KMSP / Tue Sep 29 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST89%Sep 25 · 17:23 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

98%

89%

76%

56%

Consensus

89%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 77.0¢Risks 77.05u

ICONNO 23.0¢Risks 22.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +22.95u · ICON −22.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-25T17:23:31+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-23T15:39:31+00:00	68.0%	88.1%	67.9%	53.6%	72.4%
2026-09-23T16:24:38+00:00	68.0%	88.1%	67.9%	53.6%	72.4%
2026-09-23T17:09:48+00:00	68.0%	88.1%	88.8%	53.6%	63.0%
2026-09-23T17:54:55+00:00	68.0%	88.1%	88.8%	53.6%	63.0%
2026-09-23T18:40:01+00:00	68.0%	88.1%	88.8%	53.6%	63.0%
2026-09-23T19:25:12+00:00	67.4%	88.1%	88.8%	59.5%	63.0%
2026-09-23T20:10:19+00:00	67.4%	88.1%	88.8%	59.5%	63.0%
2026-09-23T20:55:25+00:00	67.4%	88.1%	88.8%	59.5%	63.0%
2026-09-23T21:40:31+00:00	67.4%	88.1%	88.8%	59.5%	63.0%
2026-09-23T22:25:37+00:00	67.4%	88.1%	88.8%	59.5%	63.0%
2026-09-23T23:10:43+00:00	67.4%	88.5%	91.4%	59.5%	63.0%
2026-09-23T23:55:49+00:00	67.4%	88.5%	91.4%	59.5%	63.0%
2026-09-24T00:40:55+00:00	67.4%	88.5%	91.4%	59.5%	63.0%
2026-09-24T01:26:06+00:00	67.4%	88.5%	91.4%	59.5%	63.0%
2026-09-24T02:11:12+00:00	77.4%	88.5%	91.4%	59.5%	63.0%
2026-09-24T02:56:32+00:00	77.4%	88.5%	91.4%	59.5%	63.0%
2026-09-24T03:41:54+00:00	77.4%	88.5%	91.4%	59.5%	63.0%
2026-09-24T04:27:00+00:00	77.4%	88.5%	91.4%	59.5%	63.0%
2026-09-24T05:12:06+00:00	77.4%	88.5%	94.1%	59.5%	69.6%
2026-09-24T05:57:15+00:00	77.4%	88.5%	94.1%	59.5%	69.6%
2026-09-24T06:42:26+00:00	77.4%	88.5%	94.1%	59.5%	69.6%
2026-09-24T07:27:54+00:00	77.4%	88.5%	94.1%	59.5%	69.6%
2026-09-24T08:13:26+00:00	79.0%	88.5%	94.1%	64.7%	69.6%
2026-09-24T08:58:37+00:00	79.0%	88.5%	94.1%	64.7%	69.6%
2026-09-24T09:43:42+00:00	79.0%	88.5%	94.1%	64.7%	69.6%
2026-09-24T10:28:47+00:00	79.0%	88.5%	94.1%	64.7%	69.6%
2026-09-24T11:13:52+00:00	79.0%	96.3%	94.5%	64.7%	69.6%
2026-09-24T11:58:58+00:00	79.0%	96.3%	94.5%	64.7%	69.6%
2026-09-24T12:44:03+00:00	79.0%	96.3%	94.5%	64.7%	69.6%
2026-09-24T13:29:18+00:00	79.0%	96.3%	94.5%	64.7%	69.6%
2026-09-24T14:16:42+00:00	89.1%	96.3%	94.5%	64.7%	69.6%
2026-09-24T15:01:54+00:00	89.1%	96.3%	94.5%	64.7%	69.6%
2026-09-24T15:47:18+00:00	89.1%	96.3%	94.5%	64.7%	69.6%
2026-09-24T16:32:28+00:00	89.1%	96.3%	94.5%	64.7%	69.6%
2026-09-24T17:17:33+00:00	89.1%	96.3%	93.9%	64.7%	69.6%
2026-09-24T18:02:39+00:00	89.1%	96.3%	93.9%	64.7%	69.6%
2026-09-24T18:47:44+00:00	89.1%	96.3%	93.9%	64.7%	69.6%
2026-09-24T19:32:54+00:00	91.2%	96.3%	93.9%	64.7%	73.1%
2026-09-24T20:18:02+00:00	91.2%	96.3%	93.9%	64.7%	73.1%
2026-09-24T21:03:07+00:00	91.2%	96.3%	93.9%	64.7%	73.1%
2026-09-24T21:48:12+00:00	91.2%	96.3%	93.9%	64.7%	73.1%
2026-09-24T22:33:18+00:00	91.2%	96.3%	93.9%	89.2%	73.1%
2026-09-24T23:18:25+00:00	91.2%	97.0%	97.3%	89.2%	73.1%
2026-09-25T00:03:30+00:00	91.2%	97.0%	97.3%	89.2%	73.1%
2026-09-25T00:48:44+00:00	91.2%	97.0%	97.3%	89.2%	73.1%
2026-09-25T01:33:52+00:00	84.9%	97.0%	97.3%	89.2%	73.1%
2026-09-25T02:18:59+00:00	84.9%	97.0%	97.3%	89.2%	73.1%
2026-09-25T03:04:20+00:00	84.9%	97.0%	97.3%	89.2%	73.1%
2026-09-25T03:49:45+00:00	84.9%	97.0%	97.3%	89.2%	73.1%
2026-09-25T04:34:51+00:00	84.9%	97.0%	97.3%	89.2%	80.1%
2026-09-25T05:19:59+00:00	84.9%	97.0%	97.2%	89.2%	80.1%
2026-09-25T06:05:05+00:00	84.9%	97.0%	97.2%	89.2%	80.1%
2026-09-25T06:50:10+00:00	84.9%	97.0%	97.2%	89.2%	80.1%
2026-09-25T07:35:18+00:00	87.8%	97.0%	97.2%	89.2%	80.1%
2026-09-25T08:20:24+00:00	87.8%	97.0%	97.2%	89.2%	80.1%
2026-09-25T09:05:30+00:00	87.8%	97.0%	97.2%	89.2%	80.1%
2026-09-25T09:50:34+00:00	87.8%	97.0%	97.2%	89.2%	80.1%
2026-09-25T10:35:40+00:00	87.8%	97.0%	97.2%	89.2%	80.1%
2026-09-25T11:20:47+00:00	87.8%	98.4%	97.2%	89.2%	80.1%
2026-09-25T12:05:53+00:00	87.8%	98.4%	97.2%	89.2%	80.1%
2026-09-25T12:50:58+00:00	87.8%	98.4%	97.2%	89.2%	80.1%
2026-09-25T13:36:04+00:00	75.5%	98.4%	97.2%	89.2%	80.1%
2026-09-25T14:23:06+00:00	75.5%	98.4%	97.2%	89.2%	80.1%
2026-09-25T15:08:12+00:00	75.5%	98.1%	97.2%	89.2%	80.1%
2026-09-25T15:53:17+00:00	75.5%	98.1%	97.2%	89.2%	80.1%
2026-09-25T16:38:23+00:00	75.5%	98.1%	97.2%	89.2%	55.9%
2026-09-25T17:23:31+00:00	75.5%	98.1%	98.2%	89.2%	55.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	98%	73.8°F	3.9°F	2026-09-25 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	98%	71.5°F	2.9°F	2026-09-25 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	89%	72.7°F	5.8°F	2026-09-24 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	76%	68.7°F	4.6°F	2026-09-25 06:00	Pending
National Blend	71%	68.0°F	4.4°F	2026-09-25 06:00	Pending
ICON	56%	66.2°F	4.7°F	2026-09-25 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	66.0°F	4.5°F	2026-09-25 02:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260929-TMAX-GE66
Opened Sep 23 · 15:39 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 66°F · Tue Sep 29

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗