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KMSP / Wed Sep 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 74°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST19%Sep 17 · 02:57 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
56%
EPS
22%
WN2
12%
AIFS
10%
HRES
10%
Consensus
19%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 33.0¢Risks 33.05u
VS
HRESNO 67.0¢Risks 66.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +66.95u · HRES −66.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 11.3% · 2026-09-16T23:11:19+00:00AIFS Single: 11.3% · 2026-09-16T23:56:28+00:00AIFS Single: 11.3% · 2026-09-17T00:41:34+00:00AIFS Single: 10.0% · 2026-09-17T01:26:50+00:00AIFS Single: 10.0% · 2026-09-17T02:12:07+00:00AIFS Single: 10.0% · 2026-09-17T02:57:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 22.3% · 2026-09-16T23:11:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 22.3% · 2026-09-16T23:56:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 22.3% · 2026-09-17T00:41:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 22.3% · 2026-09-17T01:26:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 22.3% · 2026-09-17T02:12:07+00:00IFS Ensemble: 22.3% · 2026-09-17T02:57:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 12.4% · 2026-09-16T23:11:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 12.4% · 2026-09-16T23:56:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 12.4% · 2026-09-17T00:41:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 12.4% · 2026-09-17T01:26:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 12.4% · 2026-09-17T02:12:07+00:00WeatherNext 2: 12.4% · 2026-09-17T02:57:18+00:00IFS HRES: 9.6% · 2026-09-16T23:11:19+00:00IFS HRES: 9.6% · 2026-09-16T23:56:28+00:00IFS HRES: 9.6% · 2026-09-17T00:41:34+00:00IFS HRES: 9.6% · 2026-09-17T01:26:50+00:00IFS HRES: 9.6% · 2026-09-17T02:12:07+00:00IFS HRES: 9.6% · 2026-09-17T02:57:18+00:00ICON: 56.5% · 2026-09-16T23:11:19+00:00ICON: 56.5% · 2026-09-16T23:56:28+00:00ICON: 56.5% · 2026-09-17T00:41:34+00:00ICON: 56.5% · 2026-09-17T01:26:50+00:00ICON: 56.5% · 2026-09-17T02:12:07+00:00ICON: 56.5% · 2026-09-17T02:57:18+00:0009-16 23:1109-17 01:2609-17 02:57
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-09-17T02:57:18+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-09-16T23:11:19+00:0011.3%22.3%12.4%9.6%56.5%
2026-09-16T23:56:28+00:0011.3%22.3%12.4%9.6%56.5%
2026-09-17T00:41:34+00:0011.3%22.3%12.4%9.6%56.5%
2026-09-17T01:26:50+00:0010.0%22.3%12.4%9.6%56.5%
2026-09-17T02:12:07+00:0010.0%22.3%12.4%9.6%56.5%
2026-09-17T02:57:18+00:0010.0%22.3%12.4%9.6%56.5%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
ICON56%75.1°F9.8°F2026-09-16 12:00Pending
National Blend54%74.0°F5.4°F2026-09-16 06:00Pending
IFS Ensemble22%70.6°F3.8°F2026-09-16 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 212%68.0°F4.8°F2026-09-16 12:00Pending
AIFS Single10%66.4°F5.5°F2026-09-16 18:00Pending
IFS HRES10%65.4°F6.2°F2026-09-16 12:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 74°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260923-TMAX-GE74
Opened Sep 16 · 23:11 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 74°F · Wed Sep 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗