KMSP / Thu Oct 1 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 79°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Sep 27 · 02:34 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 4.1¢Risks 1.03u

WN2NO 95.9¢Risks 23.97u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +23.97u · WN2 −23.97u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-27T02:34:32+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-24T08:13:27+00:00	11.4%	0.4%	7.4%	10.1%	0.6%
2026-09-24T08:58:37+00:00	11.4%	0.4%	7.4%	10.1%	0.6%
2026-09-24T09:43:42+00:00	11.4%	0.4%	7.4%	10.1%	0.6%
2026-09-24T10:28:47+00:00	11.4%	0.4%	7.4%	10.1%	0.6%
2026-09-24T19:32:54+00:00	19.4%	0.0%	8.4%	10.2%	26.7%
2026-09-24T20:18:02+00:00	19.4%	0.0%	8.4%	10.2%	26.7%
2026-09-24T21:03:07+00:00	19.4%	0.0%	8.4%	10.2%	26.7%
2026-09-24T21:48:12+00:00	19.4%	0.0%	8.4%	10.2%	26.7%
2026-09-24T22:33:18+00:00	19.4%	0.0%	8.4%	52.5%	26.7%
2026-09-24T23:18:25+00:00	19.4%	0.1%	11.6%	52.5%	26.7%
2026-09-25T00:03:30+00:00	19.4%	0.1%	11.6%	52.5%	26.7%
2026-09-25T00:48:44+00:00	19.4%	0.1%	11.6%	52.5%	26.7%
2026-09-25T01:33:52+00:00	8.1%	0.1%	11.6%	52.5%	26.7%
2026-09-25T02:18:59+00:00	8.1%	0.1%	11.6%	52.5%	26.7%
2026-09-25T03:04:21+00:00	8.1%	0.1%	11.6%	52.5%	26.7%
2026-09-25T03:49:45+00:00	8.1%	0.1%	11.6%	52.5%	26.7%
2026-09-25T04:34:51+00:00	8.1%	0.1%	11.6%	52.5%	43.7%
2026-09-25T05:19:59+00:00	8.1%	0.1%	12.9%	52.5%	43.7%
2026-09-25T06:05:05+00:00	8.1%	0.1%	12.9%	52.5%	43.7%
2026-09-25T06:50:10+00:00	8.1%	0.1%	12.9%	52.5%	43.7%
2026-09-25T07:35:18+00:00	19.9%	0.1%	12.9%	52.5%	43.7%
2026-09-25T08:20:24+00:00	19.9%	0.1%	12.9%	52.5%	43.7%
2026-09-25T09:05:30+00:00	19.9%	0.1%	12.9%	52.5%	43.7%
2026-09-25T09:50:34+00:00	19.9%	0.1%	12.9%	52.5%	43.7%
2026-09-25T10:35:40+00:00	19.9%	0.1%	12.9%	52.5%	43.7%
2026-09-25T11:20:47+00:00	19.9%	3.4%	12.9%	52.5%	43.7%
2026-09-25T12:05:53+00:00	19.9%	3.4%	12.9%	52.5%	43.7%
2026-09-25T12:50:58+00:00	19.9%	3.4%	12.9%	52.5%	43.7%
2026-09-25T13:36:04+00:00	25.0%	3.4%	12.9%	52.5%	43.7%
2026-09-25T14:23:06+00:00	25.0%	3.6%	12.9%	52.5%	43.7%
2026-09-25T15:08:12+00:00	25.0%	3.6%	12.9%	52.5%	43.7%
2026-09-25T15:53:17+00:00	25.0%	3.4%	12.9%	52.5%	43.7%
2026-09-25T16:38:23+00:00	25.0%	3.4%	12.9%	52.5%	45.4%
2026-09-25T17:23:31+00:00	25.0%	3.4%	12.2%	52.5%	45.4%
2026-09-25T18:08:50+00:00	25.0%	3.4%	12.2%	52.5%	45.4%
2026-09-25T18:54:07+00:00	25.0%	3.4%	12.2%	52.5%	45.4%
2026-09-25T19:39:41+00:00	39.6%	3.4%	12.2%	25.4%	45.4%
2026-09-25T20:25:17+00:00	39.6%	3.4%	12.2%	25.4%	45.4%
2026-09-25T21:10:23+00:00	39.6%	3.4%	12.2%	25.4%	45.4%
2026-09-25T21:55:28+00:00	39.6%	3.4%	12.2%	25.4%	45.4%
2026-09-25T22:40:33+00:00	39.6%	3.4%	12.2%	25.4%	45.4%
2026-09-25T23:25:38+00:00	39.6%	3.3%	5.6%	25.4%	45.4%
2026-09-26T00:10:44+00:00	39.6%	3.3%	5.6%	25.4%	45.4%
2026-09-26T00:55:54+00:00	39.6%	3.3%	5.6%	25.4%	45.4%
2026-09-26T01:41:05+00:00	7.7%	3.3%	5.6%	25.4%	45.4%
2026-09-26T02:26:25+00:00	7.7%	3.3%	5.6%	25.4%	45.4%
2026-09-26T03:11:46+00:00	7.7%	3.3%	5.6%	25.4%	45.4%
2026-09-26T03:56:57+00:00	7.7%	3.3%	5.6%	25.4%	45.4%
2026-09-26T04:42:08+00:00	7.7%	3.3%	5.6%	25.4%	5.6%
2026-09-26T05:27:19+00:00	7.7%	3.3%	5.4%	25.4%	5.6%
2026-09-26T06:12:26+00:00	7.7%	3.3%	5.4%	25.4%	5.6%
2026-09-26T06:57:31+00:00	7.7%	3.3%	5.4%	25.4%	5.6%
2026-09-26T07:43:05+00:00	9.8%	3.3%	5.4%	12.5%	5.6%
2026-09-26T08:28:40+00:00	9.8%	3.3%	5.4%	12.5%	5.6%
2026-09-26T09:13:46+00:00	9.8%	3.3%	5.4%	12.5%	5.6%
2026-09-26T09:58:52+00:00	9.8%	3.3%	5.4%	12.5%	5.6%
2026-09-26T10:44:05+00:00	9.8%	3.3%	5.4%	12.5%	5.6%
2026-09-26T11:29:18+00:00	9.8%	6.1%	4.8%	12.5%	5.6%
2026-09-26T12:14:30+00:00	9.8%	6.1%	4.8%	12.5%	5.6%
2026-09-26T12:59:36+00:00	9.8%	6.1%	4.8%	12.5%	5.6%
2026-09-26T13:44:45+00:00	11.6%	6.1%	4.8%	12.5%	5.6%
2026-09-26T14:32:11+00:00	11.6%	6.1%	4.8%	12.5%	5.5%
2026-09-26T15:17:30+00:00	11.6%	6.1%	4.8%	12.5%	5.5%
2026-09-26T16:02:36+00:00	11.6%	6.1%	4.8%	12.5%	5.5%
2026-09-26T16:47:43+00:00	11.6%	6.1%	4.8%	12.5%	6.3%
2026-09-26T17:32:51+00:00	11.6%	6.1%	4.8%	12.5%	6.3%
2026-09-26T18:18:00+00:00	11.6%	6.1%	4.8%	12.5%	6.3%
2026-09-26T19:03:08+00:00	11.6%	6.1%	4.8%	12.5%	6.3%
2026-09-26T19:48:19+00:00	2.9%	6.1%	4.8%	2.2%	6.3%
2026-09-26T20:33:27+00:00	2.9%	6.1%	4.8%	2.2%	6.3%
2026-09-26T21:18:33+00:00	2.9%	6.1%	4.8%	2.2%	6.3%
2026-09-26T22:03:38+00:00	2.9%	6.1%	4.8%	2.2%	6.3%
2026-09-26T22:48:47+00:00	2.9%	6.1%	4.8%	2.2%	6.3%
2026-09-27T01:49:26+00:00	3.9%	5.9%	1.9%	2.2%	6.3%
2026-09-27T02:34:32+00:00	3.9%	5.9%	1.9%	2.2%	6.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	6%	69.6°F	5.8°F	2026-09-26 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	6%	72.4°F	3.9°F	2026-09-26 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	4%	69.8°F	4.9°F	2026-09-26 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	2%	66.8°F	5.8°F	2026-09-26 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	2%	68.0°F	5.1°F	2026-09-26 14:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	2%	69.8°F	4.2°F	2026-09-26 12:00	Pending
National Blend	1%	66.6°F	5.3°F	2026-09-26 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 79°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261001-TMAX-GE79
Opened Sep 24 · 08:13 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis runs hot-for-here: 79°F+ · Thu Oct 1

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗