KMSP / Tue Sep 29 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST44%Sep 29 · 03:36 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

90%

57%

43%

22%

Consensus

44%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 48.5¢Risks 48.50u

ICONNO 51.5¢Risks 51.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +51.50u · ICON −51.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-29T03:36:07+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-28T14:48:38+00:00	33.7%	57.5%	86.0%	15.5%	5.6%
2026-09-28T15:34:03+00:00	33.7%	57.5%	86.0%	15.5%	5.6%
2026-09-28T16:19:09+00:00	33.7%	57.5%	86.0%	15.5%	5.6%
2026-09-28T17:04:14+00:00	33.7%	57.5%	87.9%	15.5%	7.4%
2026-09-28T17:49:23+00:00	33.7%	57.5%	87.9%	15.5%	7.4%
2026-09-28T18:34:29+00:00	33.7%	57.5%	87.9%	15.5%	7.4%
2026-09-28T19:19:34+00:00	33.7%	57.5%	87.9%	15.5%	7.4%
2026-09-28T20:04:45+00:00	36.5%	57.5%	87.9%	21.9%	7.4%
2026-09-28T20:49:50+00:00	36.5%	57.5%	87.9%	21.9%	7.4%
2026-09-28T21:34:55+00:00	36.5%	57.5%	87.9%	21.9%	7.4%
2026-09-28T22:19:58+00:00	36.5%	57.5%	87.9%	21.9%	7.4%
2026-09-28T23:05:04+00:00	36.5%	57.5%	89.6%	21.9%	7.4%
2026-09-28T23:50:11+00:00	36.5%	57.5%	89.6%	21.9%	7.4%
2026-09-29T00:35:18+00:00	36.5%	57.5%	89.6%	21.9%	7.4%
2026-09-29T01:20:28+00:00	36.5%	57.5%	89.6%	21.9%	7.4%
2026-09-29T02:05:45+00:00	43.1%	57.5%	89.6%	21.9%	7.4%
2026-09-29T02:51:01+00:00	43.1%	57.5%	89.6%	21.9%	7.4%
2026-09-29T03:36:07+00:00	43.1%	57.5%	89.6%	21.9%	7.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	90%	74.8°F	3.4°F	2026-09-28 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	57%	71.1°F	3.2°F	2026-09-28 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	71.0°F	3.1°F	2026-09-28 14:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	70.0°F	3.3°F	2026-09-28 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	43%	69.8°F	4.0°F	2026-09-28 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	22%	67.6°F	3.7°F	2026-09-28 12:00	Pending
ICON	7%	65.4°F	3.5°F	2026-09-28 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260929-TMAX-GE71
Opened Sep 28 · 14:48 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 71°F · Tue Sep 29

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗