KMSP / Mon Sep 28 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST45%Sep 28 · 07:14 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

60%

49%

38%

37%

13%

Consensus

45%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 36.9¢Risks 36.85u

ICONNO 63.1¢Risks 63.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +63.15u · ICON −63.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-28T07:14:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-22T15:32:24+00:00	38.2%	50.8%	62.7%	70.6%	73.9%
2026-09-22T16:17:41+00:00	38.2%	50.8%	62.7%	70.6%	73.9%
2026-09-22T17:02:46+00:00	38.2%	50.8%	62.7%	70.6%	48.3%
2026-09-22T17:47:52+00:00	38.2%	50.8%	62.7%	70.6%	48.3%
2026-09-22T18:32:57+00:00	38.2%	50.8%	62.7%	70.6%	48.3%
2026-09-22T19:18:06+00:00	38.2%	50.8%	62.7%	70.6%	48.3%
2026-09-22T20:03:11+00:00	28.7%	50.8%	62.7%	70.6%	48.3%
2026-09-22T20:48:16+00:00	28.7%	50.8%	62.7%	70.6%	48.3%
2026-09-22T21:33:24+00:00	28.7%	50.8%	62.7%	70.6%	48.3%
2026-09-22T22:18:32+00:00	28.7%	50.8%	62.7%	70.6%	48.3%
2026-09-22T23:03:39+00:00	28.7%	50.8%	62.7%	70.6%	48.3%
2026-09-22T23:48:45+00:00	28.6%	47.5%	63.0%	70.6%	48.3%
2026-09-23T00:33:51+00:00	28.6%	47.5%	63.0%	70.6%	48.3%
2026-09-23T01:18:59+00:00	28.6%	47.5%	63.0%	70.6%	48.3%
2026-09-23T02:04:05+00:00	26.1%	47.5%	63.0%	70.6%	48.3%
2026-09-23T02:49:19+00:00	26.1%	47.5%	63.0%	70.6%	48.3%
2026-09-23T03:34:37+00:00	26.1%	47.5%	63.0%	70.6%	48.3%
2026-09-23T04:19:44+00:00	26.1%	47.5%	63.0%	70.6%	48.3%
2026-09-23T05:04:54+00:00	26.1%	47.5%	63.0%	76.5%	48.6%
2026-09-23T05:50:05+00:00	26.1%	47.5%	63.0%	76.5%	48.6%
2026-09-23T06:35:10+00:00	26.1%	47.5%	63.0%	76.5%	48.6%
2026-09-23T07:20:18+00:00	26.1%	47.5%	63.0%	76.5%	48.6%
2026-09-23T08:05:44+00:00	56.4%	47.5%	63.0%	39.2%	48.6%
2026-09-23T08:51:12+00:00	56.4%	47.5%	63.0%	39.2%	48.6%
2026-09-23T09:36:17+00:00	56.4%	47.5%	63.0%	39.2%	48.6%
2026-09-23T10:21:21+00:00	56.4%	47.5%	63.0%	39.2%	48.6%
2026-09-23T11:06:29+00:00	56.4%	35.0%	69.2%	39.2%	48.6%
2026-09-23T11:51:39+00:00	56.4%	35.0%	69.2%	39.2%	48.6%
2026-09-23T12:36:44+00:00	56.4%	35.0%	69.2%	39.2%	48.6%
2026-09-23T13:21:49+00:00	56.4%	35.0%	69.2%	39.2%	48.6%
2026-09-23T14:09:06+00:00	62.7%	35.0%	69.1%	39.2%	48.0%
2026-09-23T14:54:19+00:00	62.7%	35.0%	69.1%	39.2%	48.0%
2026-09-23T15:39:31+00:00	62.7%	35.0%	69.1%	39.2%	48.0%
2026-09-23T16:24:38+00:00	62.7%	35.0%	69.1%	39.2%	48.0%
2026-09-23T17:09:48+00:00	62.7%	35.0%	71.6%	39.2%	66.5%
2026-09-23T17:54:55+00:00	62.7%	35.0%	71.6%	39.2%	66.5%
2026-09-23T18:40:01+00:00	62.7%	35.0%	71.6%	39.2%	66.5%
2026-09-23T19:25:12+00:00	51.6%	35.0%	71.6%	39.8%	66.5%
2026-09-23T20:10:19+00:00	51.6%	35.0%	71.6%	39.8%	66.5%
2026-09-23T20:55:25+00:00	51.6%	35.0%	71.6%	39.8%	66.5%
2026-09-23T21:40:31+00:00	51.6%	35.0%	71.6%	39.8%	66.5%
2026-09-23T22:25:37+00:00	51.6%	35.0%	71.6%	39.8%	66.5%
2026-09-23T23:10:43+00:00	51.6%	36.0%	70.0%	39.8%	66.5%
2026-09-23T23:55:49+00:00	51.6%	36.0%	70.0%	39.8%	66.5%
2026-09-24T00:40:55+00:00	51.6%	36.0%	70.0%	39.8%	66.5%
2026-09-24T01:26:06+00:00	51.6%	36.0%	70.0%	39.8%	66.5%
2026-09-24T02:11:12+00:00	43.6%	36.0%	70.0%	39.8%	66.5%
2026-09-26T14:32:10+00:00	47.1%	41.4%	61.2%	53.9%	56.7%
2026-09-26T15:17:30+00:00	47.1%	41.4%	61.2%	53.9%	56.7%
2026-09-26T16:02:36+00:00	47.1%	41.4%	61.2%	53.9%	56.7%
2026-09-26T16:47:43+00:00	47.1%	41.4%	61.2%	53.9%	52.3%
2026-09-26T17:32:51+00:00	47.1%	41.4%	61.2%	53.9%	52.3%
2026-09-26T18:18:00+00:00	47.1%	41.4%	61.2%	53.9%	52.3%
2026-09-26T19:03:08+00:00	47.1%	41.4%	61.2%	53.9%	52.3%
2026-09-26T19:48:19+00:00	57.6%	41.4%	61.2%	59.6%	52.3%
2026-09-26T20:33:27+00:00	57.6%	41.4%	61.2%	59.6%	52.3%
2026-09-26T21:18:33+00:00	57.6%	41.4%	61.2%	59.6%	52.3%
2026-09-26T22:03:38+00:00	57.6%	41.4%	61.2%	59.6%	52.3%
2026-09-26T22:48:46+00:00	57.6%	41.4%	61.2%	59.6%	52.3%
2026-09-26T23:33:57+00:00	57.6%	42.6%	67.5%	59.6%	52.3%
2026-09-27T00:19:03+00:00	57.6%	42.6%	67.5%	59.6%	52.3%
2026-09-27T01:04:12+00:00	57.6%	42.6%	67.5%	59.6%	52.3%
2026-09-27T01:49:26+00:00	51.9%	42.6%	67.5%	59.6%	52.3%
2026-09-27T02:34:32+00:00	51.9%	42.6%	67.5%	59.6%	52.3%
2026-09-27T03:19:50+00:00	51.9%	42.6%	67.5%	59.6%	52.3%
2026-09-27T04:05:14+00:00	51.9%	42.6%	67.5%	59.6%	52.3%
2026-09-27T04:50:20+00:00	51.9%	42.6%	67.5%	59.6%	53.4%
2026-09-27T05:35:29+00:00	51.9%	42.6%	63.3%	59.6%	53.4%
2026-09-27T06:20:39+00:00	51.9%	42.6%	63.3%	59.6%	53.4%
2026-09-27T07:05:44+00:00	51.9%	42.6%	63.3%	59.6%	53.4%
2026-09-27T07:51:16+00:00	51.0%	42.6%	63.3%	54.3%	53.4%
2026-09-27T08:36:53+00:00	51.0%	42.6%	63.3%	54.3%	53.4%
2026-09-27T09:21:59+00:00	51.0%	42.6%	63.3%	54.3%	53.4%
2026-09-27T10:07:04+00:00	51.0%	42.6%	63.3%	54.3%	53.4%
2026-09-27T10:52:10+00:00	51.0%	42.6%	63.3%	54.3%	53.4%
2026-09-27T11:37:18+00:00	51.0%	41.3%	62.6%	54.3%	53.4%
2026-09-27T12:22:26+00:00	51.0%	41.3%	62.6%	54.3%	53.4%
2026-09-27T13:07:33+00:00	51.0%	41.3%	62.6%	54.3%	53.4%
2026-09-27T13:52:43+00:00	62.6%	41.3%	62.6%	54.3%	53.4%
2026-09-28T03:27:39+00:00	38.4%	36.9%	64.8%	48.9%	27.6%
2026-09-28T04:13:29+00:00	38.4%	36.9%	64.8%	48.9%	27.6%
2026-09-28T04:58:35+00:00	38.4%	36.9%	64.8%	48.9%	13.3%
2026-09-28T05:43:45+00:00	38.4%	36.9%	60.4%	48.9%	13.3%
2026-09-28T06:28:55+00:00	38.4%	36.9%	60.4%	48.9%	13.3%
2026-09-28T07:14:00+00:00	38.4%	36.9%	60.4%	48.9%	13.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	61%	73.1°F	2.2°F	2026-09-28 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	60%	73.4°F	3.4°F	2026-09-27 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	73.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-28 02:00	Pending
IFS HRES	49%	72.4°F	3.7°F	2026-09-27 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	38%	71.3°F	4.1°F	2026-09-27 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	37%	71.4°F	3.3°F	2026-09-27 00:00	Pending
ICON	13%	68.7°F	3.4°F	2026-09-28 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260928-TMAX-GE73
Opened Sep 22 · 15:32 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 73°F · Mon Sep 28

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗