KMSP / Sat Sep 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 60°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST96%Sep 26 · 06:57 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

>99%

94%

86%

42%

Consensus

96%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 71.0¢Risks 70.95u

ICONNO 29.0¢Risks 29.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +29.05u · ICON −29.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	92.3%	—	—	—	—	59.5%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	97.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	97.3%	—	—	—	—	96.6%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	95.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	99.6%	—	—	—	—	97.7%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	99.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	—	—	—	96.4%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	95.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	99.8%	—	—	—	—	96.1%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	93.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	90.7%	—	—	—	—	94.7%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	93.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	90.2%	—	—	—	—	95.7%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	89.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	91.9%	—	—	—	—	95.1%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	96.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	69.9%	—	—	—	—	95.7%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	97.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	—	—	—	95.0%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	93.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	89.2%	—	—	—	—	94.6%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	78.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	96.0%	—	—	—	—	95.0%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	81.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	92.6%	—	74.3%	—	—	93.4%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	83.5%	—	98.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	74.6%	—	99.2%	—	—	94.8%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	81.5%	—	62.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	88.3%	—	—	—	—	92.5%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	91.1%	—	98.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	74.6%	58.7%	99.9%	—	—	95.0%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	94.6%	—	99.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	91.3%	97.5%	98.4%	66.4%	—	97.6%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	95.8%	—	97.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	94.9%	84.8%	72.2%	92.1%	—	91.8%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	94.6%	—	89.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	97.3%	59.1%	84.5%	67.7%	—	89.3%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	97.4%	—	78.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	97.4%	62.5%	85.5%	90.3%	—	88.9%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	96.7%	—	81.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	96.4%	64.7%	88.4%	82.2%	—	88.4%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	97.9%	91.8%	95.5%	—	—	81.0%
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	96.6%	69.3%	84.4%	98.0%	—	85.9%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	95.2%	99.1%	77.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	67.0%	91.4%	75.6%	98.9%	—	80.4%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	65.7%	98.9%	95.4%	—	—	84.1%
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	78.2%	91.4%	78.2%	93.2%	—	87.9%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	93.0%	76.6%	99.5%	—	—	87.1%
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	96.5%	54.1%	70.6%	96.8%	—	93.6%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	91.2%	65.5%	97.0%	—	—	76.3%
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	97.7%	60.8%	99.4%	99.9%	—	88.1%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	95.2%	66.4%	99.8%	83.2%	—	90.3%
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	84.0%	80.1%	82.5%	99.4%	—	91.5%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	89.2%	97.5%	77.5%	97.1%	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	82.6%	99.2%	74.4%	98.8%	28.7%	93.3%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	80.9%	79.1%	80.0%	90.8%	—	94.7%
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	81.8%	56.7%	63.2%	83.5%	54.0%	90.5%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	75.8%	70.0%	56.9%	90.2%	—	83.6%
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	75.5%	70.7%	60.1%	96.8%	76.6%	89.2%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	84.7%	68.9%	57.5%	71.5%	—	88.0%
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	77.4%	69.7%	68.3%	91.1%	91.7%	84.8%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	63.0%	71.9%	71.9%	97.4%	—	88.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	>99%	70.2°F	3.0°F	2026-09-25 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	>99%	69.8°F	3.4°F	2026-09-25 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	94%	65.9°F	4.1°F	2026-09-25 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	86%	63.5°F	3.8°F	2026-09-25 12:00	Pending
National Blend	85%	63.0°F	3.3°F	2026-09-26 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	60.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-26 02:00	Pending
ICON	42%	58.8°F	3.4°F	2026-09-26 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 60°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260926-TMAX-GE60
Opened Sep 26 · 03:11 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 60°F · Sat Sep 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗