KMSP / Mon Sep 28 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 72°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST58%Sep 22 · 01:57 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

83%

69%

55%

45%

41%

Consensus

58%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 61.9¢Risks 61.95u

EPSNO 38.1¢Risks 38.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +38.05u · EPS −38.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-22T01:57:13+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-21T10:52:14+00:00	81.1%	50.0%	69.0%	58.2%	8.0%
2026-09-21T11:37:54+00:00	81.1%	45.1%	69.0%	58.2%	8.0%
2026-09-21T12:23:02+00:00	81.1%	45.1%	69.0%	58.2%	8.0%
2026-09-21T13:08:07+00:00	81.1%	45.1%	69.0%	58.2%	8.0%
2026-09-21T13:53:13+00:00	65.4%	45.1%	69.0%	58.2%	8.0%
2026-09-21T14:40:19+00:00	65.4%	45.1%	69.0%	58.2%	8.0%
2026-09-21T15:25:32+00:00	65.4%	44.2%	69.0%	58.2%	8.0%
2026-09-21T16:10:47+00:00	65.4%	44.2%	69.0%	58.2%	8.0%
2026-09-21T16:55:52+00:00	65.4%	44.2%	69.0%	58.2%	54.9%
2026-09-21T17:40:58+00:00	65.4%	44.2%	69.0%	58.2%	54.9%
2026-09-21T18:26:02+00:00	65.4%	44.2%	69.0%	58.2%	54.9%
2026-09-21T19:11:12+00:00	65.4%	44.2%	69.0%	58.2%	54.9%
2026-09-21T19:56:20+00:00	49.3%	44.2%	69.0%	82.6%	54.9%
2026-09-21T20:41:31+00:00	49.3%	44.2%	69.0%	82.6%	54.9%
2026-09-21T21:26:37+00:00	49.3%	44.2%	69.0%	82.6%	54.9%
2026-09-21T22:11:43+00:00	49.3%	44.2%	69.0%	82.6%	54.9%
2026-09-21T22:56:48+00:00	49.3%	44.2%	69.0%	82.6%	54.9%
2026-09-21T23:41:53+00:00	49.3%	41.3%	69.0%	82.6%	54.9%
2026-09-22T00:26:58+00:00	49.3%	41.3%	69.0%	82.6%	54.9%
2026-09-22T01:12:07+00:00	49.3%	41.3%	69.0%	82.6%	54.9%
2026-09-22T01:57:13+00:00	45.0%	41.3%	69.0%	82.6%	54.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	83%	77.4°F	6.3°F	2026-09-21 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	69%	74.4°F	5.9°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
ICON	55%	72.7°F	9.8°F	2026-09-21 12:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	72.0°F	4.4°F	2026-09-21 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	45%	70.8°F	5.5°F	2026-09-21 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	41%	70.6°F	4.1°F	2026-09-21 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 72°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260928-TMAX-GE72
Opened Sep 21 · 10:52 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 72°F · Mon Sep 28

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗