KMSP / Sun Sep 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST74%Sep 27 · 07:05 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

85%

83%

78%

71%

46%

Consensus

74%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 66.0¢Risks 65.95u

ICONNO 34.1¢Risks 34.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +34.05u · ICON −34.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	18.2%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	99.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	70.3%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	88.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	66.5%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	59.5%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	—	63.6%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	62.1%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	62.1%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	58.0%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	15.0%	—	—	—	—	57.7%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	57.3%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	50.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	11.7%	—	—	—	—	55.9%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	55.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	10.9%	—	—	—	—	43.4%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	38.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	25.4%	—	13.2%	—	—	53.1%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	29.3%	—	82.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	51.9%	—	71.6%	—	—	63.4%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	73.6%	—	66.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	54.7%	4.8%	—	—	—	58.7%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	45.9%	—	80.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	62.4%	26.9%	87.0%	9.6%	—	52.1%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	61.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	22.6%	47.1%	41.3%	—	48.5%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	36.8%	—	77.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	25.1%	49.2%	74.9%	88.6%	—	61.3%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	26.6%	—	86.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	26.8%	76.4%	55.6%	50.8%	—	73.2%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	25.6%	—	65.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	25.1%	13.8%	32.2%	54.2%	—	70.7%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	28.8%	3.6%	46.6%	—	—	3.0%
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	27.7%	10.1%	48.2%	59.6%	—	44.8%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	28.7%	55.4%	50.9%	—	—	1.1%
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	22.3%	13.4%	56.4%	60.0%	—	29.7%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	18.4%	14.3%	77.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	27.9%	21.0%	31.3%	72.9%	—	47.1%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	32.6%	15.2%	33.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	29.4%	27.6%	79.5%	24.3%	—	35.9%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	15.6%	11.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	20.6%	9.0%	41.3%	17.6%	—	40.3%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	24.9%	2.6%	47.8%	0.4%	—	0.1%
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	28.9%	66.9%	48.8%	30.0%	—	60.4%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	22.5%	80.9%	7.8%	25.3%	—	60.7%
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	29.8%	64.6%	48.8%	21.7%	0.0%	66.9%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	32.5%	80.0%	73.1%	31.4%	—	75.2%
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	44.6%	73.9%	51.3%	29.5%	27.3%	76.0%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	35.0%	70.0%	59.7%	52.8%	—	70.0%
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	30.5%	75.5%	47.1%	40.0%	22.2%	64.2%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	56.0%	84.7%	82.8%	47.0%	—	80.8%
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	43.7%	62.4%	81.9%	21.4%	40.6%	78.6%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	16.0%	64.5%	80.8%	25.4%	—	50.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	85%	72.1°F	3.4°F	2026-09-26 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	83%	72.1°F	3.7°F	2026-09-26 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	78%	71.6°F	4.1°F	2026-09-26 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	71%	70.4°F	3.4°F	2026-09-26 00:00	Pending
National Blend	68%	70.1°F	3.3°F	2026-09-27 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	69.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-27 02:00	Pending
ICON	46%	68.2°F	3.4°F	2026-09-27 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260927-TMAX-GE69
Opened Sep 24 · 02:56 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 69°F · Sun Sep 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗