KMSP / Wed Sep 30 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST95%Sep 25 · 17:23 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

99%

94%

92%

90%

Consensus

95%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 94.8¢Risks 23.69u

AIFSNO 5.2¢Risks 1.31u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +1.31u · AIFS −1.31u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-25T17:23:31+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-23T11:06:29+00:00	78.5%	73.3%	69.8%	45.0%	30.1%
2026-09-23T11:51:39+00:00	78.5%	73.3%	69.8%	45.0%	30.1%
2026-09-23T12:36:44+00:00	78.5%	73.3%	69.8%	45.0%	30.1%
2026-09-23T13:21:49+00:00	78.5%	73.3%	69.8%	45.0%	30.1%
2026-09-23T14:09:07+00:00	88.6%	73.3%	69.8%	45.0%	29.8%
2026-09-23T14:54:19+00:00	88.6%	73.3%	69.8%	45.0%	29.8%
2026-09-23T15:39:31+00:00	88.6%	73.3%	69.8%	45.0%	29.8%
2026-09-23T16:24:38+00:00	88.6%	73.3%	69.8%	45.0%	29.8%
2026-09-23T17:09:48+00:00	88.6%	73.3%	90.4%	45.0%	61.2%
2026-09-23T17:54:55+00:00	88.6%	73.3%	90.4%	45.0%	61.2%
2026-09-23T18:40:01+00:00	88.6%	73.3%	90.4%	45.0%	61.2%
2026-09-23T19:25:12+00:00	89.9%	73.3%	90.4%	34.1%	61.2%
2026-09-23T20:10:19+00:00	89.9%	73.3%	90.4%	34.1%	61.2%
2026-09-23T20:55:25+00:00	89.9%	73.3%	90.4%	34.1%	61.2%
2026-09-23T21:40:31+00:00	89.9%	73.3%	90.4%	34.1%	61.2%
2026-09-23T22:25:37+00:00	89.9%	73.3%	90.4%	34.1%	61.2%
2026-09-23T23:10:43+00:00	89.9%	74.0%	91.1%	34.1%	61.2%
2026-09-23T23:55:49+00:00	89.9%	74.0%	91.1%	34.1%	61.2%
2026-09-24T00:40:55+00:00	89.9%	74.0%	91.1%	34.1%	61.2%
2026-09-24T01:26:06+00:00	89.9%	74.0%	91.1%	34.1%	61.2%
2026-09-24T02:11:12+00:00	96.4%	74.0%	91.1%	34.1%	61.2%
2026-09-24T02:56:32+00:00	96.4%	74.0%	91.1%	34.1%	61.2%
2026-09-24T03:41:54+00:00	96.4%	74.0%	91.1%	34.1%	61.2%
2026-09-24T04:27:00+00:00	96.4%	74.0%	91.1%	34.1%	61.2%
2026-09-24T05:12:06+00:00	96.4%	74.0%	95.1%	34.1%	77.0%
2026-09-24T05:57:15+00:00	96.4%	74.0%	95.1%	34.1%	77.0%
2026-09-24T06:42:26+00:00	96.4%	74.0%	95.1%	34.1%	77.0%
2026-09-24T07:27:54+00:00	96.4%	74.0%	95.1%	34.1%	77.0%
2026-09-24T08:13:26+00:00	87.4%	74.0%	95.1%	91.0%	77.0%
2026-09-24T08:58:37+00:00	87.4%	74.0%	95.1%	91.0%	77.0%
2026-09-24T09:43:42+00:00	87.4%	74.0%	95.1%	91.0%	77.0%
2026-09-24T10:28:47+00:00	87.4%	74.0%	95.1%	91.0%	77.0%
2026-09-24T11:13:52+00:00	87.4%	79.9%	94.9%	91.0%	77.0%
2026-09-24T11:58:58+00:00	87.4%	79.9%	94.9%	91.0%	77.0%
2026-09-24T12:44:03+00:00	87.4%	79.9%	94.9%	91.0%	77.0%
2026-09-24T13:29:18+00:00	87.4%	79.9%	94.9%	91.0%	77.0%
2026-09-24T14:16:42+00:00	87.4%	79.5%	94.8%	91.0%	77.0%
2026-09-24T15:01:54+00:00	87.4%	79.5%	94.8%	91.0%	77.0%
2026-09-24T15:47:18+00:00	87.4%	79.9%	94.8%	91.0%	77.0%
2026-09-24T16:32:28+00:00	87.4%	79.9%	94.8%	91.0%	77.0%
2026-09-24T17:17:33+00:00	87.4%	79.9%	96.5%	91.0%	77.0%
2026-09-24T18:02:39+00:00	87.4%	79.9%	96.5%	91.0%	77.0%
2026-09-24T18:47:44+00:00	87.4%	79.9%	96.5%	91.0%	77.0%
2026-09-24T19:32:54+00:00	93.6%	79.9%	96.5%	91.0%	80.3%
2026-09-24T20:18:02+00:00	93.6%	79.9%	96.5%	91.0%	80.3%
2026-09-24T21:03:07+00:00	93.6%	79.9%	96.5%	91.0%	80.3%
2026-09-24T21:48:12+00:00	93.6%	79.9%	96.5%	91.0%	80.3%
2026-09-24T22:33:18+00:00	93.6%	79.9%	96.5%	93.6%	80.3%
2026-09-24T23:18:25+00:00	93.6%	81.3%	98.4%	93.6%	80.3%
2026-09-25T00:03:30+00:00	93.6%	81.3%	98.4%	93.6%	80.3%
2026-09-25T00:48:44+00:00	93.6%	81.3%	98.4%	93.6%	80.3%
2026-09-25T01:33:52+00:00	92.0%	81.3%	98.4%	93.6%	80.3%
2026-09-25T02:18:59+00:00	92.0%	81.3%	98.4%	93.6%	80.3%
2026-09-25T03:04:20+00:00	92.0%	81.3%	98.4%	93.6%	80.3%
2026-09-25T03:49:45+00:00	92.0%	81.3%	98.4%	93.6%	80.3%
2026-09-25T04:34:51+00:00	92.0%	81.3%	98.4%	93.6%	97.7%
2026-09-25T05:19:59+00:00	92.0%	81.3%	98.5%	93.6%	97.7%
2026-09-25T06:05:05+00:00	92.0%	81.3%	98.5%	93.6%	97.7%
2026-09-25T06:50:10+00:00	92.0%	81.3%	98.5%	93.6%	97.7%
2026-09-25T07:35:18+00:00	95.1%	81.3%	98.5%	93.6%	97.7%
2026-09-25T08:20:24+00:00	95.1%	81.3%	98.5%	93.6%	97.7%
2026-09-25T09:05:30+00:00	95.1%	81.3%	98.5%	93.6%	97.7%
2026-09-25T09:50:34+00:00	95.1%	81.3%	98.5%	93.6%	97.7%
2026-09-25T10:35:40+00:00	95.1%	81.3%	98.5%	93.6%	97.7%
2026-09-25T11:20:47+00:00	95.1%	98.6%	98.5%	93.6%	97.7%
2026-09-25T12:05:53+00:00	95.1%	98.6%	98.5%	93.6%	97.7%
2026-09-25T12:50:58+00:00	95.1%	98.6%	98.5%	93.6%	97.7%
2026-09-25T13:36:04+00:00	89.8%	98.6%	98.5%	93.6%	97.7%
2026-09-25T14:23:06+00:00	89.9%	98.6%	98.5%	93.6%	97.7%
2026-09-25T15:08:12+00:00	89.9%	98.6%	98.5%	93.6%	97.7%
2026-09-25T15:53:17+00:00	89.9%	98.6%	98.5%	93.6%	97.7%
2026-09-25T16:38:23+00:00	89.9%	98.6%	98.5%	93.6%	91.7%
2026-09-25T17:23:31+00:00	89.9%	98.6%	99.6%	93.6%	91.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	>99%	74.6°F	4.2°F	2026-09-25 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	99%	71.4°F	3.6°F	2026-09-25 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	94%	73.6°F	6.7°F	2026-09-24 12:00	Pending
ICON	92%	71.6°F	5.8°F	2026-09-25 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	90%	69.8°F	4.9°F	2026-09-25 06:00	Pending
National Blend	79%	67.0°F	4.4°F	2026-09-25 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	64.0°F	5.1°F	2026-09-25 02:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260930-TMAX-GE64
Opened Sep 23 · 11:06 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 64°F · Wed Sep 30

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗