KMSP / Fri Oct 2 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST45%Oct 01 · 02:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

77%

52%

51%

41%

12%

Consensus

45%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 44.8¢Risks 44.80u

ICONNO 55.2¢Risks 55.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +55.20u · ICON −55.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-01T02:26:04+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-28T03:27:39+00:00	80.8%	79.5%	84.1%	56.1%	69.1%
2026-09-28T04:13:29+00:00	80.8%	79.5%	84.1%	56.1%	69.1%
2026-09-28T04:58:35+00:00	80.8%	79.5%	84.1%	56.1%	38.4%
2026-09-28T05:43:45+00:00	80.8%	79.5%	84.1%	56.1%	38.4%
2026-09-28T06:28:55+00:00	80.8%	79.5%	84.1%	56.1%	38.4%
2026-09-28T07:14:00+00:00	80.8%	79.5%	84.1%	56.1%	38.4%
2026-09-28T07:59:35+00:00	76.8%	79.5%	84.1%	64.7%	38.4%
2026-09-28T08:45:29+00:00	76.8%	79.5%	84.1%	64.7%	38.4%
2026-09-28T09:30:34+00:00	76.8%	79.5%	84.1%	64.7%	38.4%
2026-09-28T10:15:39+00:00	76.8%	79.5%	84.1%	64.7%	38.4%
2026-09-28T11:00:51+00:00	76.8%	79.5%	84.1%	64.7%	38.4%
2026-09-28T11:46:06+00:00	76.8%	78.5%	78.4%	64.7%	38.4%
2026-09-28T12:31:13+00:00	76.8%	78.5%	78.4%	64.7%	38.4%
2026-09-28T13:16:22+00:00	76.8%	78.5%	78.4%	64.7%	38.4%
2026-09-28T14:01:29+00:00	69.8%	78.5%	78.4%	64.7%	38.4%
2026-09-29T15:42:19+00:00	64.3%	76.2%	56.0%	58.8%	31.3%
2026-09-29T16:27:42+00:00	64.3%	76.2%	56.0%	58.8%	43.9%
2026-09-29T17:12:52+00:00	64.3%	76.2%	54.3%	58.8%	43.9%
2026-09-29T17:57:59+00:00	64.3%	76.2%	54.3%	58.8%	43.9%
2026-09-29T18:43:06+00:00	64.3%	76.2%	54.3%	58.8%	43.9%
2026-09-29T19:28:14+00:00	65.2%	76.2%	54.3%	57.1%	43.9%
2026-09-29T20:13:35+00:00	65.2%	76.2%	54.3%	57.1%	43.9%
2026-09-29T20:58:48+00:00	65.2%	76.2%	54.3%	57.1%	43.9%
2026-09-29T21:43:56+00:00	65.2%	76.2%	54.3%	57.1%	43.9%
2026-09-29T22:29:02+00:00	65.2%	76.2%	54.3%	57.1%	43.9%
2026-09-29T23:14:16+00:00	65.2%	77.7%	53.2%	57.1%	43.9%
2026-09-29T23:59:28+00:00	65.2%	77.7%	53.2%	57.1%	43.9%
2026-09-30T00:44:34+00:00	65.2%	77.7%	53.2%	57.1%	43.9%
2026-09-30T01:29:52+00:00	65.2%	77.7%	53.2%	57.1%	43.9%
2026-09-30T02:14:59+00:00	58.2%	77.7%	53.2%	57.1%	43.9%
2026-09-30T03:00:11+00:00	58.2%	77.7%	53.2%	57.1%	43.9%
2026-09-30T03:45:23+00:00	58.2%	77.7%	53.2%	57.1%	43.9%
2026-09-30T04:30:46+00:00	58.2%	77.7%	53.2%	57.1%	18.9%
2026-09-30T05:16:20+00:00	58.2%	77.7%	52.2%	57.1%	18.9%
2026-09-30T06:01:28+00:00	58.2%	77.7%	52.2%	57.1%	18.9%
2026-09-30T06:46:37+00:00	58.2%	77.7%	52.2%	57.1%	18.9%
2026-09-30T07:32:10+00:00	58.2%	77.7%	52.2%	57.1%	18.9%
2026-09-30T08:18:15+00:00	58.2%	77.7%	52.2%	43.2%	18.9%
2026-09-30T09:03:35+00:00	58.2%	77.7%	52.2%	43.2%	18.9%
2026-09-30T09:48:42+00:00	58.2%	77.7%	52.2%	43.2%	18.9%
2026-09-30T10:34:51+00:00	61.4%	77.7%	52.2%	43.2%	18.9%
2026-09-30T11:20:02+00:00	61.4%	79.4%	45.5%	43.2%	18.9%
2026-09-30T12:05:14+00:00	61.4%	79.4%	45.5%	43.2%	18.9%
2026-09-30T12:50:20+00:00	61.4%	79.4%	45.5%	43.2%	18.9%
2026-09-30T13:35:30+00:00	57.6%	79.4%	45.5%	43.2%	18.9%
2026-09-30T14:23:09+00:00	57.6%	79.4%	45.5%	43.2%	18.9%
2026-09-30T15:08:15+00:00	57.6%	79.4%	45.5%	43.2%	18.9%
2026-09-30T15:53:31+00:00	57.6%	79.4%	45.5%	43.2%	18.9%
2026-09-30T16:38:49+00:00	57.6%	79.4%	45.5%	43.2%	12.2%
2026-09-30T17:23:57+00:00	57.6%	79.4%	51.1%	43.2%	12.2%
2026-09-30T18:09:05+00:00	57.6%	79.4%	51.1%	43.2%	12.2%
2026-09-30T18:54:14+00:00	57.6%	79.4%	51.1%	43.2%	12.2%
2026-09-30T19:39:20+00:00	62.3%	79.4%	51.1%	41.3%	12.2%
2026-09-30T20:24:33+00:00	62.3%	79.4%	51.1%	41.3%	12.2%
2026-09-30T21:09:39+00:00	62.3%	79.4%	51.1%	41.3%	12.2%
2026-09-30T21:54:45+00:00	62.3%	79.4%	51.1%	41.3%	12.2%
2026-09-30T22:39:51+00:00	62.3%	79.4%	51.1%	41.3%	12.2%
2026-09-30T23:24:56+00:00	62.3%	77.4%	52.2%	41.3%	12.2%
2026-10-01T00:10:20+00:00	62.3%	77.4%	52.2%	41.3%	12.2%
2026-10-01T00:55:50+00:00	62.3%	77.4%	52.2%	41.3%	12.2%
2026-10-01T01:40:56+00:00	51.0%	77.4%	52.2%	41.3%	12.2%
2026-10-01T02:26:04+00:00	51.0%	77.4%	52.2%	41.3%	12.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	77%	65.7°F	2.9°F	2026-09-30 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	64.0°F	3.4°F	2026-09-30 15:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	52%	63.7°F	3.6°F	2026-09-30 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	51%	63.6°F	4.2°F	2026-09-30 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	41%	62.6°F	4.1°F	2026-09-30 12:00	Pending
National Blend	39%	62.9°F	2.1°F	2026-09-30 06:00	Pending
ICON	12%	59.4°F	3.5°F	2026-09-30 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261002-TMAX-GE64
Opened Sep 28 · 03:27 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 64°F · Fri Oct 2

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗