KMSP / Mon Sep 28 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST45%Sep 28 · 07:14 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

60%

49%

38%

37%

13%

Consensus

45%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 36.9¢Risks 36.85u

ICONNO 63.1¢Risks 63.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +63.15u · ICON −63.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	6.3%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	40.0%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	37.5%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	36.4%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	44.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	9.7%	—	—	—	—	36.0%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	11.6%	—	—	—	—	23.0%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	30.9%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	0.4%	—	—	35.8%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	50.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	—	—	—	—	32.4%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	33.3%	—	25.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	44.8%	—	72.7%	—	—	27.8%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	82.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	0.1%	74.6%	—	—	36.1%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	30.8%	—	69.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	18.0%	24.6%	58.4%	3.3%	—	47.2%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	14.4%	—	80.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	25.4%	58.7%	65.0%	55.8%	—	44.9%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	13.5%	—	76.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	8.1%	25.1%	67.7%	35.8%	—	49.2%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	72.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	24.8%	30.9%	82.1%	57.1%	—	34.5%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	31.2%	—	40.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	20.7%	52.5%	76.8%	55.8%	—	30.0%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	14.7%	7.0%	47.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	20.8%	26.9%	66.2%	57.8%	—	37.1%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	14.5%	20.9%	68.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	7.6%	19.6%	77.7%	28.9%	—	28.9%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	8.4%	13.7%	81.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	6.8%	10.2%	85.8%	22.5%	—	32.1%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	8.4%	25.7%	68.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	10.3%	55.1%	78.1%	34.9%	—	39.8%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	6.8%	64.5%	82.4%	—	—	41.6%
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	9.9%	60.8%	87.5%	7.7%	—	39.2%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	11.2%	79.4%	92.5%	0.6%	—	47.8%
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	17.5%	57.0%	95.2%	18.3%	—	45.4%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	12.6%	76.6%	86.8%	33.6%	—	40.5%
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	11.2%	69.2%	93.3%	34.2%	68.0%	36.5%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	19.1%	55.1%	94.0%	50.0%	—	51.3%
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	39.4%	54.0%	42.0%	0.0%	36.8%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	3.5%	35.0%	63.7%	37.7%	—	13.2%
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	2.9%	28.0%	58.6%	13.0%	22.2%	31.8%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	3.4%	26.0%	61.9%	9.2%	—	28.5%
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	4.8%	40.6%	68.3%	10.2%	22.6%	25.0%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	4.9%	14.1%	63.0%	2.8%	—	24.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	61%	73.1°F	2.2°F	2026-09-28 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	60%	73.4°F	3.4°F	2026-09-27 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	73.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-28 02:00	Pending
IFS HRES	49%	72.4°F	3.7°F	2026-09-27 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	38%	71.3°F	4.1°F	2026-09-27 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	37%	71.4°F	3.3°F	2026-09-27 00:00	Pending
ICON	13%	68.7°F	3.4°F	2026-09-28 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260928-TMAX-GE73
Opened Sep 22 · 15:32 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 73°F · Mon Sep 28

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗