KMSP / Wed Sep 30 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST85%Sep 29 · 14:56 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

94%

93%

89%

77%

70%

Consensus

85%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 81.5¢Risks 81.55u

ICONNO 18.4¢Risks 18.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +18.45u · ICON −18.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	2.1%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	38.0%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	26.5%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	26.5%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	16.1%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	18.1%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	0.9%	—	—	21.7%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	27.8%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	9.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	28.7%	—	36.3%	—	—	28.2%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	8.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	56.3%	—	0.5%	—	—	25.4%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	45.5%	—	10.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	32.4%	—	—	18.0%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	30.3%	—	1.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	8.0%	0.1%	0.1%	—	—	7.5%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	15.8%	3.6%	16.6%	4.7%	—	9.9%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	31.4%	—	15.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	10.9%	10.0%	12.0%	39.2%	—	9.0%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	17.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	17.9%	11.8%	49.2%	15.1%	—	22.8%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	14.5%	—	30.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	15.4%	54.0%	8.4%	14.9%	—	33.0%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	7.6%	—	56.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	27.2%	25.8%	31.5%	6.6%	—	35.3%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	53.4%	81.6%	67.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	17.2%	16.1%	94.6%	50.9%	—	42.2%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	13.5%	75.0%	88.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	21.6%	83.4%	93.9%	28.9%	—	48.2%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	18.4%	70.8%	71.6%	—	—	41.5%
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	27.1%	53.9%	5.4%	14.7%	—	42.3%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	29.9%	65.6%	6.6%	—	—	1.0%
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	19.7%	34.9%	4.0%	23.5%	—	33.0%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	29.8%	84.4%	5.0%	—	—	42.6%
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	70.8%	56.5%	61.8%	8.5%	48.9%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	40.0%	74.2%	68.5%	1.5%	—	50.0%
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	51.2%	69.0%	81.0%	41.9%	33.1%	58.1%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	48.8%	74.7%	82.5%	61.9%	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	56.2%	83.4%	84.9%	64.6%	35.4%	84.1%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	62.7%	91.8%	93.2%	68.7%	—	85.0%
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	60.6%	95.0%	98.1%	84.3%	83.5%	82.7%
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	66.2%	94.6%	99.0%	75.8%	—	90.2%
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	68.2%	92.2%	99.8%	86.2%	85.4%	87.8%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	54.5%	93.0%	99.7%	53.0%	—	81.9%
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	85.8%	95.9%	99.9%	51.6%	81.9%	87.5%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	6.8%	83.0%	99.5%	63.0%	—	78.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	94%	77.9°F	3.5°F	2026-09-28 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	93%	77.9°F	3.7°F	2026-09-29 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	89%	77.5°F	4.0°F	2026-09-29 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	77%	74.9°F	3.3°F	2026-09-29 00:00	Pending
ICON	70%	74.3°F	3.5°F	2026-09-29 00:00	Pending
National Blend	68%	74.0°F	3.3°F	2026-09-29 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	73.0°F	3.1°F	2026-09-29 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260930-TMAX-GE73
Opened Sep 27 · 14:40 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 73°F · Wed Sep 30

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗