KMSP / Thu Sep 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 74°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST19%Sep 18 · 02:17 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

71%

19%

14%

12%

12%

Consensus

19%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 41.4¢Risks 41.45u

EPSNO 58.6¢Risks 58.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +58.55u · EPS −58.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.2%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	46.8%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	42.6%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	78.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	52.1%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	87.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	42.6%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	77.3%	—	—	—	—	40.5%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	77.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	37.0%	—	—	—	—	37.0%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	17.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	24.3%	—	—	—	—	35.0%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	20.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	—	—	—	35.1%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	16.6%	—	5.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	16.1%	—	—	—	—	35.2%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	48.8%	—	42.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	30.2%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	99.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	16.4%	—	—	20.2%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	7.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	9.9%	0.4%	84.1%	—	—	16.7%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	69.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	58.4%	51.4%	0.3%	—	10.2%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	22.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	8.4%	50.0%	40.6%	—	8.2%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	15.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	2.2%	9.7%	41.7%	23.9%	—	5.6%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	52.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	2.6%	20.1%	7.2%	—	4.7%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	7.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	2.3%	14.3%	0.8%	—	3.3%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.3%	29.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	2.4%	20.2%	1.7%	—	2.7%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.8%	20.9%	—	—	2.1%
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.2%	4.8%	0.9%	—	1.0%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.6%	1.1%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%	0.6%	—	1.4%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.3%	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%	1.2%	—	0.6%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.2%	8.3%	—	—	1.0%
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.3%	0.1%	0.1%	16.9%	1.1%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	2.9%	0.0%	—	1.1%
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	5.7%	0.2%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	3.7%	—	0.3%
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.2%	0.1%	1.2%	1.2%	0.0%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.4%	0.0%	0.2%	—	0.0%
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	2.0%	0.0%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	2.1%	0.3%	—	0.0%
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.3%	0.0%	0.2%	0.9%	0.0%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%	—	0.2%
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.4%	2.4%	0.0%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.2%	—	0.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	71%	78.8°F	9.8°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	74.0°F	5.4°F	2026-09-17 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	19%	68.6°F	5.5°F	2026-09-17 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	14%	66.9°F	6.2°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	12%	68.0°F	4.8°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	12%	69.9°F	3.1°F	2026-09-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 74°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260924-TMAX-GE74
Opened Sep 17 · 11:14 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 74°F · Thu Sep 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗