KMSP / Tue Sep 29 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST44%Sep 29 · 03:36 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

90%

57%

43%

22%

Consensus

44%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 48.5¢Risks 48.50u

ICONNO 51.5¢Risks 51.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +51.50u · ICON −51.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	4.9%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	—	—	—	38.0%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	46.8%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	72.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	47.3%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	45.8%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	39.5%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	61.6%	—	—	—	—	28.7%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	57.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	35.5%	—	—	—	—	37.0%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	55.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	10.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	6.2%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	16.5%	—	—	29.7%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	91.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	13.9%	—	—	—	—	40.7%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	29.8%	—	62.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	23.1%	—	59.7%	—	—	41.6%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	41.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	21.8%	21.8%	—	—	38.7%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	22.9%	—	29.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	12.6%	9.6%	87.8%	0.1%	—	29.2%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	8.0%	—	14.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	5.1%	23.2%	19.9%	69.6%	—	17.0%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	12.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	10.0%	13.4%	10.0%	41.7%	—	17.9%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	16.4%	—	8.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	20.1%	4.7%	10.4%	—	21.2%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	29.0%	—	11.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	30.8%	22.5%	17.8%	50.8%	—	34.5%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	19.6%	28.1%	81.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	19.6%	30.7%	52.6%	31.4%	—	44.8%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	8.5%	14.5%	22.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	7.6%	9.8%	1.0%	74.1%	—	40.0%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	7.7%	25.3%	1.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	14.7%	24.7%	37.6%	71.3%	—	25.5%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	9.6%	13.0%	4.7%	—	—	4.7%
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	9.0%	17.0%	68.8%	19.0%	—	17.0%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	4.0%	72.1%	8.0%	—	—	14.4%
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	5.0%	43.5%	12.5%	40.3%	—	21.3%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	3.1%	19.0%	26.7%	12.3%	—	12.3%
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	5.7%	5.4%	12.1%	11.6%	—	16.8%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	3.7%	20.8%	23.4%	9.2%	—	8.2%
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	3.0%	8.9%	22.7%	8.0%	16.6%	8.9%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	2.4%	6.8%	18.2%	7.7%	—	8.7%
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	2.4%	10.1%	8.9%	7.4%	18.2%	7.4%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	3.7%	3.2%	4.3%	3.7%	—	5.8%
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	4.7%	13.0%	17.2%	9.5%	21.2%	11.5%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	8.6%	9.9%	21.3%	5.6%	—	19.2%
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	3.1%	3.4%	25.0%	4.4%	33.1%	3.4%
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	0.4%	0.8%	3.4%	—	2.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	90%	74.8°F	3.4°F	2026-09-28 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	57%	71.1°F	3.2°F	2026-09-28 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	71.0°F	3.1°F	2026-09-28 14:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	70.0°F	3.3°F	2026-09-28 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	43%	69.8°F	4.0°F	2026-09-28 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	22%	67.6°F	3.7°F	2026-09-28 12:00	Pending
ICON	7%	65.4°F	3.5°F	2026-09-28 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260929-TMAX-GE71
Opened Sep 28 · 14:48 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 71°F · Tue Sep 29

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗