KMSP / Thu Sep 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST38%Sep 20 · 14:33 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

47%

46%

29%

28%

25%

Consensus

38%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 35.9¢Risks 35.90u

AIFSNO 64.1¢Risks 64.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +64.10u · AIFS −64.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	5.8%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	72.1%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	89.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	72.6%	—	—	—	—	60.0%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	86.6%	—	—	—	—	68.4%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	89.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	—	—	—	74.3%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	92.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	76.4%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	96.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	68.4%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	86.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	—	—	—	73.9%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	79.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	92.2%	—	—	—	—	66.6%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	92.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	64.0%	—	—	—	—	64.0%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	40.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	50.6%	—	—	—	—	62.8%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	46.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	63.8%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	—	20.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	64.8%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	77.1%	—	71.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	13.5%	—	—	—	—	60.6%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	26.6%	—	100.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	43.5%	—	—	49.4%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	28.6%	—	28.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	3.4%	96.8%	—	—	45.3%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	7.6%	—	91.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	8.7%	86.3%	82.0%	3.1%	—	34.9%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	55.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	5.7%	32.3%	82.0%	75.1%	—	31.7%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	47.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	14.6%	36.5%	77.2%	59.8%	—	26.4%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	21.7%	—	85.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	7.2%	17.4%	56.4%	32.3%	—	24.8%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	34.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	4.7%	17.3%	49.2%	8.3%	—	21.3%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	3.9%	5.1%	70.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	4.1%	19.0%	60.4%	15.6%	—	20.2%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	4.1%	10.0%	62.4%	—	—	18.4%
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	4.3%	3.9%	30.6%	11.5%	—	11.9%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	1.6%	9.6%	13.7%	—	—	0.1%
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	1.8%	4.2%	0.6%	10.2%	—	16.5%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	1.4%	7.0%	0.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	7.4%	4.0%	0.4%	17.0%	—	11.3%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	6.8%	47.9%	—	—	16.3%
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	2.8%	8.1%	4.5%	5.0%	65.9%	17.6%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	2.1%	5.7%	31.5%	0.1%	—	19.0%
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	4.2%	7.2%	1.5%	3.1%	45.4%	7.6%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	1.9%	4.5%	0.1%	39.3%	—	11.4%
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	8.5%	6.3%	24.6%	24.6%	3.3%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	15.0%	1.3%	10.9%	—	1.2%
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	7.0%	6.1%	7.9%	35.6%	0.8%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	8.6%	39.0%	14.7%	—	2.0%
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	16.3%	1.0%	13.0%	29.3%	5.5%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	1.7%	11.2%	0.5%	12.8%	—	17.2%
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	4.4%	10.2%	3.4%	26.3%	50.0%	8.9%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	4.1%	18.1%	19.2%	—	17.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	55%	69.0°F	4.5°F	2026-09-20 02:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	47%	68.3°F	2.8°F	2026-09-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	46%	68.0°F	4.8°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
National Blend	45%	68.0°F	4.1°F	2026-09-20 06:00	Pending
ICON	29%	65.9°F	4.8°F	2026-09-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	28%	65.5°F	5.0°F	2026-09-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	25%	65.3°F	4.7°F	2026-09-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260924-TMAX-GE69
Opened Sep 18 · 15:07 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 69°F · Thu Sep 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗