KMSP / Wed Sep 30 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST85%Sep 29 · 14:56 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

94%

93%

89%

77%

70%

Consensus

85%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 81.5¢Risks 81.55u

ICONNO 18.4¢Risks 18.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +18.45u · ICON −18.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-29T14:56:56+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-27T14:40:08+00:00	68.5%	46.9%	78.4%	66.4%	59.1%
2026-09-27T15:25:29+00:00	68.5%	46.9%	78.4%	66.4%	59.1%
2026-09-27T16:10:34+00:00	68.5%	46.9%	78.4%	66.4%	59.1%
2026-09-27T16:55:40+00:00	68.5%	46.9%	78.4%	66.4%	39.9%
2026-09-27T17:40:48+00:00	68.5%	46.9%	81.4%	66.4%	39.9%
2026-09-27T18:26:00+00:00	68.5%	46.9%	81.4%	66.4%	39.9%
2026-09-27T19:11:09+00:00	68.5%	46.9%	81.4%	66.4%	39.9%
2026-09-27T19:56:18+00:00	58.2%	46.9%	81.4%	49.1%	39.9%
2026-09-27T20:41:28+00:00	58.2%	46.9%	81.4%	49.1%	39.9%
2026-09-27T21:26:32+00:00	58.2%	46.9%	81.4%	49.1%	39.9%
2026-09-27T22:11:37+00:00	58.2%	46.9%	81.4%	49.1%	39.9%
2026-09-27T22:56:44+00:00	58.2%	46.9%	81.4%	49.1%	39.9%
2026-09-27T23:41:50+00:00	58.2%	43.1%	82.9%	49.1%	39.9%
2026-09-28T00:26:56+00:00	58.2%	43.1%	82.9%	49.1%	39.9%
2026-09-28T01:12:05+00:00	58.2%	43.1%	82.9%	49.1%	39.9%
2026-09-28T01:57:12+00:00	69.3%	43.1%	82.9%	49.1%	39.9%
2026-09-28T02:42:18+00:00	69.3%	43.1%	82.9%	49.1%	39.9%
2026-09-28T03:27:39+00:00	69.3%	43.1%	82.9%	49.1%	39.9%
2026-09-28T04:13:29+00:00	69.3%	43.1%	82.9%	49.1%	39.9%
2026-09-28T04:58:35+00:00	69.3%	43.1%	82.9%	49.1%	67.5%
2026-09-28T05:43:45+00:00	69.3%	43.1%	87.2%	49.1%	67.5%
2026-09-28T06:28:55+00:00	69.3%	43.1%	87.2%	49.1%	67.5%
2026-09-28T07:14:00+00:00	69.3%	43.1%	87.2%	49.1%	67.5%
2026-09-28T07:59:35+00:00	78.6%	43.1%	87.2%	62.4%	67.5%
2026-09-28T08:45:29+00:00	78.6%	43.1%	87.2%	62.4%	67.5%
2026-09-28T09:30:34+00:00	78.6%	43.1%	87.2%	62.4%	67.5%
2026-09-28T10:15:39+00:00	78.6%	43.1%	87.2%	62.4%	67.5%
2026-09-28T11:00:51+00:00	78.6%	43.1%	87.2%	62.4%	67.5%
2026-09-28T11:46:06+00:00	78.6%	46.7%	88.2%	62.4%	67.5%
2026-09-28T12:31:13+00:00	78.6%	46.7%	88.2%	62.4%	67.5%
2026-09-28T13:16:22+00:00	78.6%	46.7%	88.2%	62.4%	67.5%
2026-09-28T14:01:29+00:00	77.9%	46.7%	88.2%	62.4%	67.5%
2026-09-29T04:21:27+00:00	83.1%	46.7%	92.5%	72.8%	64.4%
2026-09-29T05:06:55+00:00	83.1%	46.7%	93.6%	72.8%	69.5%
2026-09-29T05:52:03+00:00	83.1%	46.7%	93.6%	72.8%	69.5%
2026-09-29T06:37:10+00:00	83.1%	46.7%	93.6%	72.8%	69.5%
2026-09-29T07:22:36+00:00	83.1%	46.7%	93.6%	72.8%	69.5%
2026-09-29T08:08:17+00:00	87.2%	46.7%	93.6%	92.6%	69.5%
2026-09-29T08:53:32+00:00	87.2%	46.7%	93.6%	92.6%	69.5%
2026-09-29T09:38:38+00:00	87.2%	46.7%	93.6%	92.6%	69.5%
2026-09-29T10:23:43+00:00	87.2%	46.7%	93.6%	92.6%	69.5%
2026-09-29T11:08:54+00:00	87.2%	76.7%	93.6%	92.6%	69.5%
2026-09-29T11:54:07+00:00	87.2%	76.7%	93.6%	92.6%	69.5%
2026-09-29T12:39:11+00:00	87.2%	76.7%	93.6%	92.6%	69.5%
2026-09-29T13:24:17+00:00	87.2%	76.7%	93.6%	92.6%	69.5%
2026-09-29T14:11:41+00:00	89.2%	76.6%	93.6%	92.6%	69.5%
2026-09-29T14:56:56+00:00	89.2%	76.6%	93.6%	92.6%	69.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	94%	77.9°F	3.5°F	2026-09-28 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	93%	77.9°F	3.7°F	2026-09-29 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	89%	77.5°F	4.0°F	2026-09-29 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	77%	74.9°F	3.3°F	2026-09-29 00:00	Pending
ICON	70%	74.3°F	3.5°F	2026-09-29 00:00	Pending
National Blend	68%	74.0°F	3.3°F	2026-09-29 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	73.0°F	3.1°F	2026-09-29 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260930-TMAX-GE73
Opened Sep 27 · 14:40 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 73°F · Wed Sep 30

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗