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KMSP / Wed Sep 30 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST69%Sep 30 · 03:45 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
81%
HRES
79%
AIFS
79%
ICON
68%
EPS
55%
Consensus
69%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 67.9¢Risks 67.85u
VS
EPSNO 32.1¢Risks 32.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +32.15u · EPS −32.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 77.1% · 2026-09-29T15:42:18+00:00AIFS Single: 77.1% · 2026-09-29T16:27:42+00:00AIFS Single: 77.1% · 2026-09-29T17:12:52+00:00AIFS Single: 77.1% · 2026-09-29T17:57:59+00:00AIFS Single: 77.1% · 2026-09-29T18:43:06+00:00AIFS Single: 74.8% · 2026-09-29T19:28:14+00:00AIFS Single: 74.8% · 2026-09-29T20:13:35+00:00AIFS Single: 74.8% · 2026-09-29T20:58:48+00:00AIFS Single: 74.8% · 2026-09-29T21:43:56+00:00AIFS Single: 74.8% · 2026-09-29T22:29:02+00:00AIFS Single: 74.8% · 2026-09-29T23:14:16+00:00AIFS Single: 74.8% · 2026-09-29T23:59:28+00:00AIFS Single: 74.8% · 2026-09-30T00:44:34+00:00AIFS Single: 74.8% · 2026-09-30T01:29:52+00:00AIFS Single: 78.6% · 2026-09-30T02:14:59+00:00AIFS Single: 78.6% · 2026-09-30T03:00:11+00:00AIFS Single: 78.6% · 2026-09-30T03:45:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.8% · 2026-09-29T15:42:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.8% · 2026-09-29T16:27:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.8% · 2026-09-29T17:12:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.8% · 2026-09-29T17:57:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.8% · 2026-09-29T18:43:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.8% · 2026-09-29T19:28:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.8% · 2026-09-29T20:13:35+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.8% · 2026-09-29T20:58:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.8% · 2026-09-29T21:43:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.8% · 2026-09-29T22:29:02+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.8% · 2026-09-29T23:14:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.8% · 2026-09-29T23:59:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.8% · 2026-09-30T00:44:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.8% · 2026-09-30T01:29:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.8% · 2026-09-30T02:14:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.8% · 2026-09-30T03:00:11+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.8% · 2026-09-30T03:45:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 83.1% · 2026-09-29T15:42:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 83.1% · 2026-09-29T16:27:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 81.7% · 2026-09-29T17:12:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 81.7% · 2026-09-29T17:57:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 81.7% · 2026-09-29T18:43:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 81.7% · 2026-09-29T19:28:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 81.7% · 2026-09-29T20:13:35+00:00WeatherNext 2: 81.7% · 2026-09-29T20:58:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 81.7% · 2026-09-29T21:43:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 81.7% · 2026-09-29T22:29:02+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.9% · 2026-09-29T23:14:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.9% · 2026-09-29T23:59:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.9% · 2026-09-30T00:44:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.9% · 2026-09-30T01:29:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.9% · 2026-09-30T02:14:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.9% · 2026-09-30T03:00:11+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.9% · 2026-09-30T03:45:23+00:00IFS HRES: 81.8% · 2026-09-29T15:42:18+00:00IFS HRES: 81.8% · 2026-09-29T16:27:42+00:00IFS HRES: 81.8% · 2026-09-29T17:12:52+00:00IFS HRES: 81.8% · 2026-09-29T17:57:59+00:00IFS HRES: 81.8% · 2026-09-29T18:43:06+00:00IFS HRES: 78.9% · 2026-09-29T19:28:14+00:00IFS HRES: 78.9% · 2026-09-29T20:13:35+00:00IFS HRES: 78.9% · 2026-09-29T20:58:48+00:00IFS HRES: 78.9% · 2026-09-29T21:43:56+00:00IFS HRES: 78.9% · 2026-09-29T22:29:02+00:00IFS HRES: 78.9% · 2026-09-29T23:14:16+00:00IFS HRES: 78.9% · 2026-09-29T23:59:28+00:00IFS HRES: 78.9% · 2026-09-30T00:44:34+00:00IFS HRES: 78.9% · 2026-09-30T01:29:52+00:00IFS HRES: 78.9% · 2026-09-30T02:14:59+00:00IFS HRES: 78.9% · 2026-09-30T03:00:11+00:00IFS HRES: 78.9% · 2026-09-30T03:45:23+00:00ICON: 47.7% · 2026-09-29T15:42:18+00:00ICON: 67.5% · 2026-09-29T16:27:42+00:00ICON: 67.5% · 2026-09-29T17:12:52+00:00ICON: 67.5% · 2026-09-29T17:57:59+00:00ICON: 67.5% · 2026-09-29T18:43:06+00:00ICON: 67.5% · 2026-09-29T19:28:14+00:00ICON: 67.5% · 2026-09-29T20:13:35+00:00ICON: 67.5% · 2026-09-29T20:58:48+00:00ICON: 67.5% · 2026-09-29T21:43:56+00:00ICON: 67.5% · 2026-09-29T22:29:02+00:00ICON: 67.5% · 2026-09-29T23:14:16+00:00ICON: 67.5% · 2026-09-29T23:59:28+00:00ICON: 67.5% · 2026-09-30T00:44:34+00:00ICON: 67.5% · 2026-09-30T01:29:52+00:00ICON: 67.5% · 2026-09-30T02:14:59+00:00ICON: 67.5% · 2026-09-30T03:00:11+00:00ICON: 67.5% · 2026-09-30T03:45:23+00:0009-29 15:4209-29 21:4309-30 03:45
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-09-30T03:45:23+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-09-29T15:42:18+00:0077.1%54.8%83.1%81.8%47.7%
2026-09-29T16:27:42+00:0077.1%54.8%83.1%81.8%67.5%
2026-09-29T17:12:52+00:0077.1%54.8%81.7%81.8%67.5%
2026-09-29T17:57:59+00:0077.1%54.8%81.7%81.8%67.5%
2026-09-29T18:43:06+00:0077.1%54.8%81.7%81.8%67.5%
2026-09-29T19:28:14+00:0074.8%54.8%81.7%78.9%67.5%
2026-09-29T20:13:35+00:0074.8%54.8%81.7%78.9%67.5%
2026-09-29T20:58:48+00:0074.8%54.8%81.7%78.9%67.5%
2026-09-29T21:43:56+00:0074.8%54.8%81.7%78.9%67.5%
2026-09-29T22:29:02+00:0074.8%54.8%81.7%78.9%67.5%
2026-09-29T23:14:16+00:0074.8%54.8%80.9%78.9%67.5%
2026-09-29T23:59:28+00:0074.8%54.8%80.9%78.9%67.5%
2026-09-30T00:44:34+00:0074.8%54.8%80.9%78.9%67.5%
2026-09-30T01:29:52+00:0074.8%54.8%80.9%78.9%67.5%
2026-09-30T02:14:59+00:0078.6%54.8%80.9%78.9%67.5%
2026-09-30T03:00:11+00:0078.6%54.8%80.9%78.9%67.5%
2026-09-30T03:45:23+00:0078.6%54.8%80.9%78.9%67.5%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 281%77.5°F3.4°F2026-09-29 12:00Pending
IFS HRES79%77.5°F3.7°F2026-09-29 12:00Pending
AIFS Single79%77.7°F4.0°F2026-09-29 18:00Pending
ICON68%76.1°F3.5°F2026-09-29 12:00Pending
NWS forecast56%75.0°F3.1°F2026-09-29 15:00Pending
IFS Ensemble55%74.9°F3.3°F2026-09-29 00:00Pending
National Blend44%74.0°F3.3°F2026-09-29 06:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260930-TMAX-GE75
Opened Sep 29 · 15:42 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 75°F · Wed Sep 30

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗