KMSP / Sat Sep 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST76%Sep 26 · 02:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

99%

97%

72%

50%

Consensus

76%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 53.7¢Risks 53.70u

ICONNO 46.3¢Risks 46.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +46.30u · ICON −46.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-26T02:26:25+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-23T03:34:37+00:00	67.4%	95.7%	97.6%	49.2%	75.7%
2026-09-23T04:19:44+00:00	67.4%	95.7%	97.6%	49.2%	75.7%
2026-09-23T05:04:54+00:00	67.4%	95.7%	97.6%	54.7%	69.6%
2026-09-23T05:50:05+00:00	67.4%	95.7%	97.6%	54.7%	69.6%
2026-09-23T06:35:10+00:00	67.4%	95.7%	97.6%	54.7%	69.6%
2026-09-23T07:20:18+00:00	67.4%	95.7%	97.6%	54.7%	69.6%
2026-09-23T08:05:44+00:00	79.4%	95.7%	97.6%	73.3%	69.6%
2026-09-23T08:51:12+00:00	79.4%	95.7%	97.6%	73.3%	69.6%
2026-09-23T09:36:17+00:00	79.4%	95.7%	97.6%	73.3%	69.6%
2026-09-23T10:21:21+00:00	79.4%	95.7%	97.6%	73.3%	69.6%
2026-09-23T11:06:29+00:00	79.4%	99.4%	98.7%	73.3%	69.6%
2026-09-23T11:51:39+00:00	79.4%	99.4%	98.7%	73.3%	69.6%
2026-09-23T12:36:44+00:00	79.4%	99.4%	98.7%	73.3%	69.6%
2026-09-23T13:21:49+00:00	79.4%	99.4%	98.7%	73.3%	69.6%
2026-09-23T14:09:06+00:00	92.2%	99.3%	98.7%	73.3%	69.6%
2026-09-23T14:54:19+00:00	92.2%	99.3%	98.7%	73.3%	69.6%
2026-09-23T15:39:31+00:00	92.2%	99.3%	98.7%	73.3%	69.6%
2026-09-23T16:24:38+00:00	92.2%	99.3%	98.7%	73.3%	69.6%
2026-09-23T17:09:48+00:00	92.2%	99.3%	98.6%	73.3%	20.5%
2026-09-23T17:54:55+00:00	92.2%	99.3%	98.6%	73.3%	20.5%
2026-09-23T18:40:01+00:00	92.2%	99.3%	98.6%	73.3%	20.5%
2026-09-23T19:25:12+00:00	95.0%	99.3%	98.6%	89.7%	20.5%
2026-09-23T20:10:19+00:00	95.0%	99.3%	98.6%	89.7%	20.5%
2026-09-23T20:55:25+00:00	95.0%	99.3%	98.6%	89.7%	20.5%
2026-09-23T21:40:31+00:00	95.0%	99.3%	98.6%	89.7%	20.5%
2026-09-23T22:25:37+00:00	95.0%	99.3%	98.6%	89.7%	20.5%
2026-09-23T23:10:43+00:00	95.0%	99.4%	99.2%	89.7%	20.5%
2026-09-23T23:55:49+00:00	95.0%	99.4%	99.2%	89.7%	20.5%
2026-09-24T00:40:55+00:00	95.0%	99.4%	99.2%	89.7%	20.5%
2026-09-24T01:26:06+00:00	95.0%	99.4%	99.2%	89.7%	20.5%
2026-09-24T02:11:12+00:00	89.2%	99.4%	99.2%	89.7%	20.5%
2026-09-24T02:56:31+00:00	89.2%	99.4%	99.2%	89.7%	20.5%
2026-09-24T03:41:54+00:00	89.2%	99.4%	99.2%	89.7%	20.5%
2026-09-24T04:27:00+00:00	89.2%	99.4%	99.2%	89.7%	20.5%
2026-09-24T05:12:06+00:00	89.2%	99.4%	99.0%	89.7%	16.7%
2026-09-24T05:57:15+00:00	89.2%	99.4%	99.0%	89.7%	16.7%
2026-09-24T06:42:26+00:00	89.2%	99.4%	99.0%	89.7%	16.7%
2026-09-24T07:27:54+00:00	89.2%	99.4%	99.0%	89.7%	16.7%
2026-09-24T08:13:26+00:00	96.4%	99.4%	99.0%	80.2%	16.7%
2026-09-24T08:58:37+00:00	96.4%	99.4%	99.0%	80.2%	16.7%
2026-09-24T09:43:42+00:00	96.4%	99.4%	99.0%	80.2%	16.7%
2026-09-24T10:28:47+00:00	96.4%	99.4%	99.0%	80.2%	16.7%
2026-09-24T11:13:52+00:00	96.4%	98.9%	98.9%	80.2%	16.7%
2026-09-24T11:58:58+00:00	96.4%	98.9%	98.9%	80.2%	16.7%
2026-09-24T12:44:03+00:00	96.4%	98.9%	98.9%	80.2%	16.7%
2026-09-24T13:29:18+00:00	96.4%	98.9%	98.9%	80.2%	16.7%
2026-09-24T14:16:42+00:00	93.1%	98.7%	98.9%	80.2%	16.8%
2026-09-24T15:01:54+00:00	93.1%	98.7%	98.9%	80.2%	16.8%
2026-09-25T03:04:20+00:00	85.4%	99.2%	98.1%	82.2%	33.5%
2026-09-25T03:49:45+00:00	85.4%	99.2%	98.1%	82.2%	33.5%
2026-09-25T04:34:51+00:00	85.4%	99.2%	98.1%	82.2%	75.2%
2026-09-25T05:19:59+00:00	85.4%	99.2%	97.8%	82.2%	75.2%
2026-09-25T06:05:05+00:00	85.4%	99.2%	97.8%	82.2%	75.2%
2026-09-25T06:50:10+00:00	85.4%	99.2%	97.8%	82.2%	75.2%
2026-09-25T07:35:18+00:00	79.9%	99.2%	97.8%	82.2%	75.2%
2026-09-25T08:20:24+00:00	79.9%	99.2%	97.8%	82.2%	75.2%
2026-09-25T09:05:30+00:00	79.9%	99.2%	97.8%	82.2%	75.2%
2026-09-25T09:50:34+00:00	79.9%	99.2%	97.8%	82.2%	75.2%
2026-09-25T10:35:40+00:00	79.9%	99.2%	97.8%	82.2%	75.2%
2026-09-25T11:20:47+00:00	79.9%	98.6%	97.8%	82.2%	75.2%
2026-09-25T12:05:53+00:00	79.9%	98.6%	97.8%	82.2%	75.2%
2026-09-25T12:50:58+00:00	79.9%	98.6%	97.8%	82.2%	75.2%
2026-09-25T13:36:04+00:00	77.7%	98.6%	97.8%	82.2%	75.2%
2026-09-25T14:23:06+00:00	77.7%	98.5%	97.8%	82.2%	75.2%
2026-09-25T15:08:12+00:00	77.7%	98.5%	97.8%	82.2%	75.2%
2026-09-25T15:53:17+00:00	77.7%	98.6%	97.8%	82.2%	75.2%
2026-09-25T16:38:23+00:00	77.7%	98.6%	97.8%	82.2%	8.7%
2026-09-25T17:23:31+00:00	77.7%	98.6%	96.5%	82.2%	8.7%
2026-09-25T18:08:50+00:00	77.7%	98.6%	96.5%	82.2%	8.7%
2026-09-25T18:54:07+00:00	77.7%	98.6%	96.5%	82.2%	8.7%
2026-09-25T19:39:41+00:00	77.7%	98.6%	96.5%	50.0%	8.7%
2026-09-25T20:25:17+00:00	77.7%	98.6%	96.5%	50.0%	8.7%
2026-09-25T21:10:23+00:00	77.7%	98.6%	96.5%	50.0%	8.7%
2026-09-25T21:55:28+00:00	77.7%	98.6%	96.5%	50.0%	8.7%
2026-09-25T22:40:33+00:00	77.7%	98.6%	96.5%	50.0%	8.7%
2026-09-25T23:25:38+00:00	77.7%	98.7%	97.4%	50.0%	8.7%
2026-09-26T00:10:44+00:00	77.7%	98.7%	97.4%	50.0%	8.7%
2026-09-26T00:55:54+00:00	77.7%	98.7%	97.4%	50.0%	8.7%
2026-09-26T01:41:05+00:00	72.3%	98.7%	97.4%	50.0%	8.7%
2026-09-26T02:26:25+00:00	72.3%	98.7%	97.4%	50.0%	8.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	99%	70.2°F	3.0°F	2026-09-25 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	97%	70.1°F	3.4°F	2026-09-25 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	72%	65.9°F	4.1°F	2026-09-25 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	64.0°F	3.1°F	2026-09-25 17:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	64.0°F	4.4°F	2026-09-25 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	50%	63.5°F	3.8°F	2026-09-25 12:00	Pending
ICON	9%	58.7°F	3.5°F	2026-09-25 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260926-TMAX-GE64
Opened Sep 23 · 03:34 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 64°F · Sat Sep 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗