KMSP / Mon Sep 28 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST76%Sep 26 · 13:44 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

80%

77%

72%

66%

66%

Consensus

76%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 73.0¢Risks 36.48u

EPSNO 27.0¢Risks 13.52u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +13.52u · EPS −13.52u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-26T13:44:45+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-22T02:42:29+00:00	52.2%	51.0%	74.7%	86.4%	58.9%
2026-09-22T03:27:45+00:00	52.2%	51.0%	74.7%	86.4%	58.9%
2026-09-22T04:12:50+00:00	52.2%	51.0%	74.7%	86.4%	58.9%
2026-09-22T04:57:59+00:00	52.2%	51.0%	74.7%	86.4%	82.4%
2026-09-22T05:43:25+00:00	52.2%	51.0%	74.7%	86.4%	82.4%
2026-09-22T06:28:41+00:00	52.2%	51.0%	74.7%	86.4%	82.4%
2026-09-22T07:13:49+00:00	52.2%	51.0%	74.7%	86.4%	82.4%
2026-09-22T07:59:13+00:00	68.0%	51.0%	74.7%	80.0%	82.4%
2026-09-22T08:44:41+00:00	68.0%	51.0%	74.7%	80.0%	82.4%
2026-09-22T09:29:46+00:00	68.0%	51.0%	74.7%	80.0%	82.4%
2026-09-22T10:14:52+00:00	68.0%	51.0%	74.7%	80.0%	82.4%
2026-09-22T11:00:02+00:00	68.0%	67.9%	74.7%	80.0%	82.4%
2026-09-22T11:45:11+00:00	68.0%	67.9%	74.7%	80.0%	82.4%
2026-09-22T12:30:16+00:00	68.0%	67.9%	74.7%	80.0%	82.4%
2026-09-22T13:15:21+00:00	68.0%	67.9%	74.7%	80.0%	82.4%
2026-09-22T14:00:29+00:00	53.0%	67.9%	74.7%	80.0%	82.4%
2026-09-22T14:47:14+00:00	53.0%	67.9%	74.7%	80.0%	82.4%
2026-09-24T02:56:32+00:00	59.6%	56.1%	84.1%	53.4%	77.9%
2026-09-24T03:41:54+00:00	59.6%	56.1%	84.1%	53.4%	77.9%
2026-09-24T04:27:00+00:00	59.6%	56.1%	84.1%	53.4%	77.9%
2026-09-24T05:12:06+00:00	59.6%	56.1%	81.7%	53.4%	54.2%
2026-09-24T05:57:15+00:00	59.6%	56.1%	81.7%	53.4%	54.2%
2026-09-24T06:42:26+00:00	59.6%	56.1%	81.7%	53.4%	54.2%
2026-09-24T07:27:54+00:00	59.6%	56.1%	81.7%	53.4%	54.2%
2026-09-24T08:13:26+00:00	69.8%	56.1%	81.7%	46.0%	54.2%
2026-09-24T08:58:37+00:00	69.8%	56.1%	81.7%	46.0%	54.2%
2026-09-24T09:43:42+00:00	69.8%	56.1%	81.7%	46.0%	54.2%
2026-09-24T10:28:47+00:00	69.8%	56.1%	81.7%	46.0%	54.2%
2026-09-24T11:13:52+00:00	69.8%	60.0%	86.2%	46.0%	54.2%
2026-09-24T11:58:58+00:00	69.8%	60.0%	86.2%	46.0%	54.2%
2026-09-24T12:44:03+00:00	69.8%	60.0%	86.2%	46.0%	54.2%
2026-09-24T13:29:18+00:00	69.8%	60.0%	86.2%	46.0%	54.2%
2026-09-24T14:16:42+00:00	61.9%	59.9%	86.2%	46.0%	54.2%
2026-09-24T15:01:54+00:00	61.9%	59.9%	86.2%	46.0%	54.2%
2026-09-24T15:47:18+00:00	61.9%	60.0%	86.2%	46.0%	54.2%
2026-09-24T16:32:28+00:00	61.9%	60.0%	86.2%	46.0%	54.2%
2026-09-24T17:17:33+00:00	61.9%	60.0%	87.8%	46.0%	54.2%
2026-09-24T18:02:39+00:00	61.9%	60.0%	87.8%	46.0%	54.2%
2026-09-24T18:47:44+00:00	61.9%	60.0%	87.8%	46.0%	54.2%
2026-09-24T19:32:54+00:00	49.1%	60.0%	87.8%	46.0%	46.6%
2026-09-24T20:18:02+00:00	49.1%	60.0%	87.8%	46.0%	46.6%
2026-09-24T21:03:07+00:00	49.1%	60.0%	87.8%	46.0%	46.6%
2026-09-24T21:48:12+00:00	49.1%	60.0%	87.8%	46.0%	46.6%
2026-09-24T22:33:18+00:00	49.1%	60.0%	87.8%	68.3%	46.6%
2026-09-24T23:18:25+00:00	49.1%	61.1%	86.2%	68.3%	46.6%
2026-09-25T00:03:30+00:00	49.1%	61.1%	86.2%	68.3%	46.6%
2026-09-25T00:48:44+00:00	49.1%	61.1%	86.2%	68.3%	46.6%
2026-09-25T01:33:52+00:00	52.6%	61.1%	86.2%	68.3%	46.6%
2026-09-25T02:18:59+00:00	52.6%	61.1%	86.2%	68.3%	46.6%
2026-09-25T03:04:20+00:00	52.6%	61.1%	86.2%	68.3%	46.6%
2026-09-25T03:49:45+00:00	52.6%	61.1%	86.2%	68.3%	46.6%
2026-09-25T04:34:51+00:00	52.6%	61.1%	86.2%	68.3%	24.5%
2026-09-25T05:19:59+00:00	52.6%	61.1%	80.6%	68.3%	24.5%
2026-09-25T06:05:05+00:00	52.6%	61.1%	80.6%	68.3%	24.5%
2026-09-25T06:50:10+00:00	52.6%	61.1%	80.6%	68.3%	24.5%
2026-09-25T07:35:18+00:00	50.0%	61.1%	80.6%	68.3%	24.5%
2026-09-25T08:20:24+00:00	50.0%	61.1%	80.6%	68.3%	24.5%
2026-09-25T09:05:30+00:00	50.0%	61.1%	80.6%	68.3%	24.5%
2026-09-25T09:50:34+00:00	50.0%	61.1%	80.6%	68.3%	24.5%
2026-09-25T10:35:40+00:00	50.0%	61.1%	80.6%	68.3%	24.5%
2026-09-25T11:20:47+00:00	50.0%	56.8%	80.6%	68.3%	24.5%
2026-09-25T12:05:53+00:00	50.0%	56.8%	80.6%	68.3%	24.5%
2026-09-25T12:50:58+00:00	50.0%	56.8%	80.6%	68.3%	24.5%
2026-09-25T13:36:04+00:00	54.6%	56.8%	80.6%	68.3%	24.5%
2026-09-25T14:23:06+00:00	54.6%	56.7%	80.6%	68.3%	23.7%
2026-09-25T15:08:12+00:00	54.6%	56.7%	80.6%	68.3%	23.7%
2026-09-25T15:53:17+00:00	54.6%	56.8%	80.6%	68.3%	23.7%
2026-09-25T16:38:23+00:00	54.6%	56.8%	80.6%	68.3%	77.1%
2026-09-25T17:23:31+00:00	54.6%	56.8%	76.8%	68.3%	77.1%
2026-09-25T18:08:50+00:00	54.6%	56.8%	76.8%	68.3%	77.1%
2026-09-25T18:54:07+00:00	54.6%	56.8%	76.8%	68.3%	77.1%
2026-09-25T19:39:41+00:00	59.9%	56.8%	76.8%	78.8%	77.1%
2026-09-25T20:25:17+00:00	59.9%	56.8%	76.8%	78.8%	77.1%
2026-09-25T21:10:23+00:00	59.9%	56.8%	76.8%	78.8%	77.1%
2026-09-25T21:55:28+00:00	59.9%	56.8%	76.8%	78.8%	77.1%
2026-09-25T22:40:33+00:00	59.9%	56.8%	76.8%	78.8%	77.1%
2026-09-25T23:25:38+00:00	59.9%	58.1%	80.0%	78.8%	77.8%
2026-09-26T00:10:44+00:00	59.9%	58.1%	80.0%	78.8%	77.8%
2026-09-26T00:55:54+00:00	59.9%	58.1%	80.0%	78.8%	77.8%
2026-09-26T01:41:05+00:00	54.6%	58.1%	80.0%	78.8%	77.8%
2026-09-26T02:26:25+00:00	54.6%	58.1%	80.0%	78.8%	77.8%
2026-09-26T03:11:45+00:00	54.6%	58.1%	80.0%	78.8%	77.8%
2026-09-26T03:56:57+00:00	54.6%	58.1%	80.0%	78.8%	77.8%
2026-09-26T04:42:08+00:00	54.6%	58.1%	80.0%	78.8%	76.9%
2026-09-26T05:27:19+00:00	54.6%	58.1%	82.9%	78.8%	76.9%
2026-09-26T06:12:26+00:00	54.6%	58.1%	82.9%	78.8%	76.9%
2026-09-26T06:57:31+00:00	54.6%	58.1%	82.9%	78.8%	76.9%
2026-09-26T07:43:04+00:00	62.2%	58.1%	82.9%	72.0%	76.9%
2026-09-26T08:28:40+00:00	62.2%	58.1%	82.9%	72.0%	76.9%
2026-09-26T09:13:46+00:00	62.2%	58.1%	82.9%	72.0%	76.9%
2026-09-26T09:58:52+00:00	62.2%	58.1%	82.9%	72.0%	76.9%
2026-09-26T10:44:05+00:00	62.2%	58.1%	82.9%	72.0%	76.9%
2026-09-26T11:29:18+00:00	62.2%	65.7%	80.2%	72.0%	76.9%
2026-09-26T12:14:30+00:00	62.2%	65.7%	80.2%	72.0%	76.9%
2026-09-26T12:59:36+00:00	62.2%	65.7%	80.2%	72.0%	76.9%
2026-09-26T13:44:45+00:00	65.8%	65.7%	80.2%	72.0%	76.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	80%	73.5°F	3.5°F	2026-09-26 00:00	Pending
ICON	77%	73.1°F	3.5°F	2026-09-26 00:00	Pending
National Blend	76%	72.0°F	2.1°F	2026-09-26 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	72%	72.9°F	4.1°F	2026-09-26 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	66%	72.2°F	4.2°F	2026-09-26 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	66%	71.8°F	3.2°F	2026-09-26 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	71.0°F	3.4°F	2026-09-26 02:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260928-TMAX-GE71
Opened Sep 22 · 02:42 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 71°F · Mon Sep 28

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗