KMSP / Thu Sep 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST38%Sep 20 · 14:33 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

47%

46%

29%

28%

25%

Consensus

38%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 35.9¢Risks 35.90u

AIFSNO 64.1¢Risks 64.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +64.10u · AIFS −64.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-20T14:33:35+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-18T15:07:11+00:00	21.5%	54.1%	45.8%	32.0%	54.1%
2026-09-18T15:52:25+00:00	21.5%	54.1%	45.8%	32.0%	54.1%
2026-09-18T16:37:31+00:00	21.5%	54.1%	45.8%	32.0%	58.1%
2026-09-18T17:22:37+00:00	21.5%	54.1%	45.8%	32.0%	58.1%
2026-09-18T18:07:41+00:00	21.5%	54.1%	45.8%	32.0%	58.1%
2026-09-18T18:52:51+00:00	21.5%	54.1%	45.8%	32.0%	58.1%
2026-09-18T19:37:55+00:00	39.6%	54.1%	45.8%	32.0%	58.1%
2026-09-18T20:23:00+00:00	39.6%	54.1%	45.8%	32.0%	58.1%
2026-09-18T21:08:05+00:00	39.6%	54.1%	45.8%	32.0%	58.1%
2026-09-18T21:53:09+00:00	39.6%	54.1%	45.8%	32.0%	58.1%
2026-09-18T22:38:16+00:00	39.6%	54.1%	45.8%	36.4%	58.1%
2026-09-18T23:23:21+00:00	39.6%	52.7%	45.8%	36.4%	58.1%
2026-09-19T00:08:25+00:00	39.6%	52.7%	45.8%	36.4%	58.1%
2026-09-19T00:53:33+00:00	39.6%	52.7%	45.8%	36.4%	58.1%
2026-09-19T01:38:38+00:00	50.0%	52.7%	45.8%	36.4%	58.1%
2026-09-19T02:23:43+00:00	50.0%	52.7%	45.8%	36.4%	58.1%
2026-09-20T03:14:49+00:00	22.7%	50.0%	45.8%	35.3%	35.4%
2026-09-20T04:00:04+00:00	22.7%	50.0%	45.8%	35.3%	35.4%
2026-09-20T04:45:09+00:00	22.7%	50.0%	45.8%	35.3%	29.2%
2026-09-20T05:30:15+00:00	22.7%	50.0%	45.8%	35.3%	29.2%
2026-09-20T06:15:20+00:00	22.7%	50.0%	45.8%	35.3%	29.2%
2026-09-20T07:00:27+00:00	22.7%	50.0%	45.8%	35.3%	29.2%
2026-09-20T07:45:47+00:00	22.7%	50.0%	45.8%	27.7%	29.2%
2026-09-20T08:31:13+00:00	22.7%	50.0%	45.8%	27.7%	29.2%
2026-09-20T09:16:18+00:00	22.7%	50.0%	45.8%	27.7%	29.2%
2026-09-20T10:01:22+00:00	22.7%	50.0%	45.8%	27.7%	29.2%
2026-09-20T10:46:27+00:00	22.7%	50.0%	45.8%	27.7%	29.2%
2026-09-20T11:31:35+00:00	22.7%	47.2%	45.8%	27.7%	29.2%
2026-09-20T12:16:52+00:00	22.7%	47.2%	45.8%	27.7%	29.2%
2026-09-20T13:01:57+00:00	22.7%	47.2%	45.8%	27.7%	29.2%
2026-09-20T13:47:04+00:00	24.7%	47.2%	45.8%	27.7%	29.2%
2026-09-20T14:33:35+00:00	24.6%	47.2%	45.9%	27.6%	29.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	55%	69.0°F	4.5°F	2026-09-20 02:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	47%	68.3°F	2.8°F	2026-09-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	46%	68.0°F	4.8°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
National Blend	45%	68.0°F	4.1°F	2026-09-20 06:00	Pending
ICON	29%	65.9°F	4.8°F	2026-09-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	28%	65.5°F	5.0°F	2026-09-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	25%	65.3°F	4.7°F	2026-09-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260924-TMAX-GE69
Opened Sep 18 · 15:07 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 69°F · Thu Sep 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗