KMSP / Tue Sep 29 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST71%Sep 29 · 07:22 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

97%

87%

72%

51%

25%

Consensus

71%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 61.2¢Risks 61.20u

ICONNO 38.8¢Risks 38.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +38.80u · ICON −38.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—	10.5%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	72.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	57.9%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	89.2%	—	—	—	—	53.7%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	72.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	62.5%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	84.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	—	—	—	51.6%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	63.1%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	—	—	—	61.5%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	75.7%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	72.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	53.3%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	—	—	—	42.7%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	21.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	39.0%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	13.8%	—	0.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	12.7%	—	30.2%	—	—	47.0%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	96.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	59.3%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	48.1%	—	78.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	40.3%	—	76.9%	—	—	60.9%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	13.3%	—	61.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	61.3%	39.3%	39.3%	—	—	58.7%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	—	49.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	26.9%	21.9%	95.5%	0.5%	—	49.3%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	19.4%	—	30.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	14.0%	42.7%	38.5%	85.6%	—	34.3%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	27.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	23.9%	29.6%	23.9%	64.2%	—	36.5%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	34.8%	—	21.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	34.5%	40.5%	14.0%	25.5%	—	42.1%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	52.4%	—	27.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	55.0%	45.0%	38.5%	74.2%	—	59.1%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	52.6%	93.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	42.2%	56.1%	76.6%	57.0%	—	70.1%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	24.2%	35.1%	47.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	23.0%	27.4%	5.3%	91.0%	—	67.0%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	23.8%	51.9%	6.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	37.6%	51.9%	66.1%	90.2%	—	52.9%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	29.1%	35.3%	17.7%	—	—	17.7%
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	28.5%	42.8%	89.7%	45.9%	—	42.8%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	16.9%	91.6%	27.1%	—	—	39.5%
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	20.6%	74.5%	37.1%	71.8%	—	51.1%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	15.4%	48.9%	59.0%	37.8%	—	37.8%
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	24.2%	23.3%	38.5%	37.4%	—	46.5%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	19.1%	53.6%	57.2%	33.6%	—	31.4%
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	17.4%	34.2%	57.4%	32.0%	48.8%	34.2%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	15.8%	30.2%	52.6%	32.5%	—	34.9%
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	16.5%	39.4%	36.8%	33.1%	54.0%	33.1%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	23.2%	21.1%	25.3%	23.2%	—	30.0%
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	28.0%	48.5%	55.8%	41.4%	61.4%	45.7%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	41.0%	44.0%	63.3%	32.5%	—	60.5%
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	25.0%	26.3%	69.7%	30.3%	77.4%	26.3%
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	12.3%	7.9%	12.3%	28.1%	—	24.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	97%	74.1°F	3.4°F	2026-09-28 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	87%	71.1°F	3.2°F	2026-09-28 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	72%	69.8°F	4.0°F	2026-09-28 18:00	Pending
National Blend	61%	68.1°F	2.2°F	2026-09-29 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	68.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-29 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	51%	67.6°F	3.7°F	2026-09-28 12:00	Pending
ICON	25%	65.2°F	3.4°F	2026-09-29 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260929-TMAX-GE68
Opened Sep 22 · 07:59 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 68°F · Tue Sep 29

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗