KMSP / Wed Sep 30 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST69%Sep 30 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

81%

79%

79%

68%

55%

Consensus

69%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 67.9¢Risks 67.85u

EPSNO 32.1¢Risks 32.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +32.15u · EPS −32.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	1.1%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	18.6%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	14.3%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	18.6%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	—	10.4%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	11.8%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	0.4%	—	—	14.3%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	5.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	25.7%	—	—	18.9%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	43.7%	—	0.2%	—	—	16.4%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	33.3%	—	6.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	22.1%	—	21.7%	—	—	10.7%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	19.8%	—	0.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	4.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	3.8%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	8.7%	1.6%	9.3%	2.1%	—	5.1%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	19.9%	—	8.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	5.5%	4.9%	6.2%	26.0%	—	4.4%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	9.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	9.7%	5.8%	34.4%	7.8%	—	12.9%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	7.4%	—	18.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	7.8%	38.2%	3.8%	7.5%	—	20.1%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	40.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	15.2%	14.3%	18.4%	2.7%	—	21.3%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	36.6%	68.2%	50.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	8.3%	7.7%	87.8%	33.8%	—	26.2%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	6.0%	58.9%	77.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	10.6%	69.5%	86.1%	15.4%	—	30.6%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	8.4%	52.8%	53.8%	—	—	24.6%
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	13.6%	34.8%	1.8%	6.2%	—	24.7%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	15.2%	46.0%	2.2%	—	—	0.2%
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	8.6%	18.3%	1.2%	10.8%	—	17.0%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	14.4%	68.4%	1.5%	—	—	23.6%
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	22.1%	50.0%	35.1%	40.3%	2.8%	28.2%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	20.6%	53.4%	46.6%	0.3%	—	28.6%
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	28.9%	46.5%	61.5%	21.5%	15.3%	35.2%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	26.3%	52.4%	63.0%	38.1%	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	32.0%	63.4%	65.8%	40.1%	15.9%	64.6%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	37.3%	77.2%	80.0%	43.6%	—	65.1%
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	34.3%	83.5%	92.1%	63.2%	61.9%	60.6%
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	39.0%	81.8%	95.0%	50.0%	—	72.4%
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	40.0%	75.5%	98.2%	64.2%	62.8%	66.9%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	26.0%	76.4%	97.8%	24.8%	—	56.0%
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	60.9%	82.9%	99.1%	22.6%	54.7%	63.9%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	1.0%	54.9%	95.9%	30.9%	—	48.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	81%	77.5°F	3.4°F	2026-09-29 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	79%	77.5°F	3.7°F	2026-09-29 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	79%	77.7°F	4.0°F	2026-09-29 18:00	Pending
ICON	68%	76.1°F	3.5°F	2026-09-29 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	75.0°F	3.1°F	2026-09-29 15:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	55%	74.9°F	3.3°F	2026-09-29 00:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	74.0°F	3.3°F	2026-09-29 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260930-TMAX-GE75
Opened Sep 29 · 15:42 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 75°F · Wed Sep 30

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗