KMSP / Mon Sep 28 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST76%Sep 26 · 13:44 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

80%

77%

72%

66%

66%

Consensus

76%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 73.0¢Risks 36.48u

EPSNO 27.0¢Risks 13.52u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +13.52u · EPS −13.52u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	10.3%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	—	47.3%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	52.7%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	39.0%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	47.9%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	46.8%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	54.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	15.4%	—	—	—	—	46.7%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	—	—	—	32.4%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	34.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	24.5%	—	—	—	—	41.8%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	28.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	35.8%	—	1.0%	—	—	47.6%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	62.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	53.8%	—	—	—	—	44.4%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	45.5%	—	36.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	57.8%	—	82.4%	—	—	39.7%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	89.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	63.3%	0.2%	84.1%	—	—	49.3%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	43.8%	—	80.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	28.6%	36.9%	71.4%	6.9%	—	61.1%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	24.2%	—	88.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	38.5%	72.2%	77.4%	69.6%	—	59.4%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	86.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	15.5%	38.7%	80.0%	50.8%	—	64.2%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	83.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	39.0%	46.0%	90.7%	71.9%	—	50.0%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	46.7%	—	56.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	34.5%	68.5%	87.5%	71.4%	—	45.8%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	26.7%	14.7%	64.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	35.4%	43.0%	80.4%	73.8%	—	54.4%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	27.1%	35.9%	82.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	16.6%	34.7%	89.0%	46.3%	—	46.3%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	18.4%	26.9%	91.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	21.8%	94.1%	39.4%	—	51.0%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	19.0%	44.0%	83.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	22.7%	74.1%	90.1%	55.1%	—	60.2%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	16.9%	81.7%	92.8%	—	—	62.5%
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	23.0%	79.4%	95.5%	19.0%	—	60.8%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	25.8%	91.7%	97.8%	2.7%	—	69.5%
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	36.3%	77.6%	98.8%	37.4%	—	68.0%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	29.3%	90.8%	95.7%	57.2%	—	64.1%
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	27.6%	87.0%	98.3%	58.7%	86.3%	61.1%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	41.0%	78.1%	98.6%	74.1%	—	75.2%
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	33.1%	65.7%	78.0%	68.1%	0.0%	63.2%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	13.2%	62.3%	85.3%	65.0%	—	33.8%
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	12.2%	55.8%	82.8%	34.5%	48.5%	60.1%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	14.4%	54.5%	85.6%	28.5%	—	57.5%
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	19.2%	71.0%	89.8%	31.7%	51.6%	54.7%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	20.3%	40.2%	87.7%	14.1%	—	54.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	80%	73.5°F	3.5°F	2026-09-26 00:00	Pending
ICON	77%	73.1°F	3.5°F	2026-09-26 00:00	Pending
National Blend	76%	72.0°F	2.1°F	2026-09-26 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	72%	72.9°F	4.1°F	2026-09-26 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	66%	72.2°F	4.2°F	2026-09-26 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	66%	71.8°F	3.2°F	2026-09-26 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	71.0°F	3.4°F	2026-09-26 02:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260928-TMAX-GE71
Opened Sep 22 · 02:42 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 71°F · Mon Sep 28

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗