KMSP / Tue Sep 29 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST71%Sep 29 · 07:22 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

97%

87%

72%

51%

25%

Consensus

71%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 61.2¢Risks 61.20u

ICONNO 38.8¢Risks 38.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +38.80u · ICON −38.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-29T07:22:36+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-22T07:59:13+00:00	84.8%	78.4%	87.0%	87.4%	60.1%
2026-09-22T08:44:41+00:00	84.8%	78.4%	87.0%	87.4%	60.1%
2026-09-22T09:29:46+00:00	84.8%	78.4%	87.0%	87.4%	60.1%
2026-09-22T10:14:52+00:00	84.8%	78.4%	87.0%	87.4%	60.1%
2026-09-22T11:00:02+00:00	84.8%	81.3%	87.0%	87.4%	60.1%
2026-09-22T11:45:11+00:00	84.8%	81.3%	87.0%	87.4%	60.1%
2026-09-22T12:30:16+00:00	84.8%	81.3%	87.0%	87.4%	60.1%
2026-09-22T13:15:21+00:00	84.8%	81.3%	87.0%	87.4%	60.1%
2026-09-22T14:00:29+00:00	70.6%	81.3%	87.0%	87.4%	60.1%
2026-09-22T14:47:14+00:00	70.5%	81.3%	86.9%	87.3%	60.1%
2026-09-22T15:32:25+00:00	70.5%	80.9%	86.9%	87.3%	60.1%
2026-09-22T16:17:41+00:00	70.5%	80.9%	86.9%	87.3%	60.1%
2026-09-22T17:02:46+00:00	70.5%	80.9%	86.9%	87.3%	48.8%
2026-09-22T17:47:52+00:00	70.5%	80.9%	86.9%	87.3%	48.8%
2026-09-22T18:32:57+00:00	70.5%	80.9%	86.9%	87.3%	48.8%
2026-09-22T19:18:06+00:00	70.5%	80.9%	86.9%	87.3%	48.8%
2026-09-22T20:03:11+00:00	56.4%	80.9%	86.9%	87.3%	48.8%
2026-09-22T20:48:16+00:00	56.4%	80.9%	86.9%	87.3%	48.8%
2026-09-22T21:33:24+00:00	56.4%	80.9%	86.9%	87.3%	48.8%
2026-09-22T22:18:32+00:00	56.4%	80.9%	86.9%	87.3%	48.8%
2026-09-22T23:03:39+00:00	56.4%	80.9%	86.9%	87.3%	48.8%
2026-09-22T23:48:45+00:00	56.4%	78.4%	74.7%	87.3%	48.8%
2026-09-23T00:33:51+00:00	56.4%	78.4%	74.7%	87.3%	48.8%
2026-09-23T01:18:59+00:00	56.4%	78.4%	74.7%	87.3%	48.8%
2026-09-23T02:04:05+00:00	45.7%	78.4%	74.7%	87.3%	48.8%
2026-09-23T02:49:19+00:00	45.7%	78.4%	74.7%	87.3%	48.8%
2026-09-23T03:34:37+00:00	45.7%	78.4%	74.7%	87.3%	48.8%
2026-09-23T04:19:44+00:00	45.7%	78.4%	74.7%	87.3%	48.8%
2026-09-23T05:04:54+00:00	45.7%	78.4%	74.7%	45.0%	62.6%
2026-09-23T05:50:05+00:00	45.7%	78.4%	74.7%	45.0%	62.6%
2026-09-23T06:35:10+00:00	45.7%	78.4%	74.7%	45.0%	62.6%
2026-09-23T07:20:18+00:00	45.7%	78.4%	74.7%	45.0%	62.6%
2026-09-23T08:05:44+00:00	36.8%	78.4%	74.7%	41.7%	62.6%
2026-09-23T08:51:12+00:00	36.8%	78.4%	74.7%	41.7%	62.6%
2026-09-23T09:36:17+00:00	36.8%	78.4%	74.7%	41.7%	62.6%
2026-09-23T10:21:21+00:00	36.8%	78.4%	74.7%	41.7%	62.6%
2026-09-23T11:06:29+00:00	36.8%	76.0%	50.9%	41.7%	62.6%
2026-09-23T11:51:39+00:00	36.8%	76.0%	50.9%	41.7%	62.6%
2026-09-23T12:36:44+00:00	36.8%	76.0%	50.9%	41.7%	62.6%
2026-09-23T13:21:49+00:00	36.8%	76.0%	50.9%	41.7%	62.6%
2026-09-23T14:09:07+00:00	53.7%	76.0%	50.9%	41.7%	61.9%
2026-09-23T14:54:19+00:00	53.7%	76.0%	50.9%	41.7%	61.9%
2026-09-25T18:08:50+00:00	60.2%	91.6%	94.5%	81.4%	39.2%
2026-09-25T18:54:07+00:00	60.2%	91.6%	94.5%	81.4%	39.2%
2026-09-25T19:39:41+00:00	60.2%	91.6%	94.5%	80.9%	39.2%
2026-09-25T20:25:17+00:00	60.2%	91.6%	94.5%	80.9%	39.2%
2026-09-25T21:10:23+00:00	60.2%	91.6%	94.5%	80.9%	39.2%
2026-09-25T21:55:28+00:00	60.2%	91.6%	94.5%	80.9%	39.2%
2026-09-25T22:40:33+00:00	60.2%	91.6%	94.5%	80.9%	39.2%
2026-09-25T23:25:38+00:00	60.2%	92.8%	95.1%	80.9%	39.2%
2026-09-26T00:10:44+00:00	60.2%	92.8%	95.1%	80.9%	39.2%
2026-09-26T00:55:54+00:00	60.2%	92.8%	95.1%	80.9%	39.2%
2026-09-26T01:41:05+00:00	61.9%	92.8%	95.1%	80.9%	39.2%
2026-09-26T02:26:25+00:00	61.9%	92.8%	95.1%	80.9%	39.2%
2026-09-29T04:21:27+00:00	71.5%	87.0%	98.4%	51.1%	27.5%
2026-09-29T05:06:55+00:00	71.5%	87.0%	97.3%	51.1%	25.1%
2026-09-29T05:52:03+00:00	71.5%	87.0%	97.3%	51.1%	25.1%
2026-09-29T06:37:10+00:00	71.5%	87.0%	97.3%	51.1%	25.1%
2026-09-29T07:22:36+00:00	71.5%	87.0%	97.3%	51.1%	25.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	97%	74.1°F	3.4°F	2026-09-28 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	87%	71.1°F	3.2°F	2026-09-28 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	72%	69.8°F	4.0°F	2026-09-28 18:00	Pending
National Blend	61%	68.1°F	2.2°F	2026-09-29 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	68.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-29 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	51%	67.6°F	3.7°F	2026-09-28 12:00	Pending
ICON	25%	65.2°F	3.4°F	2026-09-29 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260929-TMAX-GE68
Opened Sep 22 · 07:59 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 68°F · Tue Sep 29

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗