KMSP / Thu Sep 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST24%Sep 17 · 10:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

27%

22%

22%

18%

10%

Consensus

24%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 18.4¢Risks 9.22u

ICONNO 81.5¢Risks 40.77u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +40.77u · ICON −40.77u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.9%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	37.5%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	44.2%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	46.8%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	84.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	37.5%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	73.1%	—	—	—	—	35.4%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	73.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	31.9%	—	—	—	—	31.9%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	29.9%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	16.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	14.8%	—	—	—	—	29.8%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	4.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	12.7%	—	—	—	—	29.7%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	36.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	—	—	—	24.9%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	99.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	12.7%	—	—	16.0%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	5.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	7.2%	0.2%	79.7%	—	—	12.8%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	62.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	51.4%	44.4%	0.2%	—	7.4%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	17.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	5.9%	42.7%	33.7%	—	5.7%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	11.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	1.4%	6.8%	34.4%	18.4%	—	3.8%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	44.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	1.6%	14.9%	4.9%	—	3.0%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	5.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	1.4%	10.1%	0.4%	—	2.0%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.2%	22.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	1.4%	14.6%	1.0%	—	1.6%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.4%	15.0%	—	—	1.2%
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.1%	2.9%	0.5%	—	0.5%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.3%	0.6%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.3%	—	0.7%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.6%	—	0.3%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	5.0%	—	—	0.5%
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%	10.9%	0.5%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	1.5%	0.0%	—	0.5%
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	3.1%	0.1%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	1.9%	—	0.1%
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.5%	0.5%	0.0%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%	—	0.0%
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.9%	0.0%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.9%	0.1%	—	0.0%
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%	0.3%	0.0%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.1%
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.9%	0.0%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	55%	75.0°F	4.3°F	2026-09-17 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	27%	72.1°F	4.0°F	2026-09-16 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	22%	69.7°F	6.2°F	2026-09-17 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	22%	70.2°F	5.5°F	2026-09-17 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	18%	69.8°F	5.1°F	2026-09-16 18:00	Pending
ICON	10%	61.8°F	9.8°F	2026-09-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260924-TMAX-GE75
Opened Sep 17 · 10:28 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 75°F · Thu Sep 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗