KMSP / Mon Sep 28 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 72°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST58%Sep 22 · 01:57 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

83%

69%

55%

45%

41%

Consensus

58%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 61.9¢Risks 61.95u

EPSNO 38.1¢Risks 38.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +38.05u · EPS −38.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	8.1%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	38.5%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	45.2%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	47.3%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	42.6%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	41.3%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	10.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	27.5%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	29.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	36.2%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	30.2%	—	0.7%	—	—	41.6%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	56.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	47.5%	—	—	—	—	38.2%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	39.3%	—	30.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	51.3%	—	77.9%	—	—	33.6%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	48.7%	—	86.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	56.7%	0.1%	79.7%	—	—	42.6%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	37.1%	—	75.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	23.0%	30.5%	65.1%	4.9%	—	54.2%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	85.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	31.7%	65.7%	71.5%	62.9%	—	52.2%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	82.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	11.4%	31.6%	74.2%	43.2%	—	56.8%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	78.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	31.6%	38.2%	86.9%	64.8%	—	42.1%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	38.7%	—	48.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	27.2%	60.7%	82.7%	63.9%	—	37.7%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	20.1%	10.3%	56.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	27.7%	34.6%	73.8%	66.2%	—	45.6%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	20.2%	27.9%	75.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	11.5%	26.6%	84.0%	37.3%	—	37.3%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	12.7%	19.6%	86.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	10.7%	15.3%	90.6%	30.4%	—	41.3%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	13.0%	34.4%	76.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	15.7%	65.1%	84.9%	44.9%	—	50.0%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	11.1%	73.8%	88.4%	—	—	52.1%
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	15.5%	70.8%	92.3%	12.5%	—	50.0%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	17.5%	86.5%	95.8%	1.4%	—	59.0%
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	26.0%	68.0%	97.5%	27.0%	—	57.0%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	19.9%	84.8%	92.2%	45.2%	—	52.4%
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	18.2%	79.2%	96.5%	46.3%	78.3%	48.8%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	29.1%	67.5%	97.0%	62.7%	—	63.9%
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	22.0%	52.7%	66.9%	55.4%	0.0%	50.0%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	7.1%	48.6%	75.8%	51.4%	—	22.1%
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	6.3%	41.4%	72.0%	22.2%	34.5%	45.7%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	7.5%	39.5%	75.2%	17.2%	—	42.5%
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	10.2%	56.3%	80.8%	19.2%	36.1%	39.1%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	10.7%	25.4%	77.2%	6.8%	—	38.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	83%	77.4°F	6.3°F	2026-09-21 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	69%	74.4°F	5.9°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
ICON	55%	72.7°F	9.8°F	2026-09-21 12:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	72.0°F	4.4°F	2026-09-21 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	45%	70.8°F	5.5°F	2026-09-21 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	41%	70.6°F	4.1°F	2026-09-21 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 72°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260928-TMAX-GE72
Opened Sep 21 · 10:52 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 72°F · Mon Sep 28

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗