KMSP / Sun Sep 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST82%Sep 27 · 02:34 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

93%

89%

84%

80%

68%

Consensus

82%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 80.2¢Risks 80.20u

ICONNO 19.8¢Risks 19.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +19.80u · ICON −19.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	22.0%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	99.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	74.8%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	90.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	72.1%	—	—	—	—	71.2%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	64.5%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—	68.4%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	70.8%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	67.0%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	84.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	67.0%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	78.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	63.1%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	—	—	—	63.0%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	63.4%	—	—	—	—	62.8%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	56.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	14.8%	—	—	—	—	61.6%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	61.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	49.4%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	21.1%	—	44.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	30.7%	—	16.8%	—	—	59.3%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	35.0%	—	86.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	58.4%	—	76.9%	—	—	69.4%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	72.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	61.3%	6.8%	—	—	—	65.2%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	52.8%	—	85.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	68.9%	33.0%	90.4%	13.0%	—	59.1%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	74.1%	—	68.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	48.5%	28.5%	54.4%	48.5%	—	55.8%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	44.0%	—	83.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	31.6%	56.8%	80.5%	91.9%	—	68.4%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	33.4%	—	90.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	33.7%	82.1%	63.3%	58.7%	—	79.4%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	32.6%	—	72.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	32.2%	18.9%	40.1%	62.3%	—	77.5%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	36.6%	5.6%	55.1%	—	—	4.7%
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	35.4%	14.6%	57.0%	67.8%	—	53.5%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	36.8%	64.1%	59.8%	—	—	1.9%
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	29.7%	19.0%	65.3%	68.6%	—	38.2%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	20.3%	84.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	36.6%	28.7%	40.4%	80.3%	—	56.8%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	42.0%	21.9%	43.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	38.8%	36.9%	86.1%	33.0%	—	45.9%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	30.7%	22.8%	16.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	29.2%	14.3%	52.2%	25.5%	—	51.1%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	34.6%	4.8%	59.0%	0.8%	—	0.2%
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	39.6%	76.7%	60.4%	40.8%	—	71.0%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	32.5%	88.0%	13.2%	35.9%	—	71.7%
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	75.4%	61.1%	32.0%	0.1%	77.3%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	44.9%	87.8%	82.6%	43.6%	—	84.2%
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	58.0%	83.5%	64.4%	42.0%	39.4%	85.1%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	48.6%	80.9%	72.4%	66.2%	—	80.9%
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	44.2%	85.4%	61.4%	54.3%	34.5%	76.6%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	70.2%	92.0%	90.8%	61.9%	—	89.5%
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	59.4%	76.2%	90.4%	34.6%	56.3%	88.3%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	28.1%	78.5%	90.1%	40.2%	—	66.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	93%	72.5°F	3.4°F	2026-09-26 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	89%	72.1°F	3.7°F	2026-09-26 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	84%	71.6°F	4.1°F	2026-09-26 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	80%	70.4°F	3.4°F	2026-09-26 00:00	Pending
ICON	68%	69.1°F	3.5°F	2026-09-26 12:00	Pending
National Blend	57%	68.0°F	2.9°F	2026-09-26 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	68.0°F	3.1°F	2026-09-26 14:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260927-TMAX-GE68
Opened Sep 24 · 15:47 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 68°F · Sun Sep 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗