KMSP / Wed Sep 30 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST95%Sep 25 · 17:23 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

99%

94%

92%

90%

Consensus

95%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 94.8¢Risks 23.69u

AIFSNO 5.2¢Risks 1.31u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +1.31u · AIFS −1.31u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	94.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	81.4%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	93.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	83.8%	—	—	—	—	71.7%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	72.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	78.8%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	88.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	94.7%	—	—	—	—	73.5%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	85.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	78.8%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	65.5%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	92.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	71.7%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	58.5%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	8.2%	—	—	—	—	63.0%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	10.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	14.3%	—	—	69.1%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	10.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	40.1%	—	—	—	—	76.9%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	44.6%	—	50.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	79.0%	—	84.6%	—	—	78.5%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	94.2%	—	12.5%	—	—	77.5%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	90.8%	—	58.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	84.8%	—	84.4%	—	—	71.1%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	83.7%	—	26.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	54.7%	5.9%	4.5%	—	—	53.4%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	69.2%	—	2.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	72.0%	41.6%	73.1%	46.5%	—	61.8%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	87.1%	—	72.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	66.3%	64.3%	68.3%	91.6%	—	62.3%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	66.7%	—	76.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	78.9%	70.4%	95.6%	75.5%	—	83.5%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	75.9%	—	89.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	78.2%	97.1%	66.3%	77.6%	—	91.3%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	65.9%	—	97.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	89.9%	89.2%	92.0%	64.7%	—	93.4%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	97.8%	99.8%	99.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	84.9%	83.9%	100.0%	97.7%	—	96.2%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	82.2%	99.7%	99.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	90.2%	99.9%	100.0%	93.7%	—	97.9%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	89.1%	99.6%	99.7%	—	—	97.3%
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	94.4%	98.9%	72.1%	87.4%	—	97.7%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	95.8%	99.6%	77.4%	—	—	47.0%
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	92.9%	97.4%	71.5%	94.5%	—	97.0%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	96.9%	100.0%	77.2%	—	—	98.6%
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	98.8%	99.9%	99.6%	99.7%	86.3%	99.3%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	98.9%	99.9%	99.9%	64.3%	—	99.5%
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	99.6%	99.9%	100.0%	99.2%	98.6%	99.8%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	99.6%	100.0%	100.0%	99.9%	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	99.9%	100.0%	100.0%	99.9%	99.3%	100.0%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	99.9%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	98.7%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	>99%	74.6°F	4.2°F	2026-09-25 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	99%	71.4°F	3.6°F	2026-09-25 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	94%	73.6°F	6.7°F	2026-09-24 12:00	Pending
ICON	92%	71.6°F	5.8°F	2026-09-25 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	90%	69.8°F	4.9°F	2026-09-25 06:00	Pending
National Blend	79%	67.0°F	4.4°F	2026-09-25 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	64.0°F	5.1°F	2026-09-25 02:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260930-TMAX-GE64
Opened Sep 23 · 11:06 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 64°F · Wed Sep 30

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗