KMSP / Sun Sep 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST74%Sep 27 · 07:05 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

85%

83%

78%

71%

46%

Consensus

74%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 66.0¢Risks 65.95u

ICONNO 34.1¢Risks 34.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +34.05u · ICON −34.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-27T07:05:44+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-24T02:56:31+00:00	53.4%	54.5%	79.2%	7.9%	23.0%
2026-09-24T03:41:54+00:00	53.4%	54.5%	79.2%	7.9%	23.0%
2026-09-24T04:27:00+00:00	53.4%	54.5%	79.2%	7.9%	23.0%
2026-09-24T05:12:06+00:00	53.4%	54.5%	77.7%	7.9%	22.8%
2026-09-24T05:57:15+00:00	53.4%	54.5%	77.7%	7.9%	22.8%
2026-09-24T06:42:26+00:00	53.4%	54.5%	77.7%	7.9%	22.8%
2026-09-24T07:27:54+00:00	53.4%	54.5%	77.7%	7.9%	22.8%
2026-09-24T08:13:26+00:00	66.8%	54.5%	77.7%	50.0%	22.8%
2026-09-24T08:58:37+00:00	66.8%	54.5%	77.7%	50.0%	22.8%
2026-09-24T09:43:42+00:00	66.8%	54.5%	77.7%	50.0%	22.8%
2026-09-24T10:28:47+00:00	66.8%	54.5%	77.7%	50.0%	22.8%
2026-09-24T11:13:52+00:00	66.8%	53.9%	79.2%	50.0%	22.8%
2026-09-24T11:58:58+00:00	66.8%	53.9%	79.2%	50.0%	22.8%
2026-09-24T12:44:03+00:00	66.8%	53.9%	79.2%	50.0%	22.8%
2026-09-24T13:29:18+00:00	66.8%	53.9%	79.2%	50.0%	22.8%
2026-09-24T14:16:42+00:00	70.9%	53.9%	79.2%	50.0%	23.7%
2026-09-24T15:01:54+00:00	70.9%	53.9%	79.2%	50.0%	23.7%
2026-09-27T03:19:50+00:00	77.7%	71.2%	88.0%	83.2%	56.7%
2026-09-27T04:05:14+00:00	77.7%	71.2%	88.0%	83.2%	56.7%
2026-09-27T04:50:20+00:00	77.7%	71.2%	88.0%	83.2%	46.5%
2026-09-27T05:35:29+00:00	77.7%	71.2%	85.4%	83.2%	46.5%
2026-09-27T06:20:39+00:00	77.7%	71.2%	85.4%	83.2%	46.5%
2026-09-27T07:05:44+00:00	77.7%	71.2%	85.4%	83.2%	46.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	85%	72.1°F	3.4°F	2026-09-26 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	83%	72.1°F	3.7°F	2026-09-26 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	78%	71.6°F	4.1°F	2026-09-26 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	71%	70.4°F	3.4°F	2026-09-26 00:00	Pending
National Blend	68%	70.1°F	3.3°F	2026-09-27 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	69.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-27 02:00	Pending
ICON	46%	68.2°F	3.4°F	2026-09-27 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260927-TMAX-GE69
Opened Sep 24 · 02:56 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 69°F · Sun Sep 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗