WEATHER PROPSBOARDMATCHUPSMODELSSTATIONSREPLAYTHE LEAGUE
← All matchups
KMSP / Sat Sep 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 60°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST96%Sep 26 · 06:57 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
>99%
WN2
>99%
AIFS
94%
HRES
86%
ICON
42%
Consensus
96%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 71.0¢Risks 70.95u
VS
ICONNO 29.0¢Risks 29.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +29.05u · ICON −29.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 94.3% · 2026-09-26T03:11:44+00:00AIFS Single: 94.3% · 2026-09-26T03:56:57+00:00AIFS Single: 94.3% · 2026-09-26T04:42:08+00:00AIFS Single: 94.3% · 2026-09-26T05:27:19+00:00AIFS Single: 94.3% · 2026-09-26T06:12:26+00:00AIFS Single: 94.3% · 2026-09-26T06:57:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-09-26T03:11:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-09-26T03:56:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-09-26T04:42:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-09-26T05:27:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-09-26T06:12:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-09-26T06:57:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.9% · 2026-09-26T03:11:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.9% · 2026-09-26T03:56:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.9% · 2026-09-26T04:42:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.9% · 2026-09-26T05:27:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.9% · 2026-09-26T06:12:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.9% · 2026-09-26T06:57:31+00:00IFS HRES: 85.7% · 2026-09-26T03:11:44+00:00IFS HRES: 85.7% · 2026-09-26T03:56:57+00:00IFS HRES: 85.7% · 2026-09-26T04:42:08+00:00IFS HRES: 85.7% · 2026-09-26T05:27:19+00:00IFS HRES: 85.7% · 2026-09-26T06:12:26+00:00IFS HRES: 85.7% · 2026-09-26T06:57:31+00:00ICON: 41.0% · 2026-09-26T03:11:44+00:00ICON: 41.0% · 2026-09-26T03:56:57+00:00ICON: 41.9% · 2026-09-26T04:42:08+00:00ICON: 41.9% · 2026-09-26T05:27:19+00:00ICON: 41.9% · 2026-09-26T06:12:26+00:00ICON: 41.9% · 2026-09-26T06:57:31+00:0009-26 03:1109-26 05:2709-26 06:57
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-09-26T06:57:31+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-09-26T03:11:44+00:0094.3%100.0%99.9%85.7%41.0%
2026-09-26T03:56:57+00:0094.3%100.0%99.9%85.7%41.0%
2026-09-26T04:42:08+00:0094.3%100.0%99.9%85.7%41.9%
2026-09-26T05:27:19+00:0094.3%100.0%99.9%85.7%41.9%
2026-09-26T06:12:26+00:0094.3%100.0%99.9%85.7%41.9%
2026-09-26T06:57:31+00:0094.3%100.0%99.9%85.7%41.9%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble>99%70.2°F3.0°F2026-09-25 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 2>99%69.8°F3.4°F2026-09-25 18:00Pending
AIFS Single94%65.9°F4.1°F2026-09-25 18:00Pending
IFS HRES86%63.5°F3.8°F2026-09-25 12:00Pending
National Blend85%63.0°F3.3°F2026-09-26 00:00Pending
NWS forecast59%60.0°F2.2°F2026-09-26 02:00Pending
ICON42%58.8°F3.4°F2026-09-26 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 60°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260926-TMAX-GE60
Opened Sep 26 · 03:11 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 60°F · Sat Sep 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗