KMSP / Sun Sep 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST82%Sep 27 · 02:34 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

93%

89%

84%

80%

68%

Consensus

82%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 80.2¢Risks 80.20u

ICONNO 19.8¢Risks 19.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +19.80u · ICON −19.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-27T02:34:32+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-24T15:47:18+00:00	78.2%	63.4%	86.1%	58.8%	32.3%
2026-09-24T16:32:28+00:00	78.2%	63.4%	86.1%	58.8%	32.3%
2026-09-24T17:17:33+00:00	78.2%	63.4%	88.3%	58.8%	32.3%
2026-09-24T18:02:39+00:00	78.2%	63.4%	88.3%	58.8%	32.3%
2026-09-24T18:47:44+00:00	78.2%	63.4%	88.3%	58.8%	32.3%
2026-09-24T19:32:54+00:00	76.8%	63.4%	88.3%	58.8%	41.9%
2026-09-24T20:18:02+00:00	76.8%	63.4%	88.3%	58.8%	41.9%
2026-09-24T21:03:07+00:00	76.8%	63.4%	88.3%	58.8%	41.9%
2026-09-24T21:48:12+00:00	76.8%	63.4%	88.3%	58.8%	41.9%
2026-09-24T22:33:18+00:00	76.8%	63.4%	88.3%	66.4%	41.9%
2026-09-24T23:18:25+00:00	76.8%	64.3%	91.2%	66.4%	41.9%
2026-09-25T00:03:30+00:00	76.8%	64.3%	91.2%	66.4%	41.9%
2026-09-25T00:48:44+00:00	76.8%	64.3%	91.2%	66.4%	41.9%
2026-09-25T01:33:52+00:00	70.1%	64.3%	91.2%	66.4%	41.9%
2026-09-25T02:18:59+00:00	70.1%	64.3%	91.2%	66.4%	41.9%
2026-09-25T03:04:20+00:00	70.1%	64.3%	91.2%	66.4%	41.9%
2026-09-25T03:49:45+00:00	70.1%	64.3%	91.2%	66.4%	41.9%
2026-09-25T04:34:51+00:00	70.1%	64.3%	91.2%	66.4%	11.2%
2026-09-25T05:19:59+00:00	70.1%	64.3%	85.5%	66.4%	11.2%
2026-09-25T06:05:05+00:00	70.1%	64.3%	85.5%	66.4%	11.2%
2026-09-25T06:50:10+00:00	70.1%	64.3%	85.5%	66.4%	11.2%
2026-09-25T07:35:18+00:00	70.9%	64.3%	85.5%	66.4%	11.2%
2026-09-25T08:20:24+00:00	70.9%	64.3%	85.5%	66.4%	11.2%
2026-09-25T09:05:30+00:00	70.9%	64.3%	85.5%	66.4%	11.2%
2026-09-25T09:50:34+00:00	70.9%	64.3%	85.5%	66.4%	11.2%
2026-09-25T10:35:40+00:00	70.9%	64.3%	85.5%	66.4%	11.2%
2026-09-25T11:20:47+00:00	70.9%	62.3%	85.5%	66.4%	11.2%
2026-09-25T12:05:53+00:00	70.9%	62.3%	85.5%	66.4%	11.2%
2026-09-25T12:50:58+00:00	70.9%	62.3%	85.5%	66.4%	11.2%
2026-09-25T13:36:04+00:00	74.9%	62.3%	85.5%	66.4%	11.2%
2026-09-25T14:23:06+00:00	74.9%	62.2%	85.5%	66.4%	11.2%
2026-09-25T15:08:12+00:00	74.9%	62.2%	85.5%	66.4%	11.2%
2026-09-25T15:53:17+00:00	74.9%	62.3%	85.5%	66.4%	11.2%
2026-09-25T16:38:23+00:00	74.9%	62.3%	85.5%	66.4%	72.4%
2026-09-25T17:23:31+00:00	74.9%	62.3%	84.6%	66.4%	72.4%
2026-09-25T18:08:50+00:00	74.9%	62.3%	84.6%	66.4%	72.4%
2026-09-25T18:54:07+00:00	74.9%	62.3%	84.6%	66.4%	72.4%
2026-09-25T19:39:41+00:00	78.5%	62.3%	84.6%	85.2%	72.4%
2026-09-25T20:25:17+00:00	78.5%	62.3%	84.6%	85.2%	72.4%
2026-09-25T21:10:23+00:00	78.5%	62.3%	84.6%	85.2%	72.4%
2026-09-25T21:55:28+00:00	78.5%	62.3%	84.6%	85.2%	72.4%
2026-09-25T22:40:33+00:00	78.5%	62.3%	84.6%	85.2%	72.4%
2026-09-25T23:25:38+00:00	78.5%	63.4%	88.3%	85.2%	72.4%
2026-09-26T00:10:44+00:00	78.5%	63.4%	88.3%	85.2%	72.4%
2026-09-26T00:55:54+00:00	78.5%	63.4%	88.3%	85.2%	72.4%
2026-09-26T01:41:05+00:00	74.1%	63.4%	88.3%	85.2%	72.4%
2026-09-26T02:26:25+00:00	74.1%	63.4%	88.3%	85.2%	72.4%
2026-09-26T03:11:45+00:00	74.1%	63.4%	88.3%	85.2%	72.4%
2026-09-26T03:56:57+00:00	74.1%	63.4%	88.3%	85.2%	72.4%
2026-09-26T04:42:08+00:00	74.1%	63.4%	88.3%	85.2%	60.1%
2026-09-26T05:27:19+00:00	74.1%	63.4%	88.8%	85.2%	60.1%
2026-09-26T06:12:26+00:00	74.1%	63.4%	88.8%	85.2%	60.1%
2026-09-26T06:57:31+00:00	74.1%	63.4%	88.8%	85.2%	60.1%
2026-09-26T07:43:04+00:00	80.6%	63.4%	88.8%	88.0%	60.1%
2026-09-26T08:28:40+00:00	80.6%	63.4%	88.8%	88.0%	60.1%
2026-09-26T09:13:46+00:00	80.6%	63.4%	88.8%	88.0%	60.1%
2026-09-26T09:58:52+00:00	80.6%	63.4%	88.8%	88.0%	60.1%
2026-09-26T10:44:05+00:00	80.6%	63.4%	88.8%	88.0%	60.1%
2026-09-26T11:29:18+00:00	80.6%	80.3%	90.7%	88.0%	60.1%
2026-09-26T12:14:30+00:00	80.6%	80.3%	90.7%	88.0%	60.1%
2026-09-26T12:59:36+00:00	80.6%	80.3%	90.7%	88.0%	60.1%
2026-09-26T13:44:45+00:00	82.5%	80.3%	90.7%	88.0%	60.1%
2026-09-26T14:32:10+00:00	82.5%	80.3%	90.7%	88.0%	60.1%
2026-09-26T15:17:30+00:00	82.5%	79.6%	90.7%	88.0%	60.1%
2026-09-26T16:02:36+00:00	82.5%	79.6%	90.7%	88.0%	60.1%
2026-09-26T16:47:43+00:00	82.5%	79.6%	90.7%	88.0%	67.5%
2026-09-26T17:32:51+00:00	82.5%	79.6%	90.7%	88.0%	67.5%
2026-09-26T18:18:00+00:00	82.5%	79.6%	90.7%	88.0%	67.5%
2026-09-26T19:03:08+00:00	82.5%	79.6%	90.7%	88.0%	67.5%
2026-09-26T19:48:19+00:00	87.6%	79.6%	90.7%	89.1%	67.5%
2026-09-26T20:33:27+00:00	87.6%	79.6%	90.7%	89.1%	67.5%
2026-09-26T21:18:33+00:00	87.6%	79.6%	90.7%	89.1%	67.5%
2026-09-26T22:03:38+00:00	87.6%	79.6%	90.7%	89.1%	67.5%
2026-09-26T22:48:46+00:00	87.6%	79.6%	90.7%	89.1%	67.5%
2026-09-26T23:33:57+00:00	87.6%	80.4%	92.9%	89.1%	67.5%
2026-09-27T00:19:03+00:00	87.6%	80.4%	92.9%	89.1%	67.5%
2026-09-27T01:04:12+00:00	87.6%	80.4%	92.9%	89.1%	67.5%
2026-09-27T01:49:26+00:00	84.4%	80.4%	92.9%	89.1%	67.5%
2026-09-27T02:34:32+00:00	84.4%	80.4%	92.9%	89.1%	67.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	93%	72.5°F	3.4°F	2026-09-26 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	89%	72.1°F	3.7°F	2026-09-26 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	84%	71.6°F	4.1°F	2026-09-26 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	80%	70.4°F	3.4°F	2026-09-26 00:00	Pending
ICON	68%	69.1°F	3.5°F	2026-09-26 12:00	Pending
National Blend	57%	68.0°F	2.9°F	2026-09-26 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	68.0°F	3.1°F	2026-09-26 14:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260927-TMAX-GE68
Opened Sep 24 · 15:47 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 68°F · Sun Sep 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗