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KMSP / Thu Sep 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 74°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST19%Sep 18 · 02:17 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
71%
AIFS
19%
HRES
14%
WN2
12%
EPS
12%
Consensus
19%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 41.4¢Risks 41.45u
VS
EPSNO 58.6¢Risks 58.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +58.55u · EPS −58.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 27.6% · 2026-09-17T11:14:05+00:00AIFS Single: 27.6% · 2026-09-17T11:59:13+00:00AIFS Single: 27.6% · 2026-09-17T12:44:17+00:00AIFS Single: 27.6% · 2026-09-17T13:29:23+00:00AIFS Single: 5.4% · 2026-09-17T14:15:36+00:00AIFS Single: 5.4% · 2026-09-17T15:00:50+00:00AIFS Single: 5.4% · 2026-09-17T15:46:03+00:00AIFS Single: 5.4% · 2026-09-17T16:31:12+00:00AIFS Single: 5.4% · 2026-09-17T17:16:20+00:00AIFS Single: 5.4% · 2026-09-17T18:01:25+00:00AIFS Single: 5.4% · 2026-09-17T18:46:34+00:00AIFS Single: 6.5% · 2026-09-17T19:31:39+00:00AIFS Single: 6.5% · 2026-09-17T20:16:44+00:00AIFS Single: 6.5% · 2026-09-17T21:01:49+00:00AIFS Single: 6.5% · 2026-09-17T21:46:54+00:00AIFS Single: 6.5% · 2026-09-17T22:31:59+00:00AIFS Single: 6.5% · 2026-09-17T23:17:05+00:00AIFS Single: 6.5% · 2026-09-18T00:02:10+00:00AIFS Single: 6.5% · 2026-09-18T00:47:17+00:00AIFS Single: 18.8% · 2026-09-18T01:32:23+00:00AIFS Single: 18.8% · 2026-09-18T02:17:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 10.4% · 2026-09-17T11:14:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 10.4% · 2026-09-17T11:59:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 10.4% · 2026-09-17T12:44:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 10.4% · 2026-09-17T13:29:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 10.4% · 2026-09-17T14:15:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 10.4% · 2026-09-17T15:00:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 11.0% · 2026-09-17T15:46:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 11.0% · 2026-09-17T16:31:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 11.0% · 2026-09-17T17:16:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 11.0% · 2026-09-17T18:01:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 11.0% · 2026-09-17T18:46:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 11.0% · 2026-09-17T19:31:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 11.0% · 2026-09-17T20:16:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 11.0% · 2026-09-17T21:01:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 11.0% · 2026-09-17T21:46:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 11.0% · 2026-09-17T22:31:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 12.3% · 2026-09-17T23:17:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 12.3% · 2026-09-18T00:02:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 12.3% · 2026-09-18T00:47:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 12.3% · 2026-09-18T01:32:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 12.3% · 2026-09-18T02:17:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 30.7% · 2026-09-17T11:14:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 30.7% · 2026-09-17T11:59:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 30.7% · 2026-09-17T12:44:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 30.7% · 2026-09-17T13:29:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 30.7% · 2026-09-17T14:15:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 30.7% · 2026-09-17T15:00:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 30.7% · 2026-09-17T15:46:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 30.7% · 2026-09-17T16:31:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 16.2% · 2026-09-17T17:16:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 16.2% · 2026-09-17T18:01:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 16.2% · 2026-09-17T18:46:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 16.2% · 2026-09-17T19:31:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 16.2% · 2026-09-17T20:16:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 16.2% · 2026-09-17T21:01:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 16.2% · 2026-09-17T21:46:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 16.2% · 2026-09-17T22:31:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 12.4% · 2026-09-17T23:17:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 12.4% · 2026-09-18T00:02:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 12.4% · 2026-09-18T00:47:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 12.4% · 2026-09-18T01:32:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 12.4% · 2026-09-18T02:17:28+00:00IFS HRES: 27.0% · 2026-09-17T11:14:05+00:00IFS HRES: 27.0% · 2026-09-17T11:59:13+00:00IFS HRES: 27.0% · 2026-09-17T12:44:17+00:00IFS HRES: 27.0% · 2026-09-17T13:29:23+00:00IFS HRES: 27.0% · 2026-09-17T14:15:36+00:00IFS HRES: 27.0% · 2026-09-17T15:00:50+00:00IFS HRES: 27.0% · 2026-09-17T15:46:03+00:00IFS HRES: 27.0% · 2026-09-17T16:31:12+00:00IFS HRES: 27.0% · 2026-09-17T17:16:20+00:00IFS HRES: 27.0% · 2026-09-17T18:01:25+00:00IFS HRES: 27.0% · 2026-09-17T18:46:34+00:00IFS HRES: 27.0% · 2026-09-17T19:31:39+00:00IFS HRES: 27.0% · 2026-09-17T20:16:44+00:00IFS HRES: 27.0% · 2026-09-17T21:01:49+00:00IFS HRES: 27.0% · 2026-09-17T21:46:54+00:00IFS HRES: 14.4% · 2026-09-17T22:31:59+00:00IFS HRES: 14.4% · 2026-09-17T23:17:05+00:00IFS HRES: 14.4% · 2026-09-18T00:02:10+00:00IFS HRES: 14.4% · 2026-09-18T00:47:17+00:00IFS HRES: 14.4% · 2026-09-18T01:32:23+00:00IFS HRES: 14.4% · 2026-09-18T02:17:28+00:00ICON: 11.6% · 2026-09-17T11:14:05+00:00ICON: 11.6% · 2026-09-17T11:59:13+00:00ICON: 11.6% · 2026-09-17T12:44:17+00:00ICON: 11.6% · 2026-09-17T13:29:23+00:00ICON: 11.6% · 2026-09-17T14:15:36+00:00ICON: 11.6% · 2026-09-17T15:00:50+00:00ICON: 11.6% · 2026-09-17T15:46:03+00:00ICON: 70.6% · 2026-09-17T16:31:12+00:00ICON: 70.6% · 2026-09-17T17:16:20+00:00ICON: 70.6% · 2026-09-17T18:01:25+00:00ICON: 70.6% · 2026-09-17T18:46:34+00:00ICON: 70.6% · 2026-09-17T19:31:39+00:00ICON: 70.6% · 2026-09-17T20:16:44+00:00ICON: 70.6% · 2026-09-17T21:01:49+00:00ICON: 70.6% · 2026-09-17T21:46:54+00:00ICON: 70.6% · 2026-09-17T22:31:59+00:00ICON: 70.6% · 2026-09-17T23:17:05+00:00ICON: 70.6% · 2026-09-18T00:02:10+00:00ICON: 70.6% · 2026-09-18T00:47:17+00:00ICON: 70.6% · 2026-09-18T01:32:23+00:00ICON: 70.6% · 2026-09-18T02:17:28+00:0009-17 11:1409-17 18:4609-18 02:17
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-09-18T02:17:28+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-09-17T11:14:05+00:0027.6%10.4%30.7%27.0%11.6%
2026-09-17T11:59:13+00:0027.6%10.4%30.7%27.0%11.6%
2026-09-17T12:44:17+00:0027.6%10.4%30.7%27.0%11.6%
2026-09-17T13:29:23+00:0027.6%10.4%30.7%27.0%11.6%
2026-09-17T14:15:36+00:005.4%10.4%30.7%27.0%11.6%
2026-09-17T15:00:50+00:005.4%10.4%30.7%27.0%11.6%
2026-09-17T15:46:03+00:005.4%11.0%30.7%27.0%11.6%
2026-09-17T16:31:12+00:005.4%11.0%30.7%27.0%70.6%
2026-09-17T17:16:20+00:005.4%11.0%16.2%27.0%70.6%
2026-09-17T18:01:25+00:005.4%11.0%16.2%27.0%70.6%
2026-09-17T18:46:34+00:005.4%11.0%16.2%27.0%70.6%
2026-09-17T19:31:39+00:006.5%11.0%16.2%27.0%70.6%
2026-09-17T20:16:44+00:006.5%11.0%16.2%27.0%70.6%
2026-09-17T21:01:49+00:006.5%11.0%16.2%27.0%70.6%
2026-09-17T21:46:54+00:006.5%11.0%16.2%27.0%70.6%
2026-09-17T22:31:59+00:006.5%11.0%16.2%14.4%70.6%
2026-09-17T23:17:05+00:006.5%12.3%12.4%14.4%70.6%
2026-09-18T00:02:10+00:006.5%12.3%12.4%14.4%70.6%
2026-09-18T00:47:17+00:006.5%12.3%12.4%14.4%70.6%
2026-09-18T01:32:23+00:0018.8%12.3%12.4%14.4%70.6%
2026-09-18T02:17:28+00:0018.8%12.3%12.4%14.4%70.6%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
ICON71%78.8°F9.8°F2026-09-17 12:00Pending
National Blend54%74.0°F5.4°F2026-09-17 06:00Pending
AIFS Single19%68.6°F5.5°F2026-09-17 18:00Pending
IFS HRES14%66.9°F6.2°F2026-09-17 12:00Pending
WeatherNext 212%68.0°F4.8°F2026-09-17 12:00Pending
IFS Ensemble12%69.9°F3.1°F2026-09-17 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 74°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260924-TMAX-GE74
Opened Sep 17 · 11:14 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 74°F · Thu Sep 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗