KMSP / Sat Sep 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST76%Sep 26 · 02:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

99%

97%

72%

50%

Consensus

76%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 53.7¢Risks 53.70u

ICONNO 46.3¢Risks 46.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +46.30u · ICON −46.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	81.4%	—	—	—	—	38.5%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	92.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	91.7%	—	—	—	—	90.2%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	88.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	98.4%	—	—	—	—	92.9%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	97.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	89.7%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	87.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	99.1%	—	—	—	—	89.0%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	84.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	78.4%	—	—	—	—	86.0%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	82.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	77.6%	—	—	—	—	88.2%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	—	—	—	86.9%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	89.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	88.0%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	93.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	61.4%	—	—	—	—	86.2%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	83.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	—	85.1%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	58.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	87.7%	—	—	—	—	85.5%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	61.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	79.9%	—	51.8%	—	—	81.5%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	63.9%	—	94.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	51.3%	—	96.4%	—	—	83.9%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	60.1%	—	36.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	70.5%	—	—	—	—	78.3%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	94.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	49.3%	32.4%	99.3%	—	—	83.3%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	82.0%	—	98.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	74.3%	89.5%	92.6%	38.9%	—	89.8%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	84.3%	—	90.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	81.6%	61.6%	44.2%	75.1%	—	74.6%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	80.6%	—	68.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	87.8%	29.6%	59.8%	38.0%	—	68.4%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	87.6%	—	50.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	87.3%	31.6%	60.3%	69.2%	—	66.3%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	84.7%	—	52.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	83.2%	32.2%	63.9%	53.3%	—	63.9%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	88.1%	70.4%	79.9%	—	—	50.9%
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	82.8%	35.4%	55.2%	87.8%	—	57.8%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	77.8%	92.5%	44.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	31.4%	67.0%	40.9%	91.4%	—	47.2%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	29.2%	90.8%	76.9%	—	—	51.9%
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	42.3%	65.2%	42.3%	69.6%	—	57.7%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	68.3%	39.1%	94.0%	—	—	55.0%
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	78.1%	17.6%	31.2%	79.5%	—	68.8%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	61.5%	25.3%	79.5%	—	—	36.5%
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	81.7%	20.6%	91.9%	97.6%	—	53.3%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	70.4%	24.0%	96.0%	43.3%	—	56.7%
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	43.0%	37.4%	40.8%	90.6%	—	58.1%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	51.2%	77.5%	32.5%	75.6%	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	37.7%	87.6%	27.6%	84.1%	3.5%	59.9%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	33.7%	31.4%	32.5%	51.3%	—	62.7%
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	33.1%	12.0%	15.7%	35.6%	10.7%	48.7%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	24.2%	19.1%	11.1%	45.8%	—	33.8%
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	22.2%	18.2%	11.5%	65.5%	23.4%	41.4%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	31.1%	15.3%	9.2%	17.2%	—	36.6%
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	20.3%	14.2%	13.4%	40.6%	42.1%	29.0%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	9.2%	14.1%	14.1%	61.4%	—	32.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	99%	70.2°F	3.0°F	2026-09-25 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	97%	70.1°F	3.4°F	2026-09-25 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	72%	65.9°F	4.1°F	2026-09-25 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	64.0°F	3.1°F	2026-09-25 17:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	64.0°F	4.4°F	2026-09-25 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	50%	63.5°F	3.8°F	2026-09-25 12:00	Pending
ICON	9%	58.7°F	3.5°F	2026-09-25 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260926-TMAX-GE64
Opened Sep 23 · 03:34 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 64°F · Sat Sep 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗