KMSP / Tue Sep 29 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST89%Sep 25 · 17:23 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

98%

89%

76%

56%

Consensus

89%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 77.0¢Risks 77.05u

ICONNO 23.0¢Risks 22.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +22.95u · ICON −22.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	68.0%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	93.4%	—	—	—	—	64.1%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	72.1%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	89.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	—	—	—	62.1%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	72.6%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	82.1%	—	—	—	—	71.2%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	65.5%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	83.2%	—	—	—	—	54.3%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	80.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	64.0%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	79.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	54.0%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	24.5%	—	—	—	—	50.6%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	21.4%	—	1.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	41.6%	—	—	59.0%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	98.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	38.2%	—	—	—	—	70.9%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	60.7%	—	86.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	85.6%	—	—	72.7%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	21.7%	—	73.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	73.5%	52.7%	52.7%	—	—	71.2%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	62.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	39.6%	33.6%	98.0%	1.3%	—	63.1%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	30.7%	—	44.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	23.7%	57.3%	52.9%	92.4%	—	48.5%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	41.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	37.2%	43.9%	37.2%	77.2%	—	51.5%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	34.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	56.4%	24.8%	39.7%	—	57.9%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	68.1%	—	41.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	70.7%	61.5%	55.0%	85.7%	—	74.2%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	58.5%	68.9%	97.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	59.6%	72.4%	87.8%	73.1%	—	83.3%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	40.2%	52.7%	64.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	39.1%	44.5%	12.4%	96.4%	—	81.6%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	40.6%	69.9%	14.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	56.8%	70.4%	81.7%	96.2%	—	71.3%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	48.0%	55.0%	33.5%	—	—	33.5%
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	47.9%	63.1%	96.2%	66.0%	—	63.1%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	33.5%	97.2%	46.8%	—	—	60.5%
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	39.2%	88.6%	58.7%	86.9%	—	71.8%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	32.6%	70.4%	78.6%	60.0%	—	60.0%
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	45.4%	44.2%	61.5%	60.4%	—	69.0%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	39.3%	75.6%	78.4%	57.2%	—	54.8%
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	37.7%	58.7%	79.2%	56.2%	72.4%	58.7%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	36.1%	55.1%	76.2%	57.7%	—	60.2%
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	38.1%	65.7%	63.2%	59.3%	78.0%	59.3%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	48.6%	45.8%	51.4%	48.6%	—	56.9%
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	55.8%	75.5%	80.9%	69.5%	84.6%	73.2%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	70.2%	72.8%	86.4%	61.9%	—	84.7%
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	54.7%	56.3%	90.4%	60.9%	93.9%	56.3%
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	37.0%	28.1%	37.0%	59.8%	—	54.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	98%	73.8°F	3.9°F	2026-09-25 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	98%	71.5°F	2.9°F	2026-09-25 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	89%	72.7°F	5.8°F	2026-09-24 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	76%	68.7°F	4.6°F	2026-09-25 06:00	Pending
National Blend	71%	68.0°F	4.4°F	2026-09-25 06:00	Pending
ICON	56%	66.2°F	4.7°F	2026-09-25 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	66.0°F	4.5°F	2026-09-25 02:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260929-TMAX-GE66
Opened Sep 23 · 15:39 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 66°F · Tue Sep 29

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗