9.3%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	3.7%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—	6.0%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	5.6%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	47.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	17.0%	—	—	—	—	4.4%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	21.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	14.1%	—	—	—	—	2.0%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	7.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	12.1%	—	—	—	—	2.3%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	17.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	1.7%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	40.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	1.3%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	10.9%	—	29.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	31.8%	—	—	2.8%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	29.0%	—	15.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	5.4%	—	2.4%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	10.1%	—	1.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	26.6%	—	58.7%	0.3%	—	2.5%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	20.0%	—	24.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	12.5%	23.4%	0.7%	—	4.4%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	63.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	33.7%	30.9%	66.3%	2.3%	—	4.3%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	31.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	72.8%	9.0%	34.5%	0.7%	—	8.0%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	63.4%	9.5%	34.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	29.9%	0.2%	15.6%	1.1%	—	6.2%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	13.0%	2.1%	54.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	25.9%	1.2%	4.3%	1.0%	—	5.0%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	21.7%	13.7%	26.9%	—	—	7.7%
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	29.6%	1.7%	32.1%	2.4%	—	6.5%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	54.0%	8.8%	7.3%	—	—	9.2%
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	25.9%	0.3%	0.3%	0.3%	—	8.6%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	30.7%	0.3%	0.3%	—	—	10.6%
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	46.7%	0.8%	0.6%	2.4%	3.5%	11.9%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	42.2%	1.6%	6.7%	43.3%	—	10.7%
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	48.8%	2.4%	1.3%	16.0%	10.0%	11.6%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	42.8%	1.0%	23.4%	2.0%	—	13.9%
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	43.8%	10.0%	22.7%	1.8%	—	12.4%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	43.6%	29.1%	36.1%	9.8%	—	15.8%
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	33.1%	5.0%	54.0%	8.4%	8.9%	17.3%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	27.6%	8.6%	61.0%	27.6%	—	23.2%
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	26.8%	41.4%	54.3%	7.3%	18.2%	12.2%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	35.2%	59.0%	35.2%	11.2%	—	20.2%
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	45.3%	68.3%	2.2%	4.1%	1.1%	33.1%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	29.5%	33.9%	1.1%	1.1%	—	14.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	69%	54.8°F	3.4°F	2026-09-21 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	19%	59.8°F	3.8°F	2026-09-20 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	13%	59.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-21 02:00	Pending
National Blend	11%	62.0°F	4.4°F	2026-09-21 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	3%	62.4°F	3.0°F	2026-09-21 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	<1%	66.8°F	3.9°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	68.8°F	3.0°F	2026-09-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 56°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260921-TMAX-LE56
Opened Sep 21 · 04:51 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 56°F · Mon Sep 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗