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KMSP / Thu Oct 1 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 79°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Sep 27 · 02:34 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
6%
EPS
6%
AIFS
4%
HRES
2%
WN2
2%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 4.1¢Risks 1.03u
VS
WN2NO 95.9¢Risks 23.97u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +23.97u · WN2 −23.97u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 17.5% · 2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.8% · 2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 22.4% · 2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 39.5% · 2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 43.1% · 2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.5% · 2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.3% · 2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.1% · 2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 20.4% · 2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.8% · 2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.9% · 2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.2% · 2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.0% · 2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.3% · 2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 19.3% · 2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.0% · 2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 33.5% · 2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.1% · 2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.7% · 2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.0% · 2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.1% · 2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.5% · 2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.5% · 2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.6% · 2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.2% · 2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.0% · 2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.7% · 2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.7% · 2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.7% · 2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 17.4% · 2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.4% · 2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.3% · 2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.4% · 2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 22.1% · 2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 22.8% · 2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.1% · 2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.0% · 2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.2% · 2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.1% · 2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 17.3% · 2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.8% · 2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.5% · 2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 14.1% · 2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 21.7% · 2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.8% · 2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 26.7% · 2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 14.9% · 2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 7.9% · 2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 56.7% · 2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.9% · 2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 42.9% · 2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 35.6% · 2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 17.3% · 2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.9% · 2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.4% · 2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.5% · 2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.5% · 2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.3% · 2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.4% · 2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 4.2% · 2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 2.0% · 2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 3.4% · 2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.4% · 2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.4% · 2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.2% · 2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.2% · 2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 10.5% · 2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 8.7% · 2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 10.0% · 2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.1% · 2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 8.9% · 2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.8% · 2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.1% · 2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 8.6% · 2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 11.0% · 2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 11.9% · 2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.5% · 2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.6% · 2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.8% · 2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.2% · 2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.1% · 2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.7% · 2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.2% · 2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.4% · 2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.2% · 2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.8% · 2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.2% · 2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:0009-16 12:0009-24 06:0010-01 18:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS*
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:000.1%————0.2%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:0017.5%—————
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:001.8%————10.5%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:0022.4%—————
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:0039.5%————8.7%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:0043.1%—————
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:003.5%————10.0%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:006.3%—————
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:008.1%————6.1%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:0020.4%—————
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:002.8%————8.9%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:000.9%—————
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:001.2%————5.8%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:000.2%—————
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:000.1%————7.1%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:000.0%—————
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:000.6%————8.6%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:000.1%—————
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:002.0%————11.0%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:001.3%—0.0%———
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:0019.3%————11.9%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:008.0%—————
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:0033.5%—1.1%——7.5%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:0014.1%—17.3%———
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:000.5%————4.6%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:008.7%—————
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:0011.0%—3.8%——0.8%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:0014.1%—0.5%———
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:007.5%—14.1%——1.2%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:004.5%—21.7%———
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:003.6%0.0%0.8%——2.1%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:002.2%—26.7%———
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:006.0%—14.9%0.0%—2.7%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:001.7%—0.2%———
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:005.7%22.1%7.9%4.2%—3.2%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:007.7%—56.7%———
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:0017.4%22.8%0.0%2.0%—2.4%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:001.4%—0.9%———
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:002.3%1.1%42.9%3.4%—2.2%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:002.4%—35.6%———
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:000.3%1.0%17.3%0.4%—0.8%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:000.4%0.2%4.9%———
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:000.2%0.1%0.4%0.1%—0.2%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:000.2%0.1%0.1%———
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:000.3%0.1%0.1%0.1%—0.1%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:000.1%0.1%0.1%——0.1%
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:000.1%0.1%0.2%0.4%—0.1%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:000.0%0.1%0.1%———
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.1%0.1%—0.0%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.2%———
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.5%0.1%—0.0%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%1.5%0.1%—0.0%
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.3%0.2%0.0%0.0%
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.1%0.1%——
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.4%0.1%0.0%0.0%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%—0.0%
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
ICON6%69.6°F5.8°F2026-09-26 12:00Pending
IFS Ensemble6%72.4°F3.9°F2026-09-26 00:00Pending
AIFS Single4%69.8°F4.9°F2026-09-26 18:00Pending
IFS HRES2%66.8°F5.8°F2026-09-26 12:00Pending
NWS forecast2%68.0°F5.1°F2026-09-26 14:00Pending
WeatherNext 22%69.8°F4.2°F2026-09-26 12:00Pending
National Blend1%66.6°F5.3°F2026-09-26 06:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 79°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261001-TMAX-GE79
Opened Sep 24 · 08:13 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis runs hot-for-here: 79°F+ · Thu Oct 1

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗