KMSP / Wed Sep 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 74°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST19%Sep 17 · 02:57 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

56%

22%

12%

10%

10%

Consensus

19%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 33.0¢Risks 33.05u

HRESNO 67.0¢Risks 66.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +66.95u · HRES −66.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	0.8%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	24.0%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	40.5%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	77.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	39.5%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	39.5%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	78.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	19.6%	—	—	—	—	43.1%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	43.4%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	33.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	37.2%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	23.1%	—	0.4%	—	—	24.9%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	9.7%	—	8.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	21.4%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	11.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	9.0%	—	4.2%	—	—	25.4%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	9.7%	—	9.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	24.6%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	7.2%	—	29.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	50.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	3.1%	33.0%	70.2%	1.6%	—	8.5%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	81.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	4.9%	6.6%	24.3%	17.0%	—	5.7%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	26.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	1.9%	8.1%	0.6%	15.5%	—	2.5%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	8.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	2.2%	3.8%	20.1%	10.0%	—	2.0%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	24.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	1.6%	2.3%	25.8%	4.9%	—	1.8%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	0.6%	23.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	1.0%	0.8%	27.7%	0.9%	—	1.3%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	0.5%	22.2%	—	—	0.9%
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	0.5%	16.6%	0.6%	—	1.1%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	0.2%	13.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	0.1%	14.7%	0.8%	—	1.0%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	0.2%	14.6%	—	—	0.8%
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	0.2%	11.3%	0.9%	—	0.6%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	0.1%	12.7%	—	—	0.6%
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.1%	9.9%	0.4%	0.0%	0.4%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.1%	7.5%	0.0%	—	0.3%
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.1%	8.5%	0.5%	—	0.1%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.1%	7.0%	1.3%	—	0.1%
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.2%	6.3%	0.7%	0.7%	0.2%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	8.2%	0.2%	—	0.1%
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.1%	7.9%	0.4%	0.4%	0.1%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.4%	4.3%	0.7%	—	0.1%
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.4%	5.1%	0.8%	0.5%	0.1%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	5.1%	0.5%	—	0.1%
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.1%	4.8%	0.2%	0.4%	0.1%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.8%	2.6%	0.6%	—	0.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	56%	75.1°F	9.8°F	2026-09-16 12:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	74.0°F	5.4°F	2026-09-16 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	22%	70.6°F	3.8°F	2026-09-16 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	12%	68.0°F	4.8°F	2026-09-16 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	10%	66.4°F	5.5°F	2026-09-16 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	10%	65.4°F	6.2°F	2026-09-16 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 74°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260923-TMAX-GE74
Opened Sep 16 · 23:11 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 74°F · Wed Sep 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗